Apr 04 2019
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Devin Booker has quietly become one of the more polarizing players in the league. He can rack up points faster and more efficiently than almost any player in the league, yet his Suns have an annual tradition of finishing at or near the bottom of the league standings. So, what exactly is he – a product of a horrific team, enabling him to put up empty stats or a rising superstar held back by young, inexperienced teammates?

Devin Booker #1 of the Kentucky Wildcats is congratulated by Karl-Anthony Towns #12 (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

Devin Booker was a member of the fabled 2014-15 Kentucky Wildcats that set college basketball on fire with a 38-0 record before falling in the Final Four to Wisconsin. He was Kentucky’s third leading scorer at 10.0 points per game, which is notable because Booker never started at game at Kentucky; he only averaged 21.5 minutes a game as a bench player.

Booker flashed enough scoring potential to become a lottery selection after just one collegiate season. The Suns drafted Booker 13th overall in the 2015 NBA draft. He quickly proved the Suns to have made a worthwhile investment (which, as you’ll see, does not happen often). He finished his rookie season with averages of 13.8 points per game and 2.8 assists per game (fourth and seventh, respectively, among rookies).

By the conclusion of his sophomore season, Booker established himself as a budding force in the league. He increased his scoring output to 22.1 ppg, before being able to legally place a bet in Vegas. The list of players who averaged more than 22 ppg before the age of 21 is impressive: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Shaquille O’Neal, Kyrie Irving and now Booker. He was on the fast track to becoming a superstar.

Now in his fourth season, Booker’s number indicate he is still on that trajectory. His per game scoring and assists marks, field goal percentage and PER have risen each season of his young career. This season, the 22 year old averaged 26.6 points, 6.8 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game. Only three players in the 3-point era (since 1979-80) have averaged 25 points and 6.5 assists per game before the age of 23: LeBron James (2x), 2011 Derrick Rose and 2019 Devin Booker. (Side note: if you are one of those who wants to call the 6.5 assist threshold a “LeBron stat”, well, you’d be right. Bumping the filter down to 6 assists only adds another LeBron season.)

Let me clarify: Devin Booker is not the next LeBron. Although, his numbers do resemble another NBA player during their fourth season: reigning league MVP,James Harden.

StatsPPGAPGRPGFG%3PT%FT%
James Harden, Year 425.95.84.943.836.885.1
Devin Booker, Year 426.96.94.246.632.786.5

Based on those stats, supporters of Booker could argue he’s primed for a Harden-like breakout. However, when you look beyond the general statistics and dive into the advanced metrics, Harden distances himself from Booker.

Stats Usage %Win SharesPERBox +/-VORPTeam Wins
James Harden, Year 4 29.012.823.05.55.743 (78 GS)
Devin Booker, Year 4 32.93.620.31.01.715 (63 GS)

Harden produced similar general statistics on a (albeit, slightly) lower usage percentage. More importantly, he contributed significantly more to winning basketball. In fairness to Booker, Harden does have the benefit of a system that is built around his strengths and management that finds players who fill the roles perfectly.

Meanwhile, Booker has not had the benefits the Rockets have provided Harden. In Phoenix, he’s had to deal with a deplorable owner, dysfunctional front office, poor supporting cast and four different head coaches. The best player Booker has ever played with in Phoenix is either DeAndre Ayton (a rookie) or Eric Bledsoe (who had his own issues).

Here are the Suns’ lottery selections since selecting Booker in 2015: Dragan Bender (bust), Georgios Papagiannis (out of the league), Josh Jackson (underperforming), and Ayton (actually promising). Phoenix hasn’t been a free agent destination in quite some time. According to NBA.com, the Suns only notable free agent signings in the Booker-era are Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa – not exactly a “Big Three” crew.

Max Carlin analyzed the supporting cast production of players similar to Booker (under age 23, 20+ ppg). He totaled their Player Impact Plus-Minus (PIPM) to calculate which of these young players had the least amount of help from teammates. Unsurprisingly, Booker’s supporting casts on the 2017-18 and 2018-19 Suns ranked as two of the four worst supporting casts in the PIPM era (since 2000-01). Booker hasn’t just been stuck with bad teammates, but historically bad ones.

