My 2019 NFL Over/Under Win Total Predictions

Finally. The NFL season is only a matter of days away.

I wanted to give my preseason thoughts on which teams I like and don’t like. What better way than predicting over/under win totals? To be clear, I am not placing any of these bets, but it’s a fun exercise that hits every team in a concise manner. For clarification purpose, I used the over/under totals posted on the Action Network on August 22.

New England Patriots: 11 wins — OVER

Belichick. Brady. Over.

Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 wins — OVER

I could say the same of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. There’s only one threat in their division and (spoiler alert) I think the Chargers will regress. Also, Tyreek Hill is playing for some reason? It’s morally wrong but it’s great for the Chiefs’ over.

Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 wins — UNDER

Here’s my first bold prediction. Since they made the Super Bowl, it’s been largely forgotten that the Rams offense quietly struggled a bit in the second half (losses to Chicago and Philadelphia). They made the Super Bowl in large part due to an officianting gaffe. In the Super Bowl, the Patriots clearly figured out McVay’s signature 11 personnel, never adapted and were held to a measly three points. I fully expect McVay to adapt this season, but I’m not a Goff-believer and I don’t think the depth is quite up to par, especially on defense.

New Orleans Saints: 10.5 wins — OVER

I want to take the under on the Saints. I’m not sure I buy the defense remaining great and I believe Drew Brees’ struggles at the end of last season were not a fluke. However, I’m not rushing to count Brees out and the Saints have a favorable schedule. The Saints won’t set the world on fire, but 11-5 or 12-4 seems likely.

Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 wins — UNDER

Andrew Luck is still not practicing due to… a calf strain? A high ankle sprain? A bone injury? The Colts won’t have the benefit of the league’s easiest schedule this season and are relying on a repeat performance from a defense lacking big-name talent. There’s simply too many questions in Indianapolis to expect ten wins. Luckily, I think Jacoby Brissett will hold down the fort and the Colts can squeak out nine wins and a division title.

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5 wins — OVER

The Eagles roster is STACKED and Wentz is healthy again. Sharp Football Analysis projects the Eagles with the NFL’s third-easiest schedule. This is the lock of the year.

Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 wins — UNDER

The Chargers are in for a rough year and it is NOT because of Melvin Gordon’s holdout. The loss of Derwin James is monumental – there is no replacement for the First Team All-Pro safety. The Chargers went 6-1 in one-score games last season, which is unsustainable. Also, they are the Chargers – they tend to screw things up.

Chicago Bears: 9.5 wins — UNDER

The Bears’ defense was inevitably going to regress and then they lost defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to Denver. Don’t get me wrong, I still expect the Bears to have a top 5-ish defense, but I don’t think it will be able to cover up for the offense’s shortcomings like they did last year. That means it’s up to Mitchell Trubisky to take a leap forward. Sorry, not happening.

Cleveland Browns: 9.5 wins — OVER

I love everything about the Browns. Baker Mayfield is my favorite quarterback in the league and Odell Beckham Jr. is probably my favorite wide receiver in the league. Freddie Kitchens is a delight. But, damn, ten wins is a lot to ask. Damn you, Browns fans, for pushing this win total up an extra win. Ah fuck it, I’m taking the over.

Green Bay Packers: 9 wins — OVER

I still can’t believe the Packers trusted Matt LaFleur with Aaron Rodgers’ post-prime seasons, but he has to be an improvement over Mike McCarthy. Their schedule is very much a case of the haves (Philadelphia, Dallas, and Kansas City) and have nots (Raiders, Giants, Redskins). That means the Packers’ season hinges on divisional games, where I think he will feast. I’ve got the Packers winning the NFC North.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9 wins — OVER

After Antonio Brown tried to tear the Pittsburgh locker room apart, expect the Steelers to rally together. The Big Ben revenge tour is real. The Browns are coming and the Ravens are as pesky as ever, but the Steel Curtain hasn’t closed just yet.

