My Quarterback Tier Rankings

In the aftermath of Andrew Luck’s retirement, I’ve been thinking about the current state of quarterbacks. On the one hand, Luck’s retirement shows Super Bowl windows are never open as long as you’d want. On the other hand, Tom Brady and Drew Brees have kept their franchises in contention for nearly half a decade longer than we thought possible.

I decided to group every starting quarterback (and a few notable backups) into tiers. Then, I ranked the tiers. My rankings reflect not only this upcoming season, but the future as well.

Keep in mind, I am ranking the tiers specifically, not the individual quarterbacks. Obviously, I do not think Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than Tom Brady. However, I would rather have a very good quarterback in the prime of their career than a great one nearing the end.

Think of it like this: sure, Brady and the Pats might very well win another Super Bowl in the next two-three years. Actually, let’s ignore Brady – the Patriots’ success is too much of an outlier. Let’s take Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger, who are in the same tier as Brady. Again, there’s a chance the Saints or Steelers win a Super Bowl in the near future, but what happens after that? I’d rather take a several extra years of contention (or perhaps the illusion of contention).

As a Bills fan, I’ve only ever known mediocrity at best; I’d kill for a ceiling of annual playoff contention. Chargers and Cowboys fans — who have been constantly teased with Super Bowl contention — would probably take two years of true Super Bowl contention and five years of rebuilding. It’s all a matter of preference and risk management.

Tier 1: The Future is Now

Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz

A great quarterback on a rookie-scale (or cheap) contract is the single most valuable asset in all of professional sports. Mahomes just won the league MVP in his second NFL season (his first as a starter), while Wentz nearly did the same in 2017. In 2018, Watson overcame the Texans’ shortcomings on the offensive line while leading Houston to the postseason. Mayfield captivated the entire city of Cleveland, filling a LeBron-sized hole in the hearts of Cleveland sports fans. He led the Browns — the Cleveland Browns — to a 7-7 record in the 14 games he played last season. (Need I remind you, the Browns hadn’t won a game in nearly two seasons before Mayfield arrived.)

If your team has one of these quarterbacks, congratulations. Also, I hate you.

Tier 2: The Peak of their Powers

Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins

If the best value in football is a great quarterback on a cheap contract, the next best thing is a great quarterback on a healthy contract. Building a talented roster around a well-paid quarterback is more complicated, but the Chris Ballard-era Colts have proved it’s more than possible. Before his abrupt retirement, Andrew Luck would have been atop this tier with Wilson.

If your quarterback is in this tier, your team always has a chance to win.

Tier 3: Wiser with Age

Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers

All of these guys remain very good to elite quarterbacks. After all, Brady just won the Super Bowl and Brees should have played against him. Rivers and Roethlisberger will likely fall off faster than Brady and Brees, but they remain excellent starting quarterbacks capable of deep playoff runs.

If your a fan of one of these teams, enjoy the ride while it lasts. The music will stop playing very soon and there probably won’t be any chairs left.

Tier 4: So far, So good

Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold

It’s weird to say the quarterback of the defending NFC champions is still proving himself, but I’m just not yet convinced. Perhaps the most interesting hypothetical NFL question is how many quarterbacks could replicate what Goff did in McVay’s scheme last season. 10? 12? 20?

Darnold has the opportunity to elevate himself into the “Young Studs” tier this season, but the Jets’ roster may be a year or two away. Let the records show I am an early stockholder in Darnold. (I also picked the Jets to be surprise playoff contenders in my over/under win total predictions.)

I’m not sure what to make of Prescott yet. He was electric in 2016, but in absolute best possible situation. Personally, I think he has that “it” factor that a face of the franchise quarterback needs. If new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore develops an innovative, or at least modern, scheme for Prescott, he will absolutely be worth a $30+ million annual contract.

If you’re a fan of one of these teams, I’d bet you feel pretty good about your team. I’d also bet you feel a sense of uneasiness in the back of your mind. (If you’re a Jets fan, that’s probably a symptom of also being a Mets fan.)

Tier 5: Now or Never

Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Foles

Winston and Mariota enter the pivotal fifth season of their careers, with tens (potentially hundreds) of millions of dollars on the line. The 49ers can move on from Garoppolo after this season at virtually no cost. Brissett has the opportunity to prove he can be the new face of Indianapolis football. Foles will either re-establish the Jaguars as AFC contenders or they’ll return to their rightful place in the top 5 of the draft.

These fans are acutely aware of the importance of the 2019 season and undoubtedly feel a sense of urgency, Colts fans especially.

Tier 7: Schrodinger’s Cat

Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones

If you don’t understand the Schrodinger’s Cat reference, allow the one and only Sheldon Cooper to explain in this scene from the Big Bang Theory.

We can’t truly know anything about these players until they have a handful of regular season starts under their belts, so we can choose to believe whatever our hearts desire. After a post-draft day depression, Giants’ fans have probably talked themselves into Daniel Jones as the next Joe Montana. Cardinals’ fans expect Murray to replicate Kliff Kingsbury’s Texas Tech offense at the NFL level. I’m not sure what Redskins fans think of Haskins – I think Dan Snyder has destroyed their souls beyond repair at this point – but he at least represents something that quarterbacks in the following tiers do not: hope.

Cardinals fans will soon discover that their young quarterback is a dynamo. Redskins and especially Giants fans, enjoy the quickly dwindling honeymoon period while it lasts. I’m afraid you’ll soon be disappointed.

Tier 6: Young, Dumb and possibly Broken

Mitchell Trubisky, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen

The theme of this tier is unanswered questions. Are we sure Trubisky isn’t a lower grade reincarnation of Alex Smith? Can Lamar Jackson throw a football? (I actually was encouraged by Jackson’s play last season, but it’s a fair question at this point.) Is Josh Allen a poor man’s Cam Newton or should be pursue a new career as a professional fetch thrower? Is Josh Rosen still the prodigy we (I) fell in love with at UCLA or has he fallen victim to the poorest of circumstances?

Tier 8: The Purgatory of Mediocrity

Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco

These guys aren’t necessarily bad – except Flacco, who sucks – but they aren’t particularly good either. Surrounded by proper circumstances, they’ve all led playoff teams. (Flacco’s 2012-13 Super Bowl run remains one of the strangest anomalies of the decade.) Anything less and your team is destined for exactly 5 to 7 wins – the purgatory of mediocrity. 

Fans should never, ever root for a player to get injured…. buuuut these fans know in the back of their minds that they are one torn ACL from Tua Tagovailoa or Trevor Lawrence (in 2021).

Tier 9: Lame Ducks

Eli Manning, Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick

I only include these guys because they technically are still starting quarterbacks. These guys are old. These guys stink at football. Young quarterbacks with at least a minuscule of promise are trapped behind them on the depth chart. The only reason these corpses remain atop the depth chart is because the owner is unable to move on or the coaching staff is fighting for their jobs.

I’ve been over this. I do not envy Giants or Redskins fans in the slightest. At least the Dolphins are supposedly trying to tank, which would give me some hope for the 2020’s — and isn’t that the whole point here?