For the first time all season, I have dropped below .500. If only Joe Burrow hadn’t torn his knee and MVS could hold onto the football, but I digress.

Scott and Lauren both managed to sneak the Saints -6 in at Vegas Insider before the line spiked to -16.5. I feel like there is some funny business going on…. or maybe I’m just bitter because I didn’t make the pick in time. Onto Week 12!

Last week

  • Lauren: 1-4
  • Scott: 1-4
  • Nolan: 2-3

Season

  • Lauren: 24-31
  • Scott: 24-31
  • Nolan: 26-27-2

Lauren’s Picks

Tennessee +3 at Indianapolis

Las Vegas -3 at Atlanta

Miami -7 at N.Y. Jets

New Orleans -6 at Denver

L.A. Rams -6.5 vs. San Francisco

Scott’s Picks

Las Vegas -3 at Atlanta

Arizona -2 at New England

N.Y. Giants -6 at Cincinnati

Carolina +3 at Minnesota

New Orleans -6 at Denver

Nolan’s Picks

Tennessee +3 at Indianapolis

This game really should not be held today as the Colts are decimated by COVID-19. However, the line hasn’t really moved even as more and more Indianapolis starters are ruled out. I’m picking Tennessee to win, so the points are just gravy.

Cleveland -7 at Jacksonville

Picking the Browns to win by more than a touchdown is asking for pain, but picking Mike Glennon sans DJ Chark to lose by more than a touchdown feels like a lock. If Gardner Minshew was playing, I would not pick Cleveland with Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward are out.

I witnessed Mike Glennon’s unranked NC State team upset EJ Manuel and #3 Florida State in person. The Bills then drafted Manuel in the first round of the draft. What does that have to do with this game? Absolutely nothing.

Kansas City -3.5 at Tampa Bay

This feels like a trap, considering the Chiefs are near the top of the market and the Bucs have arguably never been lower this year. However, the Bucs secondary is short-handed, which Kansas City’s plethora of speed demons and possession monsters will exploit. If there’s one thing we know about Mahomes, it’s that he’s competitive as hell. He has not forgotten the 2018 AFC Championship Game. He knows this is probably his last chance to personally hand Brady an L before Brady retires.

Green Bay -8.5 vs. Chicago

The Packers have been lethal coming off losses this season. That’s a bit anecdotal and I don’t typically expect blowouts in division games. But with Rodgers coming off a loss that wasn’t really his fault and facing — I can’t believe it took me this long to say it — MITCHELL TRUBISKY, I like the Packers.

Seattle -6.5 at Philadelphia

The Seahawks always seem to play in weird, close games, yet just two of their seven wins have been within seven points. The Eagles are arguably the worst team Seattle has played all year — actually that’s not really arguable. The Russell Wilson MVP campaign will regain steam as Seattle is set to face the Eagles, Giants, Jets and Football Team over the next month. 

Week 11 Takeaways

1. Patrick Mahomes is the G.O.A.T.

Whether you like it or not, Mahomes is becoming the greatest football player (athlete?) of all-time right in front of our eyes. I wrote about this on Monday and Rany Jazayerli did at The Ringer as well. Read them.

2. The Rams are for real.

For much of the season, the Rams only wins came against the NFC East and the Bears. Those types of wins don’t inspire much confidence. However, after two consecutive wins against the Seahawks and Buccaneers (in Tampa Bay), the Rams have proven they belong in the discussion to lose to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

3. Sean Payton might have been right?

Taysom Hill looked pretty good at quarterback last week. But it was against Atlanta’s worst pass defense in the NFL. Let’s see what he does against Vic Fangio, who forced Tua Tagovailoa to the bench a week ago.