The Josh Allen Paradox

I love the idea of Josh Allen.

He wins every interview. In a November sit-down with Bills legend Jim Kelly, the two were discussing the Bills Mafia. When the Mafia’s legendary practice of jumping onto folding tables inevitably came up, Allen directs his eyes to the camera and says jokingly, “We don’t condone that”.

He takes museum-worthy selfies with fans. No, seriously. His selfie with some of the most loyal of Bills fans at the airport gate is literally displayed in the Albright-Knox Art Gallery in Buffalo.

Perhaps most of all: Allen is a nobody from nowhere. He grew up on a cotton and cantaloupe farm in Firebaugh, California. The recruiting process ignored him completely; he received no scholarship offers because, as Allen says, “no one is looking for football players in Firebaugh”. Allen resonates with a city like Buffalo, where everybody is forgotten in a place America tends to ignore.

I love everything about Allen, until he starts playing football. When he takes the field, reality sets in: Josh Allen is not a franchise quarterback.

Everyone who watched the Bills’ Wild Card game against the Houston Texans was “rewarded” with the full Josh Allen Experience^TM. 

There were highs (a 40-yard rush, a 15-yard reception touchdown, an absolute dime to Duke Williams to end the first half, which was dropped). There were lows (multiple dropped pick-sixes, an intentional grounding penalty that took the Bills out of field goal range). And there were plays that only Josh Allen could make (a 19-yard sack on fourth-and-27 and a lateral with 1:04 left in regulation).

With Allen, literally anything is possible on any given play.

I want to revisit some of those highs. *In my best Bill Simmons voice* Are we sure those plays are any good from a quarterback? Everyone made a huge deal about Allen’s 15+ passing/rushing/receiving yards performance on Saturday, but then Taysom Hill did the same thing on Sunday in a fraction of the snaps.

That begs the question: aside from usage, what is the difference between Allen and Hill? The trick plays Buffalo uses to take advantage of Allen’s strengths are very similar to those New Orleans designs for Hill. Pretty much everyone understands Hill’s efficiency would suffer under a starter’s workload of snaps and throws, but I’d counter with this: he can’t do any worse than Allen, who has a career high of 266 passing yards.

Once Buffalo ran out of trick plays and Allen had to orchestrate a normal offense, he crumbled. After Allen’s reception touchdown on the opening drive, the Bills never scored another touchdown. They settled for four field goals and lost in overtime.

In the fourth quarter and overtime, Allen’s play can only be described through a pair of hilarious tweets.

Josh Allen plays like he makes decisions via Twitter poll

— Pablo S. Torre (@PabloTorre) January 5, 2020

Josh Allen plays like if Cam Newton were controlled by Brett Favre in a video game.

— Robin Lundberg (@robinlundberg) January 5, 2020

That’s not exactly how you want your “franchise” quarterback to be characterized, especially when considering how the quarterback on the opposing sideline played down the stretch.

---

To fully understand my feelings toward Allen, I need to take a step back. There is more to it than “Josh Allen sucks” (which, admittedly, was the working title of this piece before editing). The context of how Buffalo landed on Allen as the “franchise” quarterback matters.

The Bills traded the 10th pick in the 2017 draft to Kansas City, who took Patrick Mahomes. Two picks later, the Texans drafted Deshaun Watson. 

Then, one year after passing on a franchse quarterback, the Bills changed course. They traded up multiple times in the 2018 draft, eventually landing at number seven overall, where they selected Allen. 25 picks later, the Ravens trade up to draft Lamar Jackson.

I hold Allen to a very high standard, arguably too high. But the context I just outlined explains why. In passing on Mahomes, Watson and Jackson in favor of Allen, the Bills organization must have believed Allen the best prospect of the group. At the very least, they poorly evaluated their quarterback situation in 2017 and valued Allen ahead of Jackson.

You can say drafting quarterbacks is a crap-shoot. It is. (After all, I was clambering for  Rosen in 2018, not Jackson.) Who could have known Mahomes and Jackson would blossom into MVP’s in their second seasons? That is all fine and true; I can’t necessarily argue any of it. (Though, I’d point out Mahomes had much of the allure of Allen as a prospect without much of the negatives.)

