The NBA offseason began with a bang as the Pistons traded Bruce Brown to the Nets for Dzanan Musa and a 2021 second-round pick per Adrian Wojnarowski.
I mean, technically that was the first transaction of the offseason.
Obviously, the real jaw-dropper of the day was Oklahoma City trading future Hall-of-Famer Chris Paul to the Phoenix Suns. The full details are as follows:
With all due respect to Dennis Schröder and Danny Green, this is the first major trade of the offseason. Paul’s tenure in Oklahoma City was always temporary and Sam Presti is too good at his job to allow a sell-high window to close without capitalizing. Add in the aggressive nature of the modern NBA, and it was inevitable Paul was going to be dealt, even in this brief offseason.
The only question was who would acquire him. Despite coming off a stellar 2019-20 campaign, there was not a large market for Paul. At 35 years old, Paul is no spring chicken. His gargantuan contact — $41.4 million in 2020-21 and $44.2 million in 2021-22 — was the other impetus in trading for the point guard. The overlap on the Venn diagram between teams that could fit Paul’s contract under the salary cap and could actually use a 35-year-old point guard is quite small.
The Suns fit the bill. I personally wanted to see Chris Paul on an immediate championship contender, especially Philadelphia or Milwaukee. However, I am very much intrigued by the possibilities of CP3 in Phoenix.
Outlook for Phoenix
In fact, I think I love this trade for the Suns. They massively upgraded at point guard, really at the cost of just a protected first-rounder and Kelly Oubre. Losing a young talented wing like Oubre hurts, but Phoenix still has Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and the tenth pick on Wednesday’s draft. Plus, Oubre didn’t even play in the bubble due to a knee injury, so we already know the Suns can win games without him.
In a way, Phoenix took the 8-0 Bubble Suns and swapped Ricky Rubio for Chris fucking Paul. You make that deal one hundred times out of a hundred.
With that said, Phoenix is betting that the Bubble Suns were not Icarus flying to close to, well, the sun. They believe Paul can elevate them into the second tier of Western Conference teams with the Nuggets, but behind the Lakers, Warriors and Clippers. (Although, who knows what the Warriors and Clippers look like in a month.)
I would tend to agree with Phoenix’s thought process. Their play in the bubble didn’t feel like a fluke and with the Thunder and (presumably) Rockets taking a step backwards, that window is open.
The Suns almost certainly aren’t championship contenders as currently constructed. They don’t have a truly elite player to go toe-to-toe with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic or Kawhi Leonard. But I don’t think it’s out of the question they can develop into one.
If Devin Booker’s play in the bubble — 30.5 points, 6.0 assists, 4.9 rebounds per game — is a harbinger of things to come, he could emerge as a top ten to fifteen player in a hurry. Booker’s bubble performance surely ended the Good Stats/Bad Team vs. Franchise Player debate and he’ll only be entering his age-24 season. His ceiling hasn’t even been scratched yet.
DeAndre Ayton definitely should not have been the number one pick in the 2018 draft; however, he is developing into a high-caliber center. He averaged 18.2 points and 11.5 rebounds as a 21-year-old last season and is slowly developing into a legitimately feared rim protector.
With Ayton is where the addition of Paul will pay dividends. The history of the NBA says that the best thing you can do for a big-man is to find him an elite point guard — similar to how the best thing for a young quarterback is get him a star wide receiver. Enter the Point God.
Paul is without question one of the two smartest players in the league. He’ll unlock all of the best attributes of Ayton’s blossoming offensive game. Paul will also, shall we say, challenge Ayton in a way he’s never been before. It hypothetically could turn into a Jimmy Butler/Karl Anthony-Towns situation, but it could be just the kick in the ass Ayton needs to become the NBA’s next elite center.
There is a world in which Booker burgeons into a super star while leading the league in scoring, and Ayton develops into an All-Star this year. In that scenario, Phoenix would enter the 2021-22 season with Paul as their third-best player. Instead of Paul driving the ship, he could slide into a super-charged version of the role Rajon Rondo played alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis as the crafty floor general who exists only to elevate his star teammates. Now that team would be a championship contender.
