There was no Week 10 Takeaways article this week, as it the NBA Draft and Free Agency took priority. (If you’re into basketball, check out my piece about the Suns acquiring Chris Paul.)
Also, it’s Week 11. Are we really learning that much about these teams? The Chiefs are the Super Bowl favorites as long as Patrick Mahomes is upright. Sorry Pittsburgh, but you’re number two at best. The rest of the teams in the AFC playoff picture have easily exploitable flaws… except the Dolphins? Well, let’s see what they look like when the defense stops handing them a touchdown every week.
There is no Kansas City in the NFC — it’s a giant, indiscernible clusterfuck. I don’t know if we can confidently pick a favorite until the seeding sorts itself out. Even then, I would not feel confident picking Green Bay (current favorites for the one-seed) with home field advantage and a bye. It’s a mess.
I think this is why our picks have been so terrible of late. We know the Chiefs and the Steelers are good and the Jets are terrible. But everyone else????
As always, we are using the Vegas Insider consensus lines. (Also, quick shout out to Nick Chubb, who saved me from an 0-5 week. Thanks, buddy!)
Last week
- Lauren: 2-3
- Scott: 3-2
- Nolan: 1-4
Season
- Lauren: 23-27
- Scott: 23-27
- Nolan: 24-24-2
Lauren’s Picks
New Orleans -3.5 vs. Atlanta
Finally, it’s Taysom Hill time!!!! There’s nothing I want more than for this guy to go off and show he’s more than a plug-and-play. I think the Saints’ offense is going to look the best it has all season as Jameis Winston gets some snaps and Hill scores a passing and receiving touchdown. This is going to be fun.
Green Bay +1.5 at Indianapolis
The Jaguars gave the Packers a run for their money last week. Oh, yeah, the Jaguars beat the Colts in week one — good times. Green Bay won’t be caught sleeping this week as Matt LaFleur lends his old team (the Titans) a little help by beating Indianapolis.
Cincinnati +2 at Washington
I really want Alex Smith to get his first victory since coming back from his gruesome injury, but I just don’t think it comes against Joey Burrow. It’s no secret the rookie is talented, and if the Washington Football Team does win, it will be not Burrow’s fault.
Minnesota -7.5 vs. Dallas
Picking against Dallas is becoming the easiest pick of the week. Dalvin Cook is going to have himself a day and the Cowboys are going to continue to do what they do every season: disappoint.
Kansas City -7.5 at Las Vegas
Two things: The Chiefs are coming off their bye and Patrick Mahomes isn’t losing to the Raiders again. I smell a classic, red-hot PM15 performance on Sunday Night Football brewing.
Scott’s Picks
Cleveland -2.5 vs. Philadelphia
The entire NFC East remains an embarrassment. Somehow, after losing to the Giants last week to fall to 3-5-1, the Eagles are leading that crap division. Philly has at least been competitive in mostly every game, but I think the Browns will take care of business at home (famous last words). I’m a tad concerned that Myles Garrett is out, but I’m going with my gut that the NFC East will continue to be a dumpster fire.
Green Bay +1.5 at Indianapolis
What am I missing here? Yes, the Colts are solid and continued their decades-long dominance of my beloved Titans last week. But Aaron Rodgers and company still look to be one of the top contenders in the NFC. Also, the Packers are coming off of a subpar performance against the Jags and they have a proven ability to turn it on to silence doubts. The Colts defense is great, but I think the Packers offense will do enough to not only cover but win.
Minnesota -7 vs. Dallas
Sure, Andy Dalton is back or whatever. Who cares? The Cowboys finally ridded themselves of Jason Garrett and somehow went backwards with their hire. This team hasn’t won in over a month, and they aren’t going to today either. Minnesota hasn’t lost in over a month. That trend will continue today with an easy breezy win.
Miami -3.5 at Denver
I love this Miami team, which is suddenly one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The same cannot be said for Denver. Drew Lock is simply not good enough. Give me the Dolphins to win their 6th straight and keep the AFC playoff picture even more crowded than it already was.
Kansas City -7.5 at Las Vegas
The Chiefs’ only loss came at the hands of the Raiders. Since then, the Chiefs have won three of their last four by a minimum of nine points. I see KC and Mahomes laying a smack down on the Raiders today.
Nolan’s Picks
Pittsburgh -10.5 at Jacksonville
I know the Jags played the Packers tough last week, but I think that says more about Green Bay than Jacksonville. I hate how often I cite Pittsburgh’s defense as my rationale, but they are simply better than Green Bay’s and Jake Luton (is that a real person?) is not good.