Minnesota Vikings: 9 wins — PUSH

While (most of) the rest of the NFL continues to trend towards more aggressive passing attacks, the Vikings want to re-establish the run. Honestly, it might just work as Kirk Cousins is the play-action god. He finished 2nd in the league in completion percentage on play-action passes last season. With Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen running routes and Dalvin Cook in the backfield, I’m cautiously optimistic about the Vikings offense. However, Minnesota has four prime-time games including two on Monday Night Football. 9-7 feels right for Minnesota. Can I push? I’m going to push.

Dallas Cowboys: 9 wins — OVER

The Cowboys season hinges on whether or not star running back, Ezekiel Elliot, returns from his holdout.

*long pause for laughter*

Just kidding! Running backs don’t matter! In reality, the Cowboys season does hinge on Dak Prescott’s ability to gel with the NFL’s youngest offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore. If Moore is closer to Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan than Brian Schottenheimer, I like Dallas’ odds at a Wild Card berth.

Atlanta Falcons: 8.5 wins — OVER

The Falcons won 7 games last season despite losing the entirety of their defensive core in the first few weeks of the season. However, they have a brutal schedule and they hired freakin’ Dirk Koetter to be the new offensive coordinator. On the bright side, the Falcons still have Matt Ryan, who made Steve Sarkisian look competent.. Atlanta supposedly has a difficult schedule (27th easiest according to Sharp Football Stats), but I disagree. They will catch the Colts in Week 3 (I don’t expect Luck to be playing), the Rams are coming back down to Earth and the Saints are a division rival. Suddenly, four of their five most difficult games are very winnable. I’ve talked myself into the over and Matt Ryan as a sneaky MVP dark horse.

Baltimore Ravens: 8.5 wins — UNDER

I appreciate Baltimore’s commitment to zig while the rest of the league (outside of New England) zags. The Ravens will start 2-0 against the Dolphins and Cardinals, so all they need to do is go 7-7 the rest of the way. With games in Kansas City, Seattle and Los Angeles (Rams), plus a home contest against New England and four games against Cleveland and Pittsburgh, it won’t be an easy road. I really like the acquisition of Earl Thomas on defense, so I expect the Ravens keep games close. I believe Lamar Jackson actually can throw a football, but I’m not sure he can in the fourth quarter on the road or against a division rival. I think both Pittsburgh and Cleveland will win at least ten games, so that means there is a ceiling on the Ravens’ win total. I like the Ravens, but I’ve forced myself take the under.

Seattle Seahawks: 8.5 wins — OVER

The Seahawks parallel the Ravens in many ways: run-first offenses, historically good defenses, great coaching. Contrary to Baltimore, I think the Seahawks’ division rivals are overrated and Russell Wilson ranks highly amongst elite quarterbacks. I’m buying stock in Wilson’s MVP odds and the Seahawks’ over.

Houston Texans: 8.5 wins — UNDER

Is it bad to hope Deshaun Watson gets injured so the Texans bottom out and Bill O’Brien gets fired? Or maybe he can prematurely holdout like Zeke?Because Watson is too good to win less than seven games and O’Brien wields too much power to be fired for anything more than five wins. Houston plays an extremely difficult schedule, a far cry from last season’s cakewalk. A mediocre 7-9 or 8-8 season seems destined in Houston.

Tennessee Titans: 8 wins — UNDER

Why hasn’t Tennessee hired Chip Kelly to be the offensive coordinator yet? I wrote that as a joke, but it makes a helluva lot of sense. Just hand him like $5 million a year to leave UCLA. There is real talent in Tennessee, but I don’t think they have the offensive scheme to take advantage of it.

San Francisco 49ers: 8 wins — UNDER

I believe in Kyle Shanahan, but not that much. Eight wins is absurd with the Niners’ lack of talent. I’ll take the over on wherever Shanahan’s new gig is next season, though.

