We’re at the point in the NFL season where I just want to skip to Wild Card Weekend. We know who the best team in the league is, who the next-best teams are, and who the worst teams are. Let’s just skip these Panthers-Packers, Jags-Ravens, and Steelers-Bengals games and get to the playoffs! (My motivation to skip the regular season definitely has nothing to do with my fantasy team turning into a juggernaut the second it got eliminated from the playoffs in Week 12. Absolutely nothing.)
Buffalo and Tennessee are Kansas City’s Greatest Threats
I don’t even think this is a hot take. Buffalo is 10-3, with their losses at the hands of Tennesee, Kansas City, and Arizona (on a fucking Hail Mary). Tennessee is just 9-4 but beat Buffalo back in Week 5 (if that even means anything at this point).
The thing about beating Kansas City is that your offense has to keep up with Mahomes and co. Considering the Chiefs are the most explosive offense in NFL history, that’s a tough ask. Additionally, your defense doesn’t have to be good — KC is going to score regardless — but they do have to make a couple of splash plays, like an interception, forced fumble or 30-yard sack.
Tennessee and Buffalo are the only AFC teams at this moment capable of both. According to Ben Baldwin’s site, the teams rank third and fourth respectively in EPA/play and Dropback EPA and second and third in Success Rate (SR). Kansas City is ahead in all three stats, while Green Bay falls to fifth in SR.
On early downs only, Tennessee actually ranks first in EPA/play, SR, Dropback EPA, Dropback SR, Rush EPA, and Rush SR. Buffalo ranks seventh, fourth, sixth, third, twenty-fifth, and nineteenth respectively.
As an objective sports fan, I really, really hope we get to see a rematch of the M*s*c C*ty M*r*cl* this January. As a native Buffalonian, I really, really hope not.
The Steelers Aren’t Very Good
Many smart people have been calling the Steelers overrated for quite some time. Many other people were upset by this because they are incapable/refuse to incorporate any nuance to an undefeated record.
Honestly, ignore Pittsburgh’s two-game losing streak. Look at their entire body of work. How many teams are better than them in the AFC? (I got this idea from @PFF_Moo and the PFF Forecast guys.)
- Kansas City? Obviously.
- Buffalo? Yup.
- Tennessee? The Titans’ offense is much more explosive, which is more predictive of future success. Despite the H2H loss, I’d take TEN.
- Indianapolis? Rivers is playing better than Roethlisberger and their defense is competent, so probably yes. (An outdoor playoff game in Pittsburgh is probably a different story.)
- Cleveland? On paper, the Browns are better. Good offense > good defense
- Baltimore? The first H2H game came down to essentially the final play and the second game was close despite RG3/McSorley playing QB for Baltimore. It’s close.
- Miami? This is probably the line where I become disrespectful to the Steelers. While Tua is arguably more talented than Roethlisberger at this stage, the Steelers have better receivers and frankly, I don’t trust Tua yet.
- Las Vegas? Hell, I think the Raiders could beat Pittsburgh in a win-or-go-home game right now. Maybe I’m overreacting to a couple of bad performances by Pittsburgh, but honestly, I don’t think I am.
Before you all go nuts and start harassing me — which would imply you read this far and care enough to text me, so on second thought go for it — this is from a mostly hypothetical perspective. Pittsburgh will most likely earn a home playoff game and thus will likely win a playoff game.
Take the Colts: Indy is the better team in a vacuum, but if you put Old Man Rivers in a playoff game in sub-20 degree temperatures with some wind, suddenly the Colts offense loses a lot of its explosiveness. Then again, the Colts can actually run the ball effectively at times.
As much as relying on a good defense to play great is unreliable, it can work. The Steelers offense has been stuck in the mud for several weeks, but they theoretically have the talent to turn it around — or at least turn it on for a few key drives in a big game.
Anyway, my point is that just because I would rank the Steelers somewhere from fifth to seventh in the AFC does not mean rule out a deep playoff run. I would simply have their odds lower than the teams ahead of them, which is nit-picking anyway. I’m basically saying the Colts have like a 22% to make the AFC title game and the Steelers have like an 18% chance. The difference is minimal and once home-field advantage is sorted out, Pittsburgh could easily climb right back into the top-four.
Jackson, Ravens Overcome Browns, Browns
The 47-42 affair between Baltimore and Cleveland may have been the game of the year so far. We shouldn’t have needed one, but Lamar Jackson reminded the world why he’s the reigning MVP. Jackson is the most unique quarterback in football; that’s how he can dominate a game while throwing just 17 times for 163 yards. The mere threat of him running — which generated 124 yards and two touchdowns for Baltimore — completely broke Cleveland’s secondary on the pivotal 4th-and-5 play when Jackson first returned from…. cramps.
Jackson accounts for four of the eight best QBR performances in the history of ESPN’s database, which goes back to 2006. The other names in the top eight: Carson Palmer (twice and leader), Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady, Mike Vick. I don’t know what that means, but it sure is interesting.
