Last year, I picked Patrick Mahomes to win the MVP and the Bears to win the NFC North so I’m kind of an expert. Well, not exactly — but I did draft Mahomes and the Bears’ defense in my fantasy league. That’s close enough.
I’ve got award winners, division winners, a Super Bowl winner — lots of winners. Let’s get to it.
Award Winners
Most Valuable Player: Baker Mayfield
Patrick Mahomes arose from obscurity to win the league Most Valuable Player award last year. That’s happened in three of the last four years now (Cam Newton in 2015 and Matt Ryan in 2016); a stark change as one of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning won seven of eight MVP awards from 2007-2014. Rule changes and the leaguewide passing boom has allowed for more quarterbacks to put up the record breaking statistics that used to only be possible for surefire Hall of Famers like Brady, Rodgers and Manning. Essentially, the MVP race is more wide open than ever.
First things first, a quarterback is winning the MVP (unless a running back does the impossible, which I wrote about in February). I have a few names in mind: Mahomes, Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. The case for Mahomes, Wentz, Goff and Rodgers is fairly obvious: win 12+ games with 4,500 yards and 35+ touchdowns. Mahomes has to fight against statistical regression; he could improve this year, but still lose votes due to a small decrease in yards or touchdowns. Wentz needs to repeat his 2017 season, while Rodgers simply has to turn back the clock. After his debacle in the Super Bowl, all eyes are on Goff. Luckily, he’s got the coach and weapons to make everyone forget.
My dark horse is Cam Newton, but who knows if he can stay healthy for an entire season anymore. Also, I’d like to point out that Tom Brady is always a contender for the MVP, especially considering the defending champs look improved on paper. I just simply don’t think he puts up the stats — New England wants to run the ball — to seriously contend for an MVP.
After hours of mental deliberation, I’ve finally talked myself into it. Baker Mayfield is going to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award.
Mayfield’s case is as captivating and enticing as anything I can remember. As of yesterday, he has the fourth best odds to win the award. Fourth! He’s not only made the Cleveland Browns relevant, but downright good; voters are going to make excuses to vote for him. All Mayfield needs to do is win the division and have some impressive showings in prime time. With two Monday night games in the first five weeks, the opportunity is ripe for Mayfield. I’ve got the Browns’ Week 16 showdown against Baltimore circled as a potential flex to Sunday Night. If Mayfield leads the Browns to a division title with the entire country watching, only Colin Cowherd won’t vote for him.
Offensive Player of the Year: Patrick Mahomes
Whoever wins the MVP could (and likely will) take home Offensive Player of the Year as well. While Mayfield takes the MVP award, I think Mahomes puts up better stats and repeats as Offensive Player of the Year.
I’m going to use this slot to highlight some non-quarterbacks who I think will have incredible seasons. Christian McCaffery and Ezekiel Elliot have the combination of volume and offensive line help to make a strong case; Saquon Barkley only has the volume, but that might be all he needs.
A wide receiver has not won the Offensive Player of the Year award since Jerry Rice in 1993. Considering the league-wide passing boom, it’s surprising no receiver has made a legitimate run at Calvin Johnson’s single season receiving yards record set in 2012. Julio Jones and Antonio Brown came close way back in 2015, but no one has scratched the surface since. As the beneficiary of Mayfield’s MVP breakout, Odell Beckham Jr. comes damn close and possibly breaks Megatron’s record of 1,964 receiving yards. The Browns’ trade for Beckham will only look better with time.
Defensive Player of the Year: Von Miller
After back-to-back DPOY trophies, voter fatigue is coming for Donald. Miller is going to feast in Vic Fangio’s scheme and Denver’s defense will resemble the 2015 Super Bowl champions’.
Earl Thomas has drawn “best player in football” praise when healthy. Baltimore has rebuilt their defense around their secondary, as opposed to their traditional fearsome pass rush, and Thomas will be the reason the Ravens’ defense is among the league’s best.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Kyler Murray
Offensively, this year’s rookie class is quietly uninspiring. Murray is the only quarterback starting from Day 1 and all the wide receivers are either hurt, buried on depth charts or, frankly, suck.
There a couple intriguing running backs, though none match the hype given to Barkley or even Leonard Fournette. There are quite a few Josh Jacobs believers out there, notably Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller and ESPN’s Matthew Berry. I am not one, but I am all in on someone else….
Bears rookie David Montgomery is the only collegiate player to break more than 100 tackles in a college season in the PFF era… and he did it twice. Montgomery could not have landed in a better situation than Chicago with head coach Matt Nagy. You’re looking at 2017 Kareem Hunt 2.0.