Honestly, I’m struggling to find the downside here. I’ve been doing this a lot lately, and it often backfires, but hear me out. The worst case scenario is that the Bubble Suns were a mirage; Phoenix fails to take the leap into the Western Conference playoffs and Booker demands a trade within 18 months or so. But isn’t that where Phoenix was heading anyway?
The only difference is that this leaves the Suns on the books for Paul’s $44.2 million contract in 2021-22, when he’ll be 36 years old and possibly a shell of his current self. That sounds like a problem for Robert Sarver’s checkbook, because it’s not like Phoenix was going to sign Giannis or anything.
My only gripe is that the timing of the official transaction messes with the Suns’ cap flexibility, as noted by The Athletic’s John Hollinger. Regardless, I’m hopping aboard the Valley Boys hype train.
Outlook for Oklahoma City
You have to take zoom out in order to properly evaluate this trade for the Thunder, because this transcation was really step two of at least a three-step plan.
Last offseason, they traded Russell Westbrook to Houston for Paul, two future first-round picks and two pick swaps. Based solely on that transaction, Oklahoma City downgraded at point guard in exchange for future draft capital.
Well… the Thunder finished with the same record as the Rockets and came within one play of eliminating them in the playoffs. (I’m still not over the Thunder wasting a 30-point Game 7 performance from Lou Dort.)
This offseason, OKC flipped Paul to Phoenix while adding another first-rounder to their collection. They also get a stop-gap point guard in Rubio, the talented wing they’ve desperately needed for years in Oubre, and some young players with limited, but untapped potential. This is nothing short of pure brilliance, a perfect execution of buying low and selling high — I can only dream of such ingenuity as a fantasy football GM.
Oklahoma City now owns sixteen first-round picks over the next seven years. That’s nearly impossible to accumulate on NBA2K. (I say “nearly” because I’ve had some pretty masterful tenures as a MyGM over the years, if I do say so myself.)
This is the blueprint for rebuilding in the NBA. Most teams — looking with intense respect at you, Sam Hinki and the 76ers — need to actively tank to accumulate a collection of draft capital that merely resembles Oklahoma City’s. The Thunder never missed the playoffs.
Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Acquiring assets is just half the battle. Over the next few years, Presti has to turn this plethora of draft picks and young players into multiple superstars in order to return to championship contention.
It goes without saying, but Oklahoma City can’t actually use all sixteen of those draft picks. They have to condense them in some form, whether that means moving up in the draft or trading for a future disgruntled star (or two). That’s a bridge to cross at a later date, but it bears mentioning.
On that note, Presti should learn from Danny Ainge’s hesitancy in Boston. In recent years, Ainge whiffed on opportunities to acquire Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard and, to a lesser extent, Anthony Davis. Ainge overvalued Boston’s treasure trove of future draft picks, which led to the Celtics hoarding depreciating assets. The Kings 2019 first-rounder and Grizzlies 2020 first-rounder, once considered golden-tickets, disintegrated from potential top-five picks into the bottom of the lottery. Boston could’ve won the title in 2019 and/or 2020 if they had been more aggressive.
Again, this “problem” is delegated for the 2022-and-beyond Thunder. Presti should be, and likely already is, planning far ahead. He’s probably already got a deal for Karl Anthony-Towns in 2021 and Trae Young in 2023 lined up in his head.
Overall
It’s hard to see this trade as anything other than a win-win at this moment. Phoenix gets the third piece that they need to become playoff contenders. The Thunder add more assets and can embrace their rebuilding process around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Chris Paul gets to be closer to his family in Los Angeles and become the leader for two hungry young stars. Presti gears up to replicate Oklahoma City’s drafts from 2007-2010. Booker gets another fella to join him at Hooters.
Everybody’s happy. Well, except Rubio and Oubre.