The Browns lost, and while moral victories in a playoff race are basically meaningless, the progression in Cleveland football is legitimate. Baker Mayfield looks more comfortable by the week in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt continue to, well, matter. The defense is another story; injuries have decimated the secondary, but the Browns need to devote much of their offseason to improving that unit and upgrading at linebacker.
Cleveland falls to 9-4, which every person in Northeast Ohio would’ve gladly taken before the season. With upcoming games against the still-terrible Giants and god-awful Jets, Cleveland’s 18-year playoff drought looks to be coming to a close. They might be a year away from making any noise in the playoffs though, akin to last year’s Bills. On the other hand, good luck stopping that offense in January.
Minnesota Wasted a Golden Opportunity
All the Vikings had to do was beat the extremely beatable Bucs to put themselves in serious playoff contention. Instead, they continued trotting out an incompetent kicker, running the ball too much, and blew the game, and maybe their season.
The Rams and Seahawks have all but clinched playoff berths, so that eliminates one Wild Card spot. Ditto for New Orleans and Tampa Bay now.
That leaves one spot for one of Arizona, Minnesota, and Chicago (barring a miracle sequence of events by Detroit, San Francisco, New York, and/or Washington). After losing to Tampa Bay, the Vikings trail Arizona by one game and have an inferior conference record (the first tie-breaking scenario).
The good news for Minnesota is that the Cardinals stink and have to play the 49ers and Rams in Weeks 16-17. The bad news is that Minnesota has to travel to New Orleans in Week 16, which won’t matter if they blow this week’s game against the Bears.
End the Taysom Hill Era, Please
Speaking of the Saints, Sean Payton’s borderline obsession with Taysom Hill needs to end. New Orleans fell behind 17-0 to an Eagles team trotting out its own version of Hill — actually, scratch that. That’s an insult to Jalen Hurts.
Once in this position, it made zero sense to continue playing Hill over Jameis Winston. Winston excels at pushing the ball downfield, the high-risk, high-reward playstyle necessary to win when your team is down by 17 points.
I just don’t understand Payton’s fascination with Hill. From an outsider’s perspective, it seems like he’s just bored of running the same offense for fifteen years with Brees. That is understandable on some level, but risking wins in search of entertaining himself seems selfish. New Orleans went all-in on this season to win a Super Bowl with Brees — save the fun stuff for next season.
AFC Playoff Race
The Chiefs win coupled with the Steelers lost puts Kansas City in the driver’s seat for the sole bye. Buffalo moves within a game of stealing the #2 seed from Pittsburgh and Tennessee currently occupies the AFC South lead via a tiebreaker over Indianapolis.
The Wild Card race is as tight as ever. Cleveland and Indy are tied at 9-4 for the fifth and sixth seeds. Despite their MNF win, Baltimore remains on the outside looking in. The 8-5 Dolphins currently hold the tiebreaker for the seventh over the Ravens. The Raiders blew a crucial game to the Colts this week, leaving them in a precarious spot. Finally, the Patriots Thursday Night debacle all but ended their 12-year postseason streak.
Moving forward, the Ravens still are in the driver’s seat for the seventh seed due to their upcoming schedule: vs. Jacksonville; vs. N.Y. Giants; at Cincinnati. The Dolphins control their own destiny, however. With three wins against the Patriots, Raiders and potentially-resting Bills, Miami would clinch a playoff berth.
The Colts, Titans and Browns are in prime positions to maintain their current status, but one slip-up could be devastating, especially for Indy and Tennessee who both have tough Week 16 opponents.
NFC Playoff Race
Let’s get the NFC East out of the way: Washington now has a one-game stranglehold on the division. The Giants would hold the tiebreaker over Washington, but with upcoming games against Cleveland and Baltimore, finding that win could prove difficult. Then again, one win (against Dallas in Week 17) might be all that’s necessary because these teams stink. The Eagles still stink.
At the top, Green Bay takes control of the race for the number one seed. The Saints’ loss to the Eagles could resemble the Patriots’ loss to Miami in Week 17 last year because now, in all likelihood, Drew Brees will have to win a game at Lambeu Field in late January. That seems…. ambitious.
The only real race at this point is for the final Wild Card berth. Arizona’s odds currently sit at 55%, but just two wins would vault those odds above 85%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s model. The Vikings will likely need to win out, which involves upsetting the Saints in Week 16. The Bears are technically still in the race, but their fans are much more interested in the status of their first-round draft pick than making a futile playoff push.
Kansas City is Inevitable
Almost nothing I wrote in this entire article matters because Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are inevitable; I cannot stress this enough.
They fell behind 10-0 to the Dolphins as Patrick Mahomes played probably the worst quarter of his career. He was intercepted twice and took a 30-yard sack.
Kansas City then scored 30 straight points to take a 20-point lead into the fourth quarter. It’s going to take a miracle to beat this team.