My new dream scenario is that the 49ers fire Kyle Shanahan and the Texans pair him with Deshaun Watson next season

— Nolan Hughes (@nolan_hughes24) August 23, 2019

Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5 wins — UNDER

I don’t know what’s going on in Jacksonville. Blake Bortles is gone, but is Nick Foles sans Doug Pederson really much of an upgrade? The AFC South doesn’t have a bottom-feeder to beat up on, but there aren’t any elite teams either (although, they don’t play the Colts until the end of the season, so Luck should be starting by then). Overall, the defense remains exceptional, Foles provides stability and one of their receivers is inevitably going to breakout. That’s typically a recipe for eight wins.

However, a potential shitstorm is brewing in Jacksonville and things could get very bad, very fast. They have eight win talent, but the Jags could easily return to their rightful place in the top 5 of the draft.

Carolina Panthers: 7.5 wins — OVER

Everyone loves to point out the Panthers 1-7 second half finish last year, but fail to factor in the injury to Cam Newton. With a healthy Cam, I expect the Panthers to play more like they did in the first half last season (6-2 record).

New York Jets: 7 wins — OVER

I remember Darnold throwing this magical touchdown against the Bills last year and I’ve been a believer ever since. Adam Gase is a strange fella, but the Dolphins’ struggles were an indictment on Ryan Tannehill’s talent (or lack thereof), not Gase’s. Their schedule is very favorable; in Weeks 9-14, the Jets’ opponents are the Dolphins, Giants, Redskins, Raiders, Bengals, and Dolphins. They should win at least five of those games, so they only need to scrap two or three additional wins. I want “in” on the ground floor of the Darnold breakout. (Plus, their new helmets are gorgeous.)

Denver Broncos: 7 wins — UNDER

With Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Chris Harris Jr. and new head coach, Vic Fangio, I expect the Broncos defense to leap back into the conversation for the best defense in football. However, they are rolling with Joe Flacco and Drew Lock at quarterback… Give me the under all day.

Buffalo Bills: 6.5 wins — OVER

The Bills started Nathan Peterman twice in each of the past two seasons and still managed 9 wins and 6 wins, respectively. Despite my reservations about Josh Allen’s legitimacy as a starting quarterback (frankly, he sucks), Sean McDermott is a helluva coach and the Bills defense is legit good. Cole Beasley, John Brown and Devin Singletary aren’t stars, but they will give Allen some quality playmakers. Seven or eight wins is not unreasonable. 

Detroit Lions: 6.5 wins — UNDER

The NFC North is loaded and Matt Patricia is a bad head coach. I’ll be generous and give the Lions a 1-5 division record, which means they must somehow go 6-4 outside of division play to hit the over.

*checks schedule*

Oh, they get the first crack at Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid system in Week 1, then play the Charges, Eagles and Chiefs in weeks 2-4? The better bet might be the Lions odds at the #1 pick in the draft.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5 wins — UNDER

The offense will be among the league’s best with Bruce Arians steering the ship and Mike Evans, OJ Howard and Chris Godwin running routes. However, their defense is utter garbage and their schedule looks difficult. Six wins seems right.

Oakland Raiders: 6.5 wins — UNDER

Jon Gruden is closer to Gordon Ramsey than a football coach. The nickname “Charlie Checkdown” will be renamed “Carr-lie Checkdown” after this season. I would put the chances of the Raiders winning seven games on ice. Nathan Peterman is on the roster. Welp, that’s it. I’m out of bad jokes.

New York Giants: 6 wins — UNDER

Their best player is a running back and they drafted a clone of their washed quarterback sixth overall. UNDERRRRRRR

Arizona Cardinals: 5 wins — OVER

The Cardinals are the must-watch team in the NFL behind Cleveland this season. I am bullish on Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, so the offense is fine. I even expect a few explosive weeks. The defense, however, might be the worst in the league and will be without Patrick Peterson for the first six games. 

Side note: I have a question for the football gods: What did the Cardinals do to deserve this post-bye week schedule (Rams, Steelers, Browns, @Seahawks, @Rams)? 

Miami Dolphins: 4.5 wins — OVER

The Dolphins front office seemingly wants to tank, but does their head coach know that? I will die on the “Josh Rosen is actually good” hill. They play 9 games against good teams and 7 against bad ones (plus the annual fluky win over the Patriots). Can they go 4-3 against the bad teams? I think so.