However, how can you tell me Allen was in any way a better prospect than Deshaun Waston? Watson had the resume (two-time Heisman finalist, national champion), the leadership, a glowing recommendation (warning?) from his head coach. Watson had everything you could have asked for in a prospect and did it on the biggest stage, and the Bills drafted a guy who completed 56% of his passes at Wyoming.

Robert Mays of the Ringer wrote a brilliant feature about Watson last season. During his pre-draft meeting with Houston, Watson sat down at a lunch table by himself. Within minutes, over twenty Texans eagerly assembled around him. As a high school prospect, then-Clemson offensive coordinator said while recruiting Watson “We’re going to win a national championship if we sign this kid”. That is the power of Watson’s presence.

I’m getting sidetracked. The point is: there is no legitimate reason to have passed on Watson in the 2017 draft. In fact, the Bills reportedly met with Watson. Instead of watching Watson lead Buffalo to their first playoff win in 25 years (longer than I’ve been alive), we had to watch him rip our hearts out from the opposite sideline. With every evaded sack and improbable third down conversion, we were reminded of what could have been.

Revisionist history does not help anyone, and it certainly doesn’t make watching Watson, Mahomes and Jackson all compete in the divisional round any easier.

We cannot change the past. We can only build for the future. But what does a future with Josh Allen as the “franchise” quarterback look like?

I ask myself this question literally every day. I argued at length with my dad more times than I can count. But even I must admit, Allen has outperformed my wildest expectations this season. The 2019 season has arguably been Buffalo’s best season in my lifetime. Now, allow me to explain why Allen’s “success” this season might be the worst possible scenario for the future of the Bills.

I strongly believe the Bills are on the fast track to becoming the third installment of the 2018 Jaguars and 2019 Bears. Both teams came varyingly close to making the Super Bowl in the previous season. Each team was led by an elite defense and sunk by a boat anchor at quarterback (Blake Bortles for the Jaguars and Mitch Trubisky for the Bears). The next season, when the defense inevitably regressed (even slightly) and the young quarterback failed to progress, both teams cratered.

The Jaguars and Bears were well aware that they had, at best, below average quarterbacks. Yet, both franchises went all-in on “their guy” anyway. The Jaguars handed Bortles an extension and previously made several splash signings in free agency; the Bears traded multiple draft picks for Khalil Mack and immediately handed him a massive extension. Both franchies now face a bleak future with no quarterback and no avenue to improve the rest of the roster. 

The Bills will have to make the same decision this offseason. They must decide whether to go all-in on Allen during his rookie contract or save the assets for another quarterback. My fear is that the Bills, encouraged by Allen’s meager progression, the occasional “wow” play, and his leadership, will invest heavily around Allen.

Buffalo will have somewhere in the range of $83 to $90 million in cap space this offseason, as well as all of their draft picks. Though the Bills have not valued expensive, star players in Brandon Beane-Sean McDermott era, they may have been saving their assets for this moment.

There is a world in which the Bills splurge on someone like Amari Cooper or Yannick Ngakoue in free agency. In fact, Beane has already expressed his potential interest in adding a top tier pass rusher. The Bills could also trade draft picks for a disgruntled or underutilized player, like Odell Beckham Jr. or O.J. Howard. All things considered, it is nearly guaranteed that the Bills enter the 2020 season with a better roster on offense and defense.

At the end of the day, the only thing that turns Buffalo into a Super Bowl contender is the quarterback. If Allen does not develop into a top ten quarterback, nothing else matters. Tying the future of the franchise to a quarterback who, in my eyes, is very clearly not “the guy” would be a catastrophic disaster. That is why each and every one of those hypothetical splash moves would be a mistake and why Allen’s modest improvement and the Bills’ success this year terrifies me.

The sunk cost fallacy is the idea that people continue supporting a failed investment in order to justify it. The most common example is sitting through a terrible movie at the theater because you want to get your money’s worth. In reality, the money has already been spent — you are only wasting additional time by sitting through the terrible movie.

On that note, I believe the sooner that the Bills move on from Josh Allen, the better. If this were Madden, I would trade Allen for some draft picks and a proven player, but would undoubtedly cause irreversible damage in the locker room in the real world. Additionally, based on the Bills 22nd overall draft pick, there is no avenue to draft a replacement. The Bills will not sign Cam Newton or Andy Dalton, even if they actually become available. (Hey, stop laughing. Ryan Tannehill is starting in the AFC Championship.)