Cincinnati +1.5 at Washington
I can’t quit Joe Burrow. I underestimated the Steelers last week, but I feel confident I am not doing so with the Football Team. People do know they lost to the Lions, right? Washington came back in that game because blowing leads is what Detroit does, not because Washington is good.
Green Bay +1.5 at Indianapolis
I’m in agreement with Scott here. If AJ Brown catches that deep ball last week, the Titans might have won outright. Now given the same opportunity, MVS might drop that pass, too; but unlike Tennessee, Green Bay won’t be afraid to air it out. Phillip Rivers can look competent playing from ahead, but he won’t be able to keep up in a shootout with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.
Dallas +7.5 at Minnesota
Andy Dalton is back! Look, I don’t expect much of the Cowboys in general, but have we forgotten the Vikings aren’t good? They have zero secondary and the pass rush isn’t much better. Don’t let the Bears’ offensive ineptitude fool you into thinking Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup won’t be running wide open all afternoon.
Kansas City -7.5 at Las Vegas
The Chiefs one loss this season came the one week I picked them in a survivor pool. Oh, and it was against the Raiders. You can bet Mahomes and Reid spent their bye week devising inhumane things of which to torture the Raiders’ secondary.
Five Questions Entering Week 11
Why the fuck are the Saints starting Taysom Hill?
He may have more experience in New Orleans and there are financial benefits to sitting Jameis Winston — but the fact of the matter is that Taysom Hill is not a real quarterback. He is 30 years old and has ten career completions.
Does Andy Dalton give Dallas a chance moving forward?
The Cowboys are pretty terrible at all aspects of football. They’re only strength is at wide receiver. If Dalton can simply hit Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup 20 times a game, it’s not inconceivable the Cowboys could win a couple games. That might be enough in the NFC East.
I fully expect the Cowboys to continue sucking, for the record. I’m just saying it’s not impossible for them to win a game or two the rest of the way.
Are the Ravens broken?
I wrote before the season that the one weakness for the Ravens on paper was their lack of offensive line depth. Marshall Yanda’s retirement was felt almost immediately and Ronnie Stanley’s season-ending injury turned an on-paper weakness into an on-field one. Baltimore’s poor offensive line has magnified their lack of talent at wide receiver, as none of their “playmakers” can get open in under 2.5 seconds. Lamar Jackson has thrown for 200 yards just four times all season, and hasn’t done it in a win since Week 2. I don’t know what that means considering Baltimore operates differently than other teams, but it backs up what I’m seeing.
Tennessee doesn’t have a pass rush, so this is as good an opportunity as any for the Ravens to get back on track. It’s quietly a massive game for postseason implications, as Baltimore will likely drop below the 7-seed with a loss.
Do we finally get a good game on Monday Night Football?
The Rams and Bucs are rather similar teams when you get past the names on the jersey. Both teams, for better or worse, have won games in large part because of their defense. Both teams have quarterbacks who play well in perfect circumstances, but struggle outside of those situations. Both teams have offensive minded head coaches who struggle with decision-making.
This game has pretty significant postseason seeding implications as well. I might actually watch this Monday Night game!
Which versions of the Packers and Colts show up?
The Packers have looked unbeatable at times this year, yet almost lost to the Jaguars last week. Indianapolis has played arguably the easiest schedule in football this year, and actually lost to the Jaguars.
I still don’t buy the idea that the Colts defense is anything special. Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t have a problem lighting them up, but the same was true a week ago against a worse opponent. Phillip Rivers has looked serviceable at times, but incompetent at others. I picked the Packers because I assume the good version of Green Bay shows up, but who knows with these teams.
Answering Week 10’s Questions
Who has the dumbest Tagovailoa vs. Herbert take?
I’ll be honest: I don’t watch the sports talk TV anymore and I didn’t see any wild takes from check-marks on Twitter. I’m sure they are out there, though.
Can the Eagles pull away from the pack?
I expected the Eagles to beat the Giants and take control of the NFC East; I did not expect Daniel Jones to once again morph into Michael Vick against Philadelphia. The Giants win satisfied my desire for maximum chaos in the worst division in NFL history, so I’ll take a half-win. (Times are tough.)
Does Seattle have an answer for the Rams passing game?
Jared Goff threw for a relatively efficient 300 yards, but the Seahawks did an okay job slowing down the Rams on early downs. Los Angeles prevailed because Seattle was terrible on 3rd and 4th downs and Russell Wilson committed three turnovers.
On the bright side, Seattle regained the division lead with a Thursday Night win over Arizona.
How did Bills-Cardinals become the most exciting game of the week?
I have no words.
Will I watch a single second of Vikings-Bears?
I watched two plays totaling about twenty seconds of game time: Cordarrelle Patterson’s kickoff return touchdown and Justin Jefferson dancing after a big completion.