Now that we’re past the halfway point in the season, there simply aren’t fifteen takeaways every week. There’s nothing to say about like a third of the league. Who cares what the Lions did last week? I don’t think I’ve mentioned the Raiders once this year and I don’t plan on starting now.
From now on, I’ll be doing five to ten key takeaways and expounding on them a bit more instead of throwing in those extra five nonsense-filled ones.
Don’t worry, you’ll still get you weekly Josh/Jaheim rant and the MVP tracker isn’t going away either. With that said, there’s only one place to start from Week 9.
1. It’s time to Billieve
HUH
There’s no way that’s real. I refuse to believe it. FAKE NEWS.
Leaving that obviously preposterous stat aside, the Bills showed a side of them that I believed was theoretically plausible, but realistically almost impossible. They essentially abandoned the running game, knowing that the best way to beat Russell Wilson is to outscore him, and it actually worked. The defense obviously wasn’t perfect as they surrendered 34 points, but they forced four turnovers from Wilson and largely stymied Tyler Lockett. (There’s no stopping DK Metcalf anymore and he knows it.)
That is the quintessential recipe for winning playoff games in the modern NFL: an elite performance from your quarterback and opportunistic plays by your defense. That’s how Kansas City made the Super Bowl and that’s how Houston beat Buffalo in last year’s postseason.
It remains to be seen if Allen can play near this level against teams that don’t feature the worst defense in NFL history, but the optimism surrounding the Bills is finally supported with evidence. There’s an argument to be made that the Bills pose the greatest threat to Kansas City in the AFC. I’m not ready to make it at this point, but I’m not far away.
2. Rushing just doesn’t matter (unless you’re Dalvin Cook)
The Bills ran the ball just three times in the first half against Seattle. The Buccaneers only ran the ball four times all game against New Orleans. Taysom Hill led New Orleans in rushing in that one, too. The Steelers did nothing on the ground, neither did Kansas City, Seattle or Atlanta.
You can call this week an outlier, but this is likely the future of football. Passing leads to points, points lead to wins, wins lead to rings.
Let’s look at everyone’s favorite running back of yesteryear: Derrick Henry. The Big Dog had 21 carries for 68 yards and almost 40% of his rushing total came on one carry. If you eliminate that 26-yard carry, he ran 20 times for 2.1 yards per attempt. How does that help an offense? Why wouldn’t you just want more targets for A.J. Brown, Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith? If the Titans committed to that gameplan against anyone except the Bears offense, they probably lose.
I’m not saying the running game is dead; Dalvin Cook ran wild for 206 yards and two touchdowns. However, a Kirk Cousins dropback provided .40 EPA/play while a Cook rush added .41 EPA/play. A meh performance from a quarterback is just as, often more, efficient and valuable than a great game from a running back. That’s the reality of football.
3. Tua Tagovailoa proves Miami made the correct decision
The Dolphins do not beat the Cardinals without Tagovailoa full stop.
In terms of the raw box score, Tagovailoa was incredible: 20-28 passing for 248 yards and two touchdowns plus 35 rushing yards and a few key first downs. The advanced numbers love his performance even more, as his 16.5 EPA on dropbacks outdueled Kyler Murray’s 14.6 (more on him in a bit).
Tagovailoa flashed the lightning quick release and pinpoint accuracy that made him one of college football’s all-time great talents. Just admire this absolute dime from the second quarter. Look familiar, Georgia fans?
When I wrote about the Dolphins’ decision to replace Ryan Fitzpatrick with Tagovailoa a couple weeks ago, I talked too much about the scenario in which Tagovailoa is not good. The correct opinion, which The Ringer’s Rodger Sherman focused on, was that Tagovailoa was an immediate upgrade over Fitzpatrick. The decision does help Miami decide if they need to use the Texans’ pick on a Zack Wilson or Trey Lance, but it was a win-now move first and foremost.
Miami sits at 5-3 in a four-way tie for the final two Wild Card berths in the AFC. If the season ended today, they’d be in the playoffs. Miami remains just a game and a half behind the Bills for the AFC East lead.
Miami and Buffalo face off in Week 17, potentially for the division title. That’s right: DOLPHINS @ BILLS FOR THE AFC EAST TITLE. BOOK YOUR THEORETICAL TICKETS NOW.
4. Kyler Murray brought the Big 12 to the NFLÂ
I’d say Murray’s ridiculous performance against the Dolphins got buried behind in the Tagovailoa hype train, but that simply wouldn’t be true. We all know Mighty Mouse was the best player on the field in that game.
