Patrick Mahomes II was name the 2018 NFL’s Most Valuable Player last weekend, and rightfully so. He led the league with a whopping 50 touchdown passes (tied for second all time). He became the second quarterback ever to accumulate 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in the same season. Mahomes led his Kansas City Chiefs to a 12-4 record, the best in the AFC. Now the question that everyone’s wondering: Can Mahomes do it again?
The odds say Mahomes is due for statistical regression. After a season’s worth of film, surely defenses will figure out how to stop him. There’s one problem with this theory: you can’t. How do you devise a game plan to stop this?
Or this?
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Under head coach Andy Reid, perhaps the NFL’s best playcaller, Mahomes is poised to dominate the league. His front office has put a spectacular receiving core around Mahomes in Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and co. They have proven capable of replacing players and they decline with age or become too expensive, as well.
Over the next several seasons, I expect a Mahomes have a stretch similar to that of Drew Brees from 2008-2016. During those nine seasons, Brees averaged 4,991 yards and nearly 37 touchdowns per season. Mahomes is more than capable of replicating that.
As far as the 50 touchdown mark, Mahomes is only the third player to do so. Peyton Manning threw for 55 touchdowns in his age-37 season, while Tom Brady completed 5o in his age-30 season. Mahomes joined the 50 TD club at only age 23, in his first season as a starter! Believe it or not, he’s only going to get better.
The modern NFL is built for quarterbacks to succeed. Teams are throwing more often and more efficiently than ever before. This wasn’t a flash-in-the-pan, flukey, offensive explosion from Mahomes. This was the coming out party by a future all-time great.
Many questioned the Chiefs judgement to move on from Alex Smith after a career year in 2017, especially in favor of an unproven, second year gunslinger. In reality, maybe we should have questioned the Chiefs for not starting Mahomes sooner. Mahomes proved all the doubters wrong, and even made his strongest supporters look foolish. I’ve learned my lesson; I’m not going to be among those who ever doubt Mahomes again.
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