Truth be told, I have both on my fantasy team, so I have a vested interest in both players’ success. After Barkley ousted Mayfield last year, it’s clear voters are not #RunningBacksDontMatter truthers. But I am, so I’m going with Murray.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Brian Burns
Here’s my first truly bold prediction. Burns lit up the preseason for Carolina, posting the highest PFF grade of any defensive rookie. The Panthers rookie will approach double digit sacks and steals the award from the likes of Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, and Devin Bush.
Coach of the Year: Freddie Kitchens
You’re telling me the guy who leads the Browns to the playoffs isn’t going to win Coach of the Year?
Comeback Player of the Year: Earl Thomas
This award is largely narrative-driven and the definition of a “comeback” is used loosely. Phillip Rivers won the award in 2013 after playing 16 games in 2012; Michael Vick won in 2010 after returning to the NFL from a two year prison sentence. This year, Le’Veon Bell is a top candidate despite voluntarily sitting out last season. Suffice to say, this award can be difficult to predict.
Thomas is a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year and he seems well liked across the league. Wentz returning from consecutive injury-shortened seasons has a strong shot at the MVP award, as well. Goff and the Rams felt Cooper Kupp’s absence after he tore his ACL in Week 10 last year. It feels like the narrative is already building around Thomas, so let’s keep that train rolling.
AFC Playoff Teams
AFC East: New England Patriots
The Jets and Bills are starting to get a little frisky, but the Pats are loaded, especially on defense. Josh Gordon’s return and some potential fresh contributors (Jacobi Myers, Demaryius Thomas, N’Keal Harry) gave Brady’s receiving core the jolt it needed.
AFC North: Cleveland Browns
As you’ll see in a second with my Wild Card predictions, I expect the AFC North to be extremely competitive. Mayfield and Lamar Jackson’s fresh, yet contrasting styles of play mixed with the old school Ben Roethlisberger make for the league’s most captivating division. I would not be surprised with any of Cleveland, Pittsburgh or Baltimore taking the division crown.
AFC South: Houston Texans
Good grief. The AFC South has restored its reputation as the NFL’s most incompetent, woefully mismanaged collection of franchises. The Colts — whose new front office briefly established themselves among the NFL’s elite — lost the face of the franchise due to the past ineptitude of the Ryan Grigson regime. The Texans inexplicably decided to model their franchise after the aforementioned Grigson-era Colts. The Titans allegedly believe in Marcus Mariota, but also brought in Ryan Tannehill, creating perhaps the most “eh” quarterback duo of all time. Then, there’s the Jaguars, who I simultaneously believe could pick first overall or earn a first round bye.
I don’t know who’s winning this division and frankly it doesn’t matter. Whoever wins will undoubtedly be chewed up and spit out in the Wild Card round. When in doubt, pick the best quarterback.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs and Chargers tied for the division lead at 12-4 last year. The Chiefs added speed and playmaking to their offense in Mecole Hardman, Darwin Thompson and most recently LeSean McCoy. The Chargers have lost their starting left tackle, Russell Okung, for at least six weeks to blood clots; their All-Pro safety, Derwin James, to a foot fracture; their starting running back, Melvin Gordon, to a contract dispute. The Chargers don’t need any help screwing shit up — they can do that all on their own. There’s no conceivable way the Chiefs lose this division without Mahomes getting injured.
Wildcard 1: Pittsburgh Steelers
Wildcard 2: Baltimore Ravens
I believe that three of the AFC’s best five teams reside in the AFC North. After Antonio Brown’s tumultuous end in black and yellow, the Steelers will rally together. I’m a believer in the Ravens defense and I cannot wait to see that their plan is offensively.
Outside of a “nobody believes in us” Colts run, I have a really hard time seeing another team cracking the AFC’s postseason party. If the Broncos had gone another way at quarterback this off-season (even just keeping Case Keenum), I would have strongly considered them a playoff threat.
NFC Playoff Teams
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
Wentz is ready to go and the Eagles have the best roster in the NFL once again. The Cowboys are a worthy adversary, but range from objectively worse to slightly worse at nearly every position compared to the Eagles. The Redskins are a flaming pile of poop and Eli Manning’s rotting corpse is starting for the Giants. This is my non-Patriots division winner lock.
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
Here’s how I look at the NFC North. The Lions and Matt Patricia are an abomination, while the other three teams (Packers, Bears and Vikings) are all extremely similar. That means the division champion will most likely be the team with the best in-division record, as Chicago did last year. Rodgers isn’t “most talented quarterback of all time” good anymore, but he’s going to be damn close this year. The Packers start the season with games against the Bears and Vikings and get the Vikings again in Week 16 on Monday Night Football. The MNF game is a guaranteed win for Green Bay (because, you know, Kirk Cousins). Essentially, all Rodgers needs to do is take care of business at home and the NFC North crown returns to Wisconsin.