Murray was sensational: 14.6 EPA on dropbacks and 9.3 EPA on rushes (that was more than Dalvin Cook). The Cardinals lost this game because Kliff Kingsbury decided to attempt a game-tying field goal on a fourth-and-one from the Dolphins 31-yard line instead of letting Kyler run an option. Who’s stopping this shit on a fourth-and-short?
Kingsbury is starting to open up the playbook and let Murray showcase his beautiful deep ball. But his game management decision-making continues to disappoint and cost Arizona wins. Kingsbury should just turn tweet notifications on for the Baldwin Bot and let that dictate his fourth-down play calls.
Murray is slowly inserting himself into the MVP race. If the Cardinals catch the Seahawks in the NFC West, Murray has a real chance to extend streak of sophomore MVP’s to three.
5. When the Saints go marching in
38-3. THIRTY EIGHT TO THREE. The largest loss of Tom Brady’s career.
I’m not going to make too much of this one though. Division games are weird. The Bucs came out with a terrible game plan on both sides of the ball and that’s why they lost, not because Brady is washed.
Brady doesn’t handle pressure well and the Bucs refuse to run a quick passing game. Defensively, they sat in a conservative zone defense against Drew Brees. Those are just monumentally stupid approaches to a game crucially important for playoff positioning. Bruce Arians needs to look in the mirror and accept responsibility for this one.
The Saints might just be a bad matchup for the Bucs, just like the 49ers were for the Packers last year. Of course, hoping not to face New Orleans in the playoffs isn’t a very good strategy.
For New Orleans, they finally proved they were the NFC powerhouse so many expected them to be. I’ve been on record since before the season that I felt something off with the Saints. However, the talent in New Orleans is undeniable. When they play like that, it’s easy to see why so many fell in love with their roster.
The Saints are back to the NFC’s top tier, which gets more confusing every week. New Orleans crushed Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay killed Green Bay. Green Bay beat New Orleans. What is this, the 2008 Big 12? And then there’s Seattle…
6. Pete Carroll, WYD?
Speaking of terrible gameplans, let’s circle back to what the hell the Seahawks tried to do in Buffalo. Carroll said after the game: “We didn’t think they would totally abandon the running game. We had a real nice plan for how they were gonna run it. We have to be able to adapt better.”
As Ben Baldwin pointed out, that thought process makes zero sense. Much like the Bucs chose to scheme their defense in a way that allowed Drew Brees to thrive, the Seahawks did the same against Allen.
It was mind-numblingly stupid. And NFL coaches do this all the time, even the good ones like Carroll. This was the exact type of stuff that creates doubt about Seattle’s Super Bowl chances. Do they look at the Packers and think of Aaron Jones before Aaron Rodgers? What about the (pre-injury) Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliot and Dak Prescott?
So what do we make of the NFC? New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Seattle appear to be a step above the rest, but they all have exploitable flaws. Could that pave the way for Arizona or Los Angeles to make a run?
The race for the NFC’s one-seed becomes the difference maker, as only one team earns a first-round by this year. If I had to pick the team who will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, I’ll probably take whoever gets that bye. That’s not the most confident answer, but at least we can rule out the NFC East.
7. The Chiefs are the best team in football
With so much chaos at the top of the league, there seems to be no clear-cut best team in the NFL. That’s what conventional wisdom would say, at least.
I don’t believe in conventional wisdom. I believe in Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes is on a 16-game pace of 4,777 passing yards and 48 total touchdowns. That’s a runaway MVP season for basically any quarterback ever and we’re not even impressed with it from Mahomes.
Charles McDonald of the New York Daily News wrote about how Mahomes in entering the “LeBron-zone”. He’s so insanely talented that we barely notice the four or five Hall of Fame worthy throws he makes every week. We try to put other teams at the top of our power rankings when the Chiefs get bored and lay an egg.
I will not make the same mistakes. I didn’t start following the NBA until 2012-13, so I missed LeBron’s ascendence. I have been around for all of Mahomes’ career and I refuse to take him for granted.
The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL for as long as Mahomes is starting. Stop pretending otherwise.
8. Top Five-ish Teams
- Kansas City Chiefs
- *enormous gap*
- New Orleans Saints
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Buffalo Bills
- Seattle Seahawks
- Green Bay Packers
9. MVP Tracker
- Patrick Mahomes
- Aaron Rodgers
- Russell Wilson
- Kyler Murray
- Josh Allen
- Tom Brady
[…] I wrote about in my Week 9 takeaways, Tagovailoa was exceptional last week. The Dolphins would not have won without […]