Oct 21 2020
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Tua Tagovailoa, the third of 2020’s first-round quarterback class, has been named the Dolphins starting quarterback. One benefit of my procrastination in writing this week’s Scripted 15 — don’t worry, it’s coming — is that I get to discuss the Dolphins’ decision to bench cult hero/veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick in favor of the rookie Tagovailoa.

On a surface level, the timing is rather odd. The Dolphins have won two straight games and Fitzpatrick has played very well. They are only a single game back of the Bills for the division lead. Why make such a drastic change when the status quo is working?

That is quite a loaded question. First, let’s take a step back at when the first-round quarterbacks from the past four draft classes made their debuts. They almost all fit into one of three categories:

  • They started from Day 1: Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow
  • The starter got hurt: Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert
  • The team and/or starter was so bad that the team had no other choice: Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins

There are a couple anomalies. Patrick Mahomes, the exception to every rule, didn’t start until Week 17 because the Chiefs were really good and Jordan Love has yet to start.

The other is Lamar Jackson. His situation was just as fascinating at the time and is the most comparable to Tagovailoa’s.

In 2018, Baltimore entered their Week 10 bye at 5-5. They had lost three straight games, so the Ravens turned to their former Heisman trophy winning, 32nd overall selection. Admittedly, an injury to Joe Flacco was technically part of the decision; however, the severity of Flacco’s hip injury was ambiguous when Baltimore made the change. (Flacco was injured on the first series of their Week 9 game, but didn’t miss a snap.) It seems probable, or at least possible, that Baltimore was looking for an excuse to throw Jackson into the lineup. Flacco’s hip plus a fortuitous bye week created the perfect window.

The decision paid massive dividends immediately. Baltimore won six of their final seven games and stole the AFC North title. Their only loss during that stretch came in overtime at the hands of Mahomes’ Chiefs. (That was the game when Mahomes completed the iconic no-look throw and a ludicrous, game-saving 4th-and-9 conversion to Tyreek Hill.)

That is the short-term upside Miami is chasing by promoting Tagovailoa.

Now let’s compare Baltimore’s situation in 2018 to Miami’s today. The Dolphins are .500 entering their bye week, just like the Ravens. The difference is Miami trails the Bills by just one game for the AFC East lead, while the Ravens trailed Pittsburgh by two and a half games (and just beat Baltimore in Week 9). That distinction is important for two reasons:

  1. One game in Week 7 is much different than two and a half games in Week 10. Baltimore had less to lose from a single-season perspective.
  2. The Patriots are not the invincible force that they have been for nearly twenty years. The AFC East title is truly up for grabs for the first time since 2008. (Anecdotally, that was when the Dolphins debuted the Wildcat offense and stole the division title after Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1.)

The most important difference between the 2018 Ravens and 2020 Dolphins is the veteran incumbent. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an ailing Joe Flacco. In fact, Fitzpatrick is playing genuinely well; he’s seventh in the NFL in Total QBR. Seventh! I won’t waste my time looking up Flacco’s statistics as I feel safe saying that he sucked.

One final distinction is that Tagovailoa is only eleven months removed from that horrific hip injury that almost cost him his career. Jackson was perfectly healthy.

In summation, the Dolphins are benching arguably a top-ten quarterback for a rookie who is less than a year removed from a devastating injury.

What? Why? If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Simply put: That’s a losing mentality.

The Chiefs did not have a losing mentality with Alex Smith in 2017. Kansas City traded up for Mahomes after Smith played well in 2016, then traded Smith after another Pro Bowl season in 2017. We all know how that worked out.

The Toronto Raptors did not have a losing mentality in 2019. LeBron James finally left the Eastern Conference, potentially opening the door for Toronto to make a Finals run. But they didn’t settle. They traded their franchise player, DeMar DeRozan, for Kawhi Leonard. Let’s not forget Leonard’s reputation at the time, which eerily resembles Tagovailoa’s now. Both had won championships in recent years, but their last memory involved a debilitating injury and little to no in-game experience over nearly 12 months. Again, we know how that worked out.

Perhaps my favorite: Alabama did not have a losing mentality in the 2018 National Championship. They benched starter Jalen Hurts at halftime for Tagovailoa himself, who rallied the Crimson Tide offense to a national title.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Calm down. I’m not saying the Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl. The 2017 Chiefs were legit Super Bowl contenders with Smith at quarterback; the 2020 Dolphins are obviously not.

I am saying that there is nothing to gain with Fitzpatrick as the starter. The satisfaction of a fun, but fluky division title with Fitzpatrick does not outweigh the uncertainty of entering 2021 with zero clarification on Tagovailoa’s NFL capabilities. It’s chasing instant gratification at the cost of long-term success. With Tagovailoa under center, there is everything to gain.