This was a very roundabout way of saying Aaron Rodgers is better than Cousins and Mitchell Trubisky. I should’ve led with that.
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
The Saints have felt more than their share of postseason heartbreak in recent years. In the 2017-18 playoffs, the Minneapolis Miracle happened. Last year, a mysterious non-pass interference call handed the Rams an extra opportunity. But here’s the thing: despite what Saints fans will tell you, those losses were not screw jobs. The NFL did not place a bounty on the Saints. (Wouldn’t that be ironic?). The Saints and Drew Brees got the ball first in overtime and threw an interception. The Rockets — I mean Saints — choked. (Damn, why did I say that? Oh, that’s right; the Rockets wrote a dissertation on how the referees screwed them and then lost to a Kevin Durant-less Warriors team. Sound familiar?)
The Saints are dying for someone to come and steal this division. Atlanta is healthy on defense, cleaned house on the coaching staff and prioritized their draft on reinvigorating the offensive line. None of those are sexy moves, but that’s how you win in the NFL. Additionally, if Newton stays healthy, the Panthers window suddenly blows wide open.
Look, New Orleans fans. You just got Zion Williamson handed on a silver platter. Let the poor Georgia sports fans have this one.
NFC West: Los Angeles Rams
I’ve been beating the Rams’ regression drum all off-season… and I chickened out at the last minute. I’ve never been a Goff believer, but his new, record-setting extension gave me pause. If Sean McVay believes in Goff, that must mean something — there’s no doubt Goff can make any throw on the field. Goff’s limitations may cost the Rams a future playoff game, but they won’t drastically affect the regular season.
The 49ers are my NFC complement to the Chargers, except they’ll be even worse. There is serious smoke that the 49ers are worried about Jimmy G, and, well, the 49ers do play in California. Let’s just say, Justin Herbert might not have to move too far from Oregon next year.
Wild Card 1: Seattle Seahawks
Wild Card 2: Dallas Cowboys
Just because I’m back in on Los Angeles doesn’t mean I’m out on Seattle. My only hesitation is the archaic offensive scheme, which is the only roadblock to a Russell Wilson MVP season. Did I mention they stole Jadeveon Clowney from Houston?
I hate to say it, but the Cowboys are legitimately good. The Cowboys will face stiff competition from the Bears, Saints, Panthers and Vikings (in that order) for the final NFC playoff spot, but will sneak in because of one man… the immortal KELLEN MOORE.
Bonus!
The Patrick Mahomes Breakout Star: Baker Mayfield
What more can I say? Mayfield wants to stake his flag in Ohio lore (again) and rewrite the history of non-LeBron Cleveland sports. Baker will have his 2007 LeBron-Pistons moment at some point.
The Phillip Lindsay Off-the-Streets Contributor: WR KeeSean Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Someone has to catch passes outside of LA in the NFC West. I felt like Murray and Johnson displayed some real chemistry in the preseason. As the third of three wide receivers drafted by the Cardinals this year, he’s definitely got the makings of an out-of-nowhere contributor.
The Nick Chubb Hidden Star: RB Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens
Hill is simply better than Mark Ingram at this point; it’s a matter of when, not if, he takes the starting job. Until then, he will be stashed on my fantasy team’s bench.
Best Player Traded: Melvin Gordon
I think the Chargers are going to cut ties with Gordon before he even considers ending his holdout. There’s been reports of the Eagles sniffing around a potential Gordon-for-Jordan Howard swap. Adding a player like Melvin Gordon in Week 4 just sounds like something Howie Roseman would do.
Super Bowl
AFC Championship: Kansas City over New England
I really think Mahomes figured something out in the second half of last year’s AFC title game. The Chiefs racked up 31 points in the final 30 minutes of regulation, including 24 in the fourth quarter alone. It’s going to be a shootout, but Brady will have to pass the torch over to the young king.
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over Green Bay
In a battle between Doug Pederson and Matt LaFleur, I’m rolling with Pederson everytime.
Super Bowl: Kansas City over Philadelphia
The Andy Reid revenge game! Everything about Reid’s history says he’s going to blow this game — but his present and future will carry him to the promise land. Wentz drops “The Philly Special II” and Mahomes leads the Chiefs to the Super Bowl title, earning an earth-shattering $200 million extension in the process.
Chiefs-Eagles seems to be the trendy Super Bowl match-up, but I’m not going to shy away just because it’s the popular pick. The Eagles are the best team and the Chiefs have the NFL’s Stephen Curry in Mahomes.
Guys, football is back. I don’t think I’ve ever been this genuinely excited for the season. Imagine how I’ll feel when the Bills are actually good?!
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