NFL Week 5: Picks and Questions

Lauren, Scott and I typically make our picks on Saturday or Sunday morning. We live busy lives, ya know.

Last week was a lesson in why picking early in the week is often optimal, at least for me. I picked Baltimore -14.5. They won by just 14 points; however, the line opened at -12 or -12.5. If I had made my pick early in the week, I would have won. You could say I’m a little bitter.

Last week

• Lauren: 3-2
• Scott: 3-2
• Nolan: 2-2-1

Season

• Lauren: 10-10
• Scott: 10-10
• Nolan: 12-6-2

Lauren’s Picks

L.A. Rams -7 at Washington

Arizona -7.5 at NY Jets

Pittsburgh -7 vs. Philadelphia 

Cincinnati +12 at Baltimore 

San Francisco -8 vs. Miami

Scott’s Picks

Before I get to my picks, I just want to say a few words about the Titans situation. And I’m going to sound like a real homer here, but I like to think I would feel the same way regardless of what team was involved.

First, it’s apparent that the Titans didn’t completely follow protocol and they should be held accountable in some capacity. But this was never really going to work, was it? It’s fairly obvious that the NFL is flying by the seat of their pants. Of course, this is uncharted territory for everyone, and we are all figuring it out as we go.

Nonetheless, I can’t help but feel like the NFL should take a little bit more responsibility here. They put in some mostly half-baked protocols and essentially allowed every team to operate business as usual, with the exception of no fans being allowed at stadiums. They had to know this was going to happen, and I think it should have been a little clearer what the expectation was for teams that were impacted by COVID. Maybe I’m wrong, but it just doesn’t seem like the league had laid out a clear, consistent plan for dealing with this.

It was never more apparent that the NFL really has no clue how to handle this than with the Patriots-Chiefs game, which was executed in stark contrast to how the league handled the Titans-Steelers game. Cam Freaking Newton tested positive two days before the scheduled Sunday game and they opted to press on and play on Monday. And then Stephone Gilmore tested positive. That put every player on that field at risk, including the reigning MVP of the league. Nothing more has come of that up to this point, and maybe that is because the Pats took greater strides to contain the infection than the Titans. But there is also a part of me that thinks it is just blind luck.

I think everyone expected that something like this would happen at some point or another. I know I did. And I can live with the fact that this happened to my beloved Titans during a season that they are 3-0 for the first time in over two decades. But I can’t live with the fact that the NFL is floating “historic punishments”.

I understand there has to be some accountability, but the idea that the NFL would level potentially franchise-altering punishments because the Titans didn’t do enough to contain a COVID outbreak is preposterous to me. How could one franchise be expected to do what the federal government has not, or has outright refused to do, which is take every measure necessary to prevent the spread of a highly-contagious virus? Why should they face consequences that our national leaders never will?  

Yes, the Titans should have done more. Yes, they should be punished. But let’s be reasonable here and not do something that will alter the course of a franchise that has steadily built itself into a contender for failing to contain a virus that has infected over 7 million people and killed over 200,000 in the US alone. This has been the most difficult year of my lifetime, and I’m sure most people would say the same. If 2020 has taught us anything it has taught us that we all deserve a little bit more forgiveness and understanding. I hope that the NFL feels the same.

L.A. Rams -7 at Washington

Since pulling out that come-from-behind win over the Eagles, who we now know are bad, the Washington Football Club has been thoroughly handled in its last three games. Dwayne Haskins is obviously not the answer. The Rams, meanwhile, are rolling along at 3-1, though they are not the same team we saw in the Super Bowl. I know the West Coast team traveling to the East Coast is real, but I feel good about the Rams in this one.

Arizona -7.5 at N.Y. Jets

This feels like a lot of points to give this Cardinals team traveling to the East Coast, but they are playing a Jets squad that remains an absolute abomination. If nothing else, I can hold my head high knowing I bet against Adam Gase.

Atlanta -1 vs. Carolina

Atlanta should be 2-2. It seems that the Super Bowl collapse has had long-term implications on the Falcons franchise, but it has to turn around at some point this season, right? I’ll roll the dice on it happening this week. The Falcons have played a pretty tough schedule with games against the Seahawks and Packers, the two best teams in the NFC in my estimation, and the 4-1 Bears. This feels like a stupid pick, but I’m going with my gut and hoping that the Falcons show a little bit of pride.

Cleveland +1 vs. Indianapolis

I’m going against my better judgement and all logic, which tells you to never bet on the Browns. However, Cleveland is suddenly on a roll and has scored 30-plus points in all three games of its three-game winning streak. Indy might just have an elite defense, but I’ll stop short of saying that until I see them play against an offense that we know is capable of putting up points. That is not the Jets and Bears. I’m also just hoping to see the Colts lose because I need some happiness in my NFL fandom these days.

Houston -5.5 vs. Jacksonville

Don’t worry, Houston fans. Bill O’Brien can’t hurt you anymore. And I think this is the week the Texans get off the snide. The Jags are at least a little bit frisky, but I have faith that Deshaun Watson will ultimately turn this ship around. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston play with a little bit more freedom this week. It was pretty apparent how much O’Brien held that franchise back with his heavy-handed style of leadership. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we start hearing some crazy stories about what was happening inside that organization with Bill O’Brien leading the charge. 

