I’m going to use this week’s intro to selfishly and shamelessly plug my YouTube channel, where I plan to upload my podcasts in video form and create some new content in the near future. Check out my pod with Hunter Kempton about the PBA’s new rule change that will enable most college bowlers to cash in an unlimited number of PBA events while maintaining collegiate eligibility.
Onto Week 5! As always, we are using the Vegas Insider Consensus lines.
Last week
- Lauren: 1-4
- Scott: 3-2
- Nolan: 3-2
Season
- Lauren: 9-11
- Scott: 9-10-1
- Nolan: 8-12
Lauren’s Picks
Green Bay -3 at Cincinnati
New England -8 at Houston
Pittsburgh +1.5 vs. Denver
L.A. Chargers -2.5 vs. Cleveland
Buffalo +2.5 at Kansas City
Scott’s Picks
These are awful. 1-4 written all over it.
Green Bay -3 at Cincinnati
Since their debacle in Week 1, the Packers have looked like one of the betters teams in the NFL. I don’t really know what to make of the Bengals, but their narrow win over Jacksonville doesn’t elicit much confidence. It’s just hard to imagine Rodgers not taking care of business in this one.
New Orleans -2.5 at Washington
I haven’t had much success with the Saints this year. They are an enigma up to this point, which is likely just a foundational element of the Jameis Winston experience. Despite the Saints relative inconsistency, Washington just isn’t the same team we saw a year ago. The defense has taken a step back and Heinicke isn’t the guy. I’ll roll the dice one more time on the Saints.
Las Vegas -5.5 vs. Chicago
This sets up nicely for a bounce back for the Raiders, who are surely disappointed with their performance against the Chargers. The Bears will be without David Montgomery and that will likely make life a lot more difficult for Justin Fields, which it’s already difficult enough with Matt Nagy as his coach. This feels like a great spot for the Raiders.
L.A Chargers -2.5 vs. Cleveland
Despite the wealth of evidence to the contrary, I just cannot get accustomed to the idea of the Browns as AFC contenders. However, I love this Chargers team, even though their home games are more or less away games. The Browns D is excellent, but their offense has struggled to move the ball consistently. It won’t be easy for them to keep up with Herbert and the high-powered Chargers.
Buffalo +2.5 at Kansas City
Sorry, Nolan. I’m on the Bills bandwagon this week. The Chiefs defense is a comedy of errors. The Bills offense has been scorching hot. I think the Bills will get enough stops and score at will to not only cover, but win this game straight up.
Nolan’s Picks
Green Bay -3 at Cincinnati
To paraphrase Ben Solak on The Ringer Gambling Show: If you told me I could get the Packers, without any notable injuries, by a field goal before the season, I’d drive to Vegas to bet on it.
Carolina -3 vs. Philadelphia
Philadelphia looked frisky against Kansas City a week ago, but their coach is a coward and their defense is a travesty. I don’t know how much better than the Eagles that the Panthers are, but they are better.
Tampa Bay -10 vs. Miami
There will be no emotional clouds hanging over the Bucs in this one. Their offense should look much better without any rain. They’re also playing an incompetent Dolphins offense.
Did you see what I did there/their/they’re?
Chicago +5.5 at Las Vegas
The Bears let Bill Lazor call plays last week and suddenly Justin Fields looked like an NFL quarterback. I’m not picking against the Raiders because they let me down against the Chargers last week. I am not, not picking against them because of the racist email Jon Gruden sent NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith.
Indianapolis +7 at Baltimore
Gross. Repulsive. Nauseating. This pick is all of those things.
Five Things To Watch
Do you think football teams need to establish the run in order to set up play action? Do you think football teams should “take the points” and kick a field goal on fourth down? Do you think football teams should kick the PAT when down by nine points?
If you believe any of these things: DO NOT TURN ON BROWNS-CHARGERS. THIS IS OUR BATTLE OF THE NERDS AND YOU CAN’T HAVE ANY OF IT.
2. Trey Lance’s First Career Start
I made a small bet on Lance to make his first start prior to the 49ers bye week and if Jimmy Garoppolo hadn’t injured his calf, that would’ve had no chance to cash. But my excitement for this game far exceeds a stupid bet (though it’s not mutually exclusive.)
The 21-year-old quarterback has seen very little action on the gridiron in the past two years. Of the 2021 quarterback class, Lance arguably has the most “tools”, which is code for the quarterback with plenty of raw athleticism and little understanding of how to use it.
Perhaps a Kyle Shanahan game plan designed around those skills could lead to an upset victory against Kyler Murray and the undefeated Arizona Cardinals. Or perhaps it leads to chaos equivalent to that of an unrehearsed middle school dance recital. Either way, I’m intrigued.
3. Hurts, Da’Nold
Did the little voice in your head pronounce that heading like “hurts, don’t it”? No? Well, can you just pretend?
Anyways, the 3-1 Panthers lost to the first truly good team they faced, which per the rules of football discourse calls their record’s legitimacy into question. But sometimes you don’t have to be a good team to make the playoffs. You just need to take advantage of an easy schedule. The Panthers have the easy schedule — can they take advantage?
I just love Jalen Hurts. I could find a way to put him on this list every week. Hurts has somehow only made eight career NFL starts — it feels like 30 — and he’s accumulated the third-most total yards in NFL history.
4. Urban Meyer’s Triumphant Return
Look, we’ve all seen the jokes. I don’t want to rehash all the issues throughout Meyer’s career, nor does he deserve the attention.
All I want to see is how hard the Jaguars play on Sunday — now, these are professionals; they will play hard to a respectable degree — but there is a non-zero chance the team unites in protest and hangs Meyer on the uprights by his underpants like he’s a character in the Simpsons.
5. AFC Championship Rematch
After the Bills jumped out to a 9-0 lead — and I punched a hole in my door because CBS’ broken streaming service wouldn’t let me watch — the Chiefs demolished the Bills the rest of the way. The Bills subsequently dedicated their entire offseason towards reconfiguring their defense to prevent that from happening again.
It’s worked so far, though Buffalo has played an atrocious schedule of opposing offenses. Even if the Bills had played a more imposing schedule, there is no comparable preparation for Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs offense.
The Chiefs turn every game into an episode of Whose Line Is It Anyway? — where everything is made up and the points don’t matter. The only thing that matters is who has the ball last.