Believe it or not, it’s hard to win games when you deploy a roster devoid of talent like Phoenix has of late. This isn’t exactly a new trend in Phoenix; the Suns have not made the playoffs since the 2009-10 season, which is the second longest playoff drought in the NBA. Recently, things have gotten even worse. After finishing 14th in the Western Conference standings in 2015 (Booker’s rookie season), the Suns have finished last in each of the last three seasons (including this season). They’ve never won more than 24 games in any season since drafting Booker.

Last week, in a game against the Utah Jazz, Booker tallied 59 points on an efficient 19-34 from the field (5-8 from 3-point range; 16-17 from the free throw line). He joined the short list of players who have tallied multiple 50-point games before turning 23 with Rick Barry, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. Surely you remember the first time; Booker scored a whopping 70 points in a game two years ago – when he was only twenty years old.

Two days after the Utah performance, Booker racked up 30 points in the first half and told a fan “I’m going for 50”. He did exactly that, becoming the youngest player in NBA history with consecutive 50-point games. Three days later, Booker looked primed for third-consecutive 50-point game after dropping 24 points in the first quarter alone. (The only other players to accomplish that feat are Wilt Chamberlain (10x), Kobe Bryant, Elgin Baylor and Michael Jordan.) Booker ultimately came up just short, finishing with 48 points and 11 assists.

Actually, coming up short was a common theme among all three games. The Suns lost all three contests. According to ESPN Stats and Info, his 157 points are the most over a 3-game losing streak in over 55 years (Wilt Chamberlain in 1962-63). He’s also the first player to score 50 points in a game in which his team lost by 30 points or more (the Suns lost to the Jazz by 33).

Before this stretch, Booker had become a forgotten talent in the league for a variety of reasons. James Harden’s historic season has desensitized basketball fans to 50-point games, similar to how Russell Westbrook has single-handedly devalued the triple double. It’s reached a point where the most enthusiastic fans don’t even blink at either achievement. Eleven other players have reached the 50-point mark this season, an NBA record. Most importantly, the Suns abysmal season eliminated them from playoff contention – and the forefront of our minds – long ago.

Booker’s recent stretch of play has turned the question of “What type of player is Devin Booker?” into a hot-button issue. Like in most cases, sports media was forced to take a side. Some stood up Booker; many did not.

At first, I didn’t really understand the sudden harsh criticism. Booker is still only 22 and has already proven to be an elite scorer. His team sucks and had zero chance of contending for the playoffs this year. So, why did Booker become a target now?

The answer: expectations. Booker signed a 5 year/$158 million max extension with Phoenix last summer. He is no longer a young player with potential, free to carelessly accumulate up points on a tanking team – he’s a max player, complete with the pressure and playoff expectations that come with it. But will he ever live up to those expectations?

Personally, I still believe Booker can become a highly accomplished NBA player. With his scoring prowess, he’s a lock to make a few All-Star teams. If the Suns can improve enough to at least occasionally sneak into the playoffs, I can see him earning a few All-NBA selections.

As far as being the best player on a title contender, I don’t see it. There’s a certain “it” factor when it comes to those type of players; often defined as the innate ability to make your teammates better, regardless of the circumstances. This is evident in all of the truly elite NBA players: LeBron, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, to name a few. Booker is undoubtedly not on that tier – if he was, his Suns would be winning 35 games a year, not 20.

If he’s not a true franchise player, can be be a second option, or even a 1b? It’s always a challenge to project the future of any 22 year old athlete. It’s nearly impossible when the player has been in a situation like Booker. His success at Kentucky alongside Karl-Anthony Towns leads me to believe that Booker is capable of taking a backseat role, or at least the passenger seat.

Modern sports media forces you to take a side. I’ll do the cliche and place my bet somewhere in the middle. I believe Booker will capable of playing the second option/1b role for a title contender, provided he is afforded the opportunity to do so. The latter part of that sentence is why I’d worry about Booker. After signing long-term in Phoenix, and knowing their inept history, I have a hard time trusting that franchise to surround Booker with that opportunity.

Not everyone is thrilled about how player movement has revolutionized the NBA, but I’d love to see Booker on another team – one that can lighten his offensive workload, allowing him to focus a little more on the defensive side of the ball. Maybe the Suns core of Ayton, Jackson, Mikal Bridges develops into that team, but I have my doubts. In the near future, I expect Booker to continue showcasing his scoring expertise until someone steps up alongside him.

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Tagsdevin booker phoenix suns

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