Oh boy. If you thought we mailed it in in Week 8, you won’t believe our Week 9 records.
First of all, a massive congratulations to Lauren on becoming the first member of the 0-5 club. It’s truly a historic accomplishment considering the collective ineptitude of this group. (To be fair, Scott and I each had just one win apiece. But, one is better than none.)
Onto Week 10. As always, we are using the Vegas Insider consensus lines.
Last week
- Lauren: 0-5 (!)
- Scott: 1-4
- Nolan: 1-4
Season
- Lauren: 21-24
- Scott: 20-25
- Nolan: 23-20-2
Lauren’s Picks
Carolina +6 vs Tampa Bay
Arizona -2.5 vs. Buffalo
New Orleans -9.5 vs. San Francisco
Baltimore -7 at New England
Minnesota -3 at Chicago
Scott’s Picks
Green Bay -13.5 vs. Jacksonville
Jacksonville is just so bad. I couldn’t even tell you who their best offensive player is. Based on that alone, I’ll take the Packers to cover the two touchdown spread. This feels like an easy breezy 35-14 win for the Pack.
New Orleans -9.5 vs. San Francisco
This is a lost season for the Niners. Injuries have destroyed what could have been another run to the Super Bowl or at least the NFC title game. With Michael Thomas back, this 10-point spread shouldn’t be too big of an ask for a Saints team coming off a blowout of the Bucs.
Miami -1.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This should be an awesome matchup. Tua has been as good or even better than advertised, and Brian Flores is maybe the Coach of the Year so far. Herbert is great as well and in the mix for Rookie of the Year with Burrow. I’m making this pick solely based on the fact that the Chargers continue to find new and increasingly tragic ways to blow games. Tua will probably throw a last-second game-winning TD into triple coverage.
Seattle +2.5 at Los Angeles Rams
This is another great NFC West matchup. This has all the makings of a shootout. I’m personally tired of wagering against Russell Wilson, who is the MVP favorite alongside Mahomes at the moment. The Rams have been great against the pass all season, but I think Wilson will find a way to make enough plays to pull out the victory. I’m also banking on another rough outing from Goff, who toggles between competence and complete incompetence on a seemingly weekly basis.
Minnesota -3 at Chicago
I have seen enough of the Chicago offense. I think everyone should be spared that train wreck. 2020 has been hard enough as it is. Even the Titans beleaguered defense mostly shut down the Bears. The Chicago D will probably be able to slow down Dalvin Cook a bit, but that might not mean a lot. As long as Kirk Cousins isn’t a disaster, which is always a possibility, this should be a fairly routine win for the Vikings.
Nolan’s Picks
Green Bay -13.5 vs. Jacksonville
The Packers, coming off a mini-bye, are hosting the terrible, no-good, very bad Jaguars. The trio of Rodgers/Jones/Adams is going to feast against the Jags’ young defense.
Philadelphia -4.5 at N.Y. Giants
The Eagles escaped with a one-point win against these Giants in Week 7, but much has changed in Philly. Jalen Reagor returned to the lineup in Week 9 and Miles Sanders is back this week. Ordinarily, a rookie receiver and a running back wouldn’t add much value, but the Eagles are desperate for playmakers. And Reagor and Sanders are playmakers. Also, with no Adam Case to fade, I must turn to Joe Judge and Jason Garrett.
Houston +4 at Cleveland
My rationale for this is almost entirely based on the fact that the Texans have the better quarterback. You would like to assume the Browns look fresh coming off a bye, but it’s Cleveland, so you can’t make such assumptions. I hope the wind in Northeast Ohio doesn’t cost me again.
Cincinnati +6.5 at Pittsburgh
I would’ve liked this pick better earlier in the week (opened at +10); however, I think the Bengals can/will pull off the upset so any points here are gold. Pittsburgh’s defense is legit, but the way to attack them is through the air. Cincinnati is already extremely pass-heavy, and without Joe Mixon, there is no incentive whatsoever to run. (Take from Eric Eager). The Steelers offense didn’t look great against the Cowboys last week and Roethlisberger has been banged up while on the COVID list this week. Joe Burrow also has yet to not cover on the season.
Baltimore -7 at New England
The reports coming out of Baltimore about their offense being too predictable are probably slightly overblown. However, considering they originated directly from Lamar Jackson, I think there will be an onus on Greg Roman to design a few new wrinkles this week. That’ll be enough to be New England, who barely beat the damn Jets six days ago.
Answering Week 9’s Questions
*insert obligatory Tua Tagovailoa question here*
As I wrote about in my Week 9 takeaways, Tagovailoa was exceptional last week. The Dolphins would not have won without him.
Can the Buccaneers hit the ground running with Antonio Brown?
In a word: No. Absolutely nothing went Tampa Bay’s way in their humiliating 38-3 loss to the Saints. I like to think the karma gods had something to do with that one. Then again, what have the Saints done to earn good karma points?
Are the Patriots tanking?
The Patriots win on Monday night was a perfect example of how tanking is a management-driven process, not a player-driven one. Bill Belichick and the Pats front office might be tanking, but Cam Newton sure as hell is not.
How does COVID affect Baltimore and Detroit?
The Ravens offense was the issue in Week 9, not the defense. Similarly, Detroit’s defense — specifically their inability to tackle Dalvin Cook — did them in, not Matthew Stafford. Although, what isn’t going wrong in Detroit?
Will Seattle take the bait?
I asked this question in reference to the Seahawks offense against the Bills defense. However, I will take full credit for the Bills mind-tricking Pete Carroll into developing a run-first game plan for stopping the Bills offense. Apparently, Carroll only watched film of the Bills bad weather games and neglected the first four weeks when Josh Allen set the league on fire.
Five Questions for Week 10
Who has the dumbest Tagovailoa vs. Herbert take?
When the #5 overall draft pick faces the #6 overall draft pick in their rookie seasons, there will inevitably be plenty of eyes on the game. When the #6 pick has outplayed the #5 pick to this point, there will inevitably be plenty of outlandish opinions.
The talking heads, Skip Bayless, Stephen A. Smith and X, are obviously the front-runners here, but my sleeper is Dan Orlovsky.
Can the Eagles pull away from the pack?
The NFC East leading Eagles face the last-place Giants this week, but only 1.5 games separate the teams. Philadelphia has a chance to establish some distance between them and the rest of the putrid division. I want the Giants to create maximum entropy for entertainment purposes, though.
Does Seattle have an answer for the Rams passing game?
In a similarly important game, the Seahawks will try to fend off the third-place Rams, who sit just one game back for the NFC West lead. Seattle has obviously been torched through the air all season, which should be exactly what Jared Goff needs to get going. The Rams have been doing some creative stuff defensively this year, but you have to expect Russell Wilson to try and redeem himself after last week’s four-turnover performance. This should be yet another must-watch Seahawks game.
How did Bills-Cardinals become the most exciting game of the week?
When you have young quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Kyler Murray, the best thing you can do is get them a top-tier wide receiver. The Cardinals gave the Texans a bag of peanuts for DeAndre Hopkins, the best possession receiver in the game. The Bills paid market-value for Stefon Diggs, but his elite separation skills have fit perfectly with Allen’s skillset.
Just two years ago, the Bills and Cardinals ran two of the least efficient and explosive offenses in NFL history. Now, they have two of the best offenses in the league, and, in different ways, two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in football. How the hell did we get here?
Will I watch a single second of Vikings-Bears?
The Bears offense is unwatchable, yet Allen Robinson is on my fantasy team. Kirk Cousins in primetime is a disaster waiting to happen. I have better things to do with my life than subject myself to mental torture.