Nolan’s Picks

L.A. Rams -7 at Washington

The Football Team is starting Kyle Allen at quarterback. He’s not good, guys. The Rams slogged out a win against the Giants last week as heavy favorites, which is why I feel like I’m getting some value on this line.

Arizona -7.5 at N.Y. Jets

The Cardinals have not been playing well of late, as I noted in Week 4’s Scripted 15. However, this week they face Adam Gase’s Jets with Joe Flacco starting at quarterback. I’m legally required to pick against the Jets in this scenario.

Pittsburgh -7 vs. Philadelphia

The Steelers have the best pass rush in the NFL, by a mile. The Eagles offensive line sucks. The Steelers are coming off a mini-bye. The Eagles played on Sunday night. The Eagles have Carson Wentz.

Dallas -8.5 vs N.Y. Giants

The Jason Garrett revenge game! And by “revenge” I mean Dak Prescott and co. walking up and down the field proving to Garrett how easy it is to score points when you aren’t a washed-up has been stuck in the 1990’s.I know the Cowboys defense sucks, but so does Daniel Jones. Plus, Garrett will probably be calling the same plays as when he was in Dallas, so the defense probably knows all the signals.

Buffalo -1 at Tennessee (*Carolina +1 at Atlanta)

The Bills are among the hottest teams in football and REDACTED is playing like an MVP candidate. The Titans eeked out a 3-0 record before the whole COVID-19 extravaganza. Uh, give me the team that knows what the fuck they’re doing. Also, I have to back my own team against Lauren and Scott’s.

Answering Week 4’s Questions

What the fuck is the NFL doing?

The stories coming out of Nashville only get worse for the Titans and their disregard for protocol. The Bills-Titans game has been moved to Tuesday (pending whether or not Tennessee gets their shit together).

I still don’t know why the Patriots were allowed to play last week. Considering the incubation period of COVID-19, that decision made no sense.

Honestly, I can’t try and rationalize NFL’s actions on this stuff anymore. They don’t care about the players’ health and safety. That’s a fact.

Does Matt Nagy open up the offense for Nick Foles?

Well, if he did, it didn’t work against the Colts last Sunday.

However, Foles looked better against the Bucs on Thursday night, aside from a one brutal throw when he missed Darnell Mooney running by himself.

On the game-winning drive, Foles orchestrated a masterpiece. Emmanuel Acho broke down one play in particular that proves why Foles is the right man for this offense. (I’d argue Cam Newton should be, but I digress.)

Can the real Saints please stand up?

Aha! The real Drew Brees returned against the Lions. Hopefully he sticks around when the Saints, you know, aren’t playing the Lions.

Is this the greatest game between 0-3 teams ever?

Narratore: It was not.

The Texans aren’t some historically great 0-3 team; they’re just bad. I’m cautiously optimistic the Vikings might be closer to an 8-8 team than their record indicates, but this was no matchup between world-beaters by any stretch.

How do the Falcons blow it this time?

Aaron Rodgers when targeting RBs & TEs vs. Atlanta:

🎯 20-20
🎯 241 YDS
🎯 4 TD

No WRs, no problem 🤷‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/Y8on9RWBwg

— PFF (@PFF) October 6, 2020

Five Questions for Week 5

How does the time off affect the Titans?

The Titans merely playing this week against the Bills is a big enough question itself. Assuming the games is played — which is a big “if” — the Titans haven’t “officially” practiced in almost two weeks. They’re scheduled to face the Bills on Tuesday and will presumably be down several starters due to COVID-19 positives. That should give the Bills a huge advantage, but for some reason I have concerns.

Which 3-1 team is for real?

I don’t mean to presume that the loser of Colts-Browns is a fraud or anything. I’m just fascinated by these 3-1 teams. The Browns and Colts have elite offensive lines, but their quarterbacks haven’t been tested yet. The Colts defense ranks as elite, but also hasn’t faced significant competition yet. This game could have huge ramifications for AFC playoff seeding, so this is much more than a “who’s for real” game.

Does Carson Wentz survive facing the Steelers pass rush?

I mean this in the literal sense of “survive”. Say what you will about Wentz, but he’s not afraid to stand in the pocket and take some hits. Enter T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree and Stephon Tuitt. The Eagles offensive line is decimated. They have no receivers who can get open. This could be ugly.

Most QB pressures in 2 seconds or less:

1. Joey Bosa, Chargers – 11
2. T.J. Watt, Steelers – 10
3. Bud Dupree, Steelers – 8
3. Stephon Tuitt, Steelers – 8 pic.twitter.com/gCjyLCrA9x

— PFF (@PFF) October 9, 2020

Can Backdoor Burrow’s conquer his next challenge?

Joe Burrow has exceeded all expectations through his first month in the NFL, becoming the first rookie to tally three consecutive 300-yard games. This week, he’ll square off with the gritty Ravens defense. Baltimore loves to blitz, but Cincy has receivers who can get open quickly. Will Burrow read and react or will the Baltimore pressure cloud his vision?

Which Kirk Cousins do we see on Sunday Night?

The Seahawks are starting to Let Russ Cook^TM and should have a field day against the Vikings porous defense. However, the Seahawks defense is also vulnerable. The Vikings have two receivers — that’s it, just two — who can beat Seattle’s turnstile cornerbacks, but Mike Zimmer loves to establish the run. Cousins infamously struggles on primetime national television; the cards are aligned in his favor. (I’m personally curious because I’m starting Justin Jefferson in fantasy.)