Therefore, Allen is essentially locked in as the 2020 starting quarterback. That might not be the worst thing in the world. I am almost certain the Bills are going to regress in a major way next season. However, I will be mentally prepared for such regression, unlike the “Trubiskaholics” who had Super Bowl aspirations for the Bears in 2019.

On the other hand, there is a chance Allen does the opposite and actually takes a step or two forward. Pro Football Focus’ Kevin Cole analyzed the Bills’ offensive improvement from 2018 to 2019, Allen’s rookie and sophomore seasons. He notes that in 2018 the Bills built an offense reliant on explosive, chunk passes, similar to that of the 2015 Panthers. That type of offense fits Allen’s perceived strengths (prototypical size, strong arm). 

The problem was, as Cole discovered, those are not Allen’s actual strengths. Allen ranked as the second worst quarterback in terms of expected points added (EPA) per pass, ahead of only Josh Rosen (RIP Chosen Rosen) in 2018. On deep balls (20+ yards downfield), Allen completed 16 of 65 pass attempts for five touchdowns and eight interceptions. You don’t need to be a mathematician to know that those numbers are horrendous.

In 2019, the Bills completely changed their offensive philosophy. They redesigned their route concepts to focus in the short to intermediate range (0-15 yards downfield) and Allen has responded. This has also helped Allen significantly reduce mistakes. The Bills’ pressure, sack and interception rates decreased across the board.

When Robert Mays met with Allen last November, Allen wanting to improve in all the aspects Cole discussed. Allen said he focused on improving his touch and taking what the defense gives him. He told Mays “My mind-set has changed from ‘How can I throw a touchdown?’ to ‘How can I get a first down?”. (That’s the second Mays article I have mentioned. If you are not reading Mays by now, what are you doing?)

As I discussed in the beginning of this piece, Allen has mastered interviewing. He knows the right answers. But his answers do not necessarily translate to the field.

Per Next Gen Stats, Allen’s expected completion percentage rose from 60.5% to 62.6%. However, his completion percentage above expectation (CPOE) still ranked fifth worst in the league at -3.7%. Believe it or not, that was an improvement from his second-worst -7.7% CPOE in 2018.

That fact is: Allen will not suddenly become deadly accurate. Slight improvements are possible, but do not expect anything drastic. Mike Leach once said “I just haven’t seen that happen. I’ve seen guys improve, but they don’t all of a sudden become accurate.” Quarterbacks can improve in a multitude of ways — accuracy is not one of them.

I’m not much of an X’s and O’s guy, but Seth Galina does know his way around All-22 film. He analyzed Allen’s performance against Houston in the Wild Card round and was not impressed.

Josh Allen was bad as a passer against a bottom third Houston defense. Call it a "gritty" performance all you want but I just think there are so many plays left on the field. The whole narrative looks different if Roby doesn't drop those two picks.
Here's the thread: pic.twitter.com/gLPhiKZCma

— Seth Galina (@SethGalina) January 7, 2020

Interestingly, much of Galina’s criticism stemmed from Allen’s inability to quickly progress through route concepts, as opposed to his accuracy. On the controversial play near halftime in which John Brown failed to get two feet in bounds inside the Texans 5-yard line, Galina believed Allen was as much to blame as Brown.

Based on those mistakes, there might be some hope. Allen is incredibly inexperienced. He started just two seasons at Wyoming and rarely faced Power Five competition. While other second year quarterbacks have thrived in recent years, it is unfair to expect Allen to do the same. Mahomes, Watson and Jackson are outliers, not the norm.

On the other hand, it has literally never been easier to play quarterback in the NFL. Yet, Allen has topped 250 passing yards in only four career starts and 70% completion percentage in just three. The Bills’ offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, interviewed for head coaching jobs this offseason based on his role in elevating Allen from essentially the worst quarterback in the league to merely below-average.

---

I’ve poured over more Josh Allen content in the past couple weeks than any human should legally be allowed. He occupies for rent-free space in my head than LeBron does in Skip Bayless’.

Everytime I listen to Allen speak or read about his rags-to-riches story, I talk myself into him. But everytime I watch him play or look at his statistics, I quickly talk myself out of him. 

That is the Josh Allen paradox. He inspires equal parts optimism as pessimism; he is both a dream and a nightmare. He will either win Buffalo its first ever championship or break our spirits like a folding table during a Bills Mafia tailgate.