Wait — if there is nothing to gain from Fitzpatrick starting, then why didn’t Miami just start Tagovailoa in Week 1? If Tagovailoa was 100% healthy, there is something to that. But there are benefits to letting Tagovailoa learn for a few weeks behind a veteran starter. Giving Tagovailoa time to fully absorb the playbook and adjust to the speed of the NFL has value.

However, there are diminishing returns involved with that plan. Eventually, the only way for Tagovailoa to learn is by getting thrown into the fire. Joe Burrow wasn’t going to learn how to not get destroyed by NFL pass rushers without facing NFL pass rushers.

If the Dolphins were to start Tagovailoa at any point during the season, the single best opportunity to do so is during the bye week. Therefore, on a macro-level, this is the single-best time to make the move. (It should be noted that the Dolphins bye week was moved up from Week 11 in the aftermath of the Broncos-Patriots COVID-19 rescheduling debacle. Whatever Brian Flores’ potential plans were for Tagovailoa, they were accelerated by four weeks.)

Additionally, we all know how the Fitzpatrick story plays out: he plays exceptional football for some brief period of time, sometimes longer than others, but eventually, inevitably he fizzles out. The Dolphins kinda/sorta/almost beat the Seahawks in Week 4 and upset the 49ers in San Francisco two weeks ago — they already got the best of Fitzpatrick. Quitting while your ahead is often a sign of strength, not weakness.

The final piece of the puzzle in regards to the timing of the Dolphins’ quarterback change couldn’t be farther from South Florida. Fellow rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has played rather well since being unexpectedly thrust into action in Week 2.

That matters. Herbert was selected just one pick after Tagovailoa in the draft. There’s no way the Dolphins, and more importantly, Dolphins’ owner Stephen Ross haven’t noticed. On some level, Miami has to be thinking one (or both) of:

  1. “Herbert looks this good in a weird COVID-19 offseason and with zero first-team reps. Tagovailoa is better than him, so imagine how good Tagovailoa could be playing.” Or
  2. “Wow, Herbert is playing really good. Oh god, did we make a mistake? We have to find out.”

Now, I obviously don’t know how much that matters, but it’s human nature for the Miami organization to feel some type of way about Herbert’s promising play.

I think I’ve psychoanalyzed the method behind the madness of the decision enough. That’s how we got here. So what’s next?

The way I see it, there are a few ways the Dolphins season could play out:

  1. Tagovailoa is awesome and Miami storms into the playoff race. (Like the Ravens in 2018.)
  2. Tagovailoa proves promising, but the Dolphins aren’t quite ready to win yet. Miami has faith that they have their quarterback and they have a better draft pick to build around him. (Like the Bengals and Chargers in 2020.)
  3. Tagovailoa re-injures his hip or flat out stinks, and Miami knows they probably need to draft a new quarterback. With their draft capital, they’ll be in position to do so. (Like the 2019 Cardinals.)

Am I missing something? What’s the downside here?

Theoretically, the downside is that the Dolphins porous offensive line affects Tagovailoa’s psyche. If Tagovailoa starts seeing ghosts, it could permanently destroy his confidence. Darnold, of course, Mayfield and Rosen are prime examples being “broken” by a terrible supporting cast.

But, as always, there is nuance here. The Dolphins under Flores are very much not the 2018 Cardinals under Steve Wilks or the present Jets under Adam Gase. Flores appears to be a very good head coach. Even in the worst-case scenario in which Tagovailoa needs to be replaced, Miami’s developing locker room culture would be intact.

In the event Tagovailoa is permanently damaged by a bad offensive line or lingering effects of the hip injury, Miami can replace him as quickly as next year’s draft. They have their own first-rounder (which would likely be rather high in this scenario) plus Houston’s (thanks, Bill O’Brien) to go get Trey Lance or Justin Fields or whoever they want. (Mac Jones would be a hilarious choice.) This is exactly how the Cardinals got Kyler Murray and how the Jets presumably end up with Trevor Lawrence. The path to a franchise quarterback doesn’t have to be linear or pretty.

I will admit that if making the playoffs in 2020 was the goal, then there is considerable downside to benching Fitzpatrick. But since when is merely making the playoffs the goal? If it were, we’d consider Andy Dalton’s Bengals a legit dynasty.

Starting Tagovailoa gives Miami a chance to contend now, while giving them an even better chance to contend in 2021 and beyond. The 2018 Ravens were in the perfect scenario to airdrop a rookie quarterback into the midst of a playoff race. Miami has a similar opportunity right now and they are taking advantage of it. The Dolphins, much like this website, can’t lose.

Posted inFeatured Football NFL
TagsBaltimore Ravens lamar jackson miami dolphins ryan fitzpatrick tua tagovailoa

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