Oct 04 2020
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Week 4 has been simply awful and we haven’t even reached the Sunday slate yet. First, the Titans have a COVID-19 breakout on their team. Fortunately, the outbreak did not spread to the Vikings, the Titan’s opponent last Sunday. Unfortunately, the Titans matchup with the equally undefeated Steelers has been postponed.

On Thursday, we were subjected to a sorry excuse for a nationally televised game between the winless Broncos and winless Jets. It was as bad as we imagined: Noah Fant injured his ankle, Gregg Williams sent his defense head hunting in garbage time and worst of all, Braxton Berrios was held without a catch. Just an all around travesty.

Then, right as we thought we were out of the woods, Cam Newton tests positive for COVID-19. I haven’t seen an update on his health, but I certainly hope he is asymptomatic or at worst showing only mild symptoms. To prevent further spread, the NFL has postponed the Patriots game in Kansas City. Coincidentally as I wrote that sentence, the NFL announced the game has been rescheduled for Monday Night. I guess it’s not the worst thing to watch Patrick Mahomes on Monday Night again, but at the cost of Newton’s health it’s certainly not ideal.

I hate to pile on with bad news, but it’s now time to reveal our picks. As always, we are using the Vegas Consensus lines.

Last week

  • Lauren: 2-3
  • Scott: 4-1
  • Nolan: 4-1

Season

  • Lauren: 7-8
  • Scott: 7-8
  • Nolan: 10-4-1

Lauren’s Picks

Seattle -5.5 at Miami

New Orleans -3 at Detroit 

Arizona -3 at Carolina 

Chicago +3 at Indianapolis 

Kansas City -8 vs. New England (*BAL -14.5 at WAS)

Scott’s Picks

Seattle -5.5 at Miami 

Jacksonville +1.5 at Cincinnati 

New Orleans -3 at Detroit 

Dallas -4 vs. Cleveland 

Buffalo -3 at Las Vegas 

Nolan’s Picks

Tampa Bay -7 vs L.A. Chargers

This was the easiest pick of the week for me. The Chargers were already not very good; this week they’ll be without their two offseason additions on the offensive line this week in Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner. That is going to be a problem against the Buccaneers imposing pass rush. Justin Herbert has played pretty decent so far in his young career, but he’s going to look like a rookie this week.

I don’t know what this means but Tom Brady (age 43) is nearly twice Herbert’s age (22). I just thought that is something worth mentioning. I’m sure that won’t be mentioned on the television broadcast at all.

Seattle -5.5 at Miami

I know weird shit happens in Miami, but with the COVID restrictions all but eliminating Saturday night “extra-curricular activities”, I think the South Beach effect is neutralized somewhat. The Seahawks have a tendency to play down to their opponents in games like this, at least historically, but Miami’s has two fatal flaws: they can’t cover anyone and they can’t stop a pass rush. Seattle can really only kill Miami on one of those due to their nonexistent pass rush, but Russell Wilson’s connection with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf is absolutely lethal.

Baltimore -14.5 at Washington

The Ravens are coming off a demoralizing loss, so you can bet they’ll play angry this week. The poor Football Team stands no chance. I think Washington should keep the “Football Team” thing. It’s hilarious.

Buffalo -3 at Las Vegas

I fully planned to back the Steelers as slight road dogs against the Titans, but obviously that game won’t be happening this week. Instead, I’ll somewhat begrudgingly pivot to my own team. The Raiders are down their top three wide receivers (Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Tyrell Williams) which leaves Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller fending for their lives against the Bills secondary. Conversely, the Raiders mediocre defense likely means we see a Josh Allen performance this week.

San Francisco -8 vs. Philadelphia

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and injuries to the Eagles offense. DeSean Jackson and LT Jason Peters join the Eagles lengthy injury report. Honestly, if you took just the injured players from this game, you could probably construct a playoff team.

Despite all the injuries, the Niners have the better coach, weapons, offensive line, defense and dare I say quarterback. Kyle Shanahan drew up a masterful gameplan for Nick Mullens last week and we’ll see another one this week.

Answering Week 3’s Questions

Can the Eagles right the ship?

The answer is a resounding no. The Eagles team that won the Super Bowl just a few years ago has been falling apart at the seams and might have finally caved in.

Which 2-0 quarterback keeps it up?

Both Allen and Jared Goff played pretty well last week, but Allen’s last-minute drive secured the win (and avoided a blown 28-3 lead) for Buffalo. It’s hard to say any team really “lost” that game, though.

How do the 49ers make up for injuries?

Can Tom Brady get the Bucs offense humming?

The Bucs put up 28 points on the Broncos, but it wasn’t particularly impressive. Regardless, Tampa Bay keeps churning out wins and steadily rising the ranks among NFC contenders.

Who fully unleashes their offense: Pete Carroll or Mike McCarthy?

The Seahawks outlasted the Cowboys in a 38-31 thriller, punctuated by Wilson’s game-winning bomb to Metcalf. Like the Allen-Goff duel, there weren’t any losers in this one. Dallas still leads the NFC East, after all.

The real lesson here is that I need to write better questions.

Five Questions for Week 4

What the fuck is the NFL doing?

My number one question this week deals with the NFL’s handling of the COVID outbreaks this week. They clearly did not establish any protocols before the season. This “we’ll see how it goes” shit cannot happen. I can’t say I’m surprised considering it is Roger Goodell running the show, but good grief. Get it together, NFL.

Does Matt Nagy open up the offense for Nick Foles?

Nagy clearly dumbed-down the offense to try and compensate for Mitchell Trubisky’s ineptitude, so I’m interested to see if he’ll dial it back up with Foles starting. The Colts defense ranks highly in most metrics, but an extremely easy schedule likely inflated those numbers. This Colts-Bears game is sneakily one of the more fascinating games of the week.

(Related: I’m starting Jonathan Taylor in fantasy, so can the Bears please put up enough of a fight where he actually gets some second-half carries? Is that really too much to ask?)

Can the real Saints please stand up?

The Saints are another contender decimated by injuries. Michael Thomas, Jared Cook, Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins are all out for this week’s game against the pesky Lions, not to mention Drew Brees’ degenerative arm strength. The Lions have the receivers to make the New Orleans secondary look foolish; they also have the cornerbacks to make Brees look like Drew Brees again, even without Thomas and Cook.

This game reminds me of the Eagles game last year, coincidentally against the Lions. I said something along the lines of if the Eagles lose this one, I’m writing them off. They lost, but I didn’t write them off. I don’t know if the Saints will lose this one — they definitely could — but this feels like a game in which we try to draw conclusions, but in reality it’s just another game.

Is this the greatest game between 0-3 teams ever?

Thursday night’s hellscape between winless teams pales in comparison to Sunday’s showdown between the 0-3 Vikings and 0-3 Texans. After a gargantuan schedule (KC, BAL, PIT), Deshaun Watson should be unleashed by the Vikings abominable defense. (Related: I am starting Will Fuller in fantasy this week.) Likewise for Kirk Cousins against the lowly-Texans defense, however he can’t wait until garbage time to put up his stats. I am truly excited to watch this game.

How do the Falcons blow it this time?

Atlanta has blown games in which they held greater than a 98% win probability in consecutive weeks. The Falcons are breaking math. I cannot wait to see what they have in store for us this week.

Posted inFootball NFL NFL Picks
Tagsarizona cardinals Baltimore Ravens buffalo bills chicago bears dallas cowboys jacksonville jaguars kansas city chiefs new orleans saints san francisco 49ers seattle seahawks tampa bay buccaneers

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