Patrick Mahomes II has officially been named the 2019 NFL’s Most Valuable Player. After a breakout season in which he led his Chiefs to the AFC’s top record while becoming the second quarterback to break 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. Mahomes won the award with 41 of 50 votes, followed by quarterback Drew Brees who received the other nine votes. Some of the other strong candidates were defensive tackle Aaron Donald and quarterbacks Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck.
Notice which major position group is nowhere to be found amongst the top vote getters: running back. But, Todd Gurley led the Rams to an 8-0 start and the NFC’s number two seed? Didn’t Ezekiel Elliott carry the Cowboys to the playoffs? Why didn’t they get any significant MVP consideration? To put it simply, running backs don’t matter.
The phrase has achieved meme status across football Twitter, but it was backed up on the field this season. When Todd Gurley missed the last two weeks of the regular season, the Rams signed C.J. Anderson off the street; Anderson ran for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Le’Veon Bell sat out the entire season in a contract dispute, yet the Steelers offense didn’t miss a beat under James Conner. Then, when Conner went down with an injury, the offense kept humming along with a college tight end in the backfield. Those are only a few of many examples. It’s true that running backs across the league ran for 4.4 yards per carry this season – the highest in league history – but that’s simply a product of defenses giving more attention to pass defense.
The last running back to win the MVP was Adrian Peterson’s legendary 2012 season. Since that season, the game of football has evolved tremendously. Passing offenses have completely taken over, which is exactly what the league wants. Quarterbacks have won the last six MVP awards, and that trend is likely to continue. What would it take for another running back to win the NFL’s top individual honor? There are few things that would need to happen.
1) Finish with the League’s Top Record
The MVP winner has earned a first-round playoff bye in each season since Peterson’s in 2012, meaning they were a top-two seed in their conference. For a running back to steal the MVP award, their team must not only be the top seed of the conference, but have the league’s best record as well. Otherwise, the quarterback of the team with the better record immediately presents a stronger MVP case. Even if Todd Gurley broke every rushing record in the books this season, Drew Brees would still have a stronger case for the award because his team had a better record and beat Gurley’s head-to-head in the regular season. Simply squeaking in as a wild-card team, like Peterson’s Vikings, would not suffice in 2019 and beyond.
2) Rewrite the Record Books
All MVPs have had great statistical seasons; a running back would need a historically sensational season. They would need to break nearly every meaningful record, starting with Eric Dickerson’s yardage record of 2,105 and both of Ladainian Tomlinson’s touchdown records (28 rushing and 31 total).
Additionally, his team’s passing game would need to be at least viable in order for the offense to be viable and he would need to be heavily involved. Surpassing the 1,000 receiving yards mark – a feat achieved by only Roger Craig in 1985 and Marshall Faulk in 1999 – would be ideal. It wouldn’t hurt to top Marshall Faulk’s record of nine receiving touchdowns as well.
If at any point during this section, you thought to yourself, “There’s no way any player can break all those records. It’s impossible”, you are probably right. The season I’ve outlined requires the player to have at least 2,106 rushing yards, 29 rushing touchdowns, 1,000 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns (39 total touchdowns). It would take an impossible season for a running back to win the MVP award. That’s the point.
3) Defining Narrative
If the award went to the player that was truly the most valuable to their team, Tom Brady should win almost every year. In reality, headlines and narratives drive the MVP vote in every sport. At the end of the day, human beings decide who wins the award; people can be seduced by a feel-good story or fall victim to voter fatigue.
In ten to twenty years, when we look back on the season, the one thing we remember must be this player.
It would take quite a set circumstances to muster the necessary drama. First of all, the running back’s starting quarterback must either suck or get injured early in the season. This establishes the narrative that the running back is “carrying the team”. This is crucial; otherwise, the glory of the team’s success would go to the quarterback instead. Playing behind a poor offensive line, creating the narrative that he’s “doing it all on his own”, would add to his case. The running back’s pursuit of the records previously outlined is another captivating storyline that would grow with each week.
If narratives are the car that drives the MVP vote, the media is the gas that runs the car. Therefore, the player must be in a big market, where the media will give the most attention to the player. Would the media truly appreciate a running back playing in Arizona or Tampa Bay? The perfect team for this scenario would be the Dallas Cowboys. To continue the car analog, the Cowboys would be a Lamborghini. Skip Bayless would talk about the guy literally every single day (I can only imagine the tweets. “Is [insert player name] having the greatest season of all time BY ANY ATHLETE? I say yes. Next on @Undisputed”). Playing for America’s Team would exponentially increase the media’s coverage of the player and their chances of winning the MVP.
Peterson’s 2012 season, where he returned from a torn ACL in only eight months and finished just eight yards short of Dickerson’s record, sets a baseline. However, the best precedent is actually found in the NBA. Russell Westbrook’s 2016-17 season with the Oklahoma City Thunder met most of the criteria I’ve outlined. During that season, he carried the Thunder to the playoffs. Westbrook’s mediocre supporting cast placed a hefty burden on him to win games. In fact, Westbrook became the first player since Oscar Robertson in 1961-62 to average a triple double. He also surpassed Robertson’s record of 41 triple doubles in a single season with 42. Both feats were thought to be next to impossible before Westbrook achieved them.
Westbrook dominated the headlines throughout the season. During the previous offseason, his superstar teammate, Kevin Durant, signed with the rival Golden State Warriors. The narrative became Durant abandoned Westbrook in Oklahoma City and Westbrook became a folk-hero, not only in Oklahoma City, but across the league.
Russell Westbrook’s MVP season was notable in one other aspect: he probably shouldn’t have won. James Harden trailed Westbrook by less than two points per game and nearly averaged a triple double himself (8.1 rebounds per game). Furthermore, Harden’s Rockets won eight more game than Westbrook’s Thunder. In hindsight, the media messed up. The voters got caught up in the hasn’t-been-done-in-fifty-years stats and the soap opera worthy narrative.
The same would need to happen in the NFL. A running back would need to capture the media’s attention and divert voters from the true meaning of the most valuable player award. He would have to build on Peterson’s unforgettable 2012 season. In the modern NFL, he would need to (1) have the league’s best record, (2) play in a big market (3) carry a mediocre at best quarterback behind a poor offensive line, and (4) break nearly every rushing record imaginable. I would put the odds at about 1,000,000-to-1, roughly the same as Tom Brady ever retiring.