The Week 2 Scripted 15

I know, I know. It’s already Wednesday. We’re already closer to Week 3 than Week 2. Well almost.

I have some bad news for you all. I have been self-diagnosed with a crippling condition that will likely prevent me from getting this article out before Tuesday evenings on most weeks.

I am now one of the countless victims of “senioritis”. My body will not allow me to start doing homework until there is less than six hours before it is due. That forces me to stay up late on Sunday nights, often missing Sunday Night Football, and leaves me exhausted on Monday afternoons. There are ways to manage the pain, such as caffeine and nap-time, but all too often I find myself incapable of working on this article’s work until Tuesday. Hopefully, one day, there will be a cure for this miserable, debilitating disease.

Sarcasm aside, here is this week’s Scripted 15. Basically, it’s a cliche football-related title that allows me to talk freely about fifteen different topics from around the league each week. I did this for the first half of last season, before I caught a case of “lazy piece of shit” disease, which has many of the same side effects as senioritis.

1) The Josh/Jaheim Scale

The NFL leader in passing yards and ESPN’s EPA is…. Josh Allen?

You all know how I feel about the Bills “franchise” quarterback. I think it’s time for me to remove the air quotes. Look, I’m still not convinced Allen is the guy that will lead us to a Super Bowl victory — that is the ultimate goal of a franchise quarterback after all. However, my pipe dreams of Buffalo moving on from Allen and chasing a veteran like Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton next offseason are dead. Allen is the guy in Buffalo for the foreseeable future, for better or worse.

It is worth mentioning that Buffalo’s two opponents thus far are the Jets and Dolphins, two of the five worst teams in football. So it’s unclear how to delineate credit between abhorrent defensive play and genuinely good QB play. However, Allen’s previous career high in passing yards was just 266 before throwing for 312 and 417 in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively. That has to mean something.

Now that we’ve seen Allen truly dominate on an NFL level — believe it or not, the Jets are an NFL team — it’s time to see what he can do against real NFL teams. The Bills next four games are against currently undefeated teams: the Rams, Raiders, Titans and Chiefs. None of those defenses are particularly intimidating, but those offenses can put up points in a hurry. The question is: Can Allen keep up?

I feel like you guys enjoy when I dive into my emotions about Allen, so I think this is just gonna have to be a weekly thing.

2. CaMVP

Superman has officially returned. Newton showcased his red-zone rushing brilliance in Week 1, but this week he turned back the clock with in one of his best performances through the air of his career. While throwing for nearly 400 yards, Newton completed fifteen passes at least ten yards downfield last week, the most in the NFL. You have to factor in how poor Miami and Seattle’s defense appear to be, but this is a level of play only a few people thought Newton had in him, myself included.

I’ve seen a lot of people harping on New England’s final play call on the one yard line that cost them the game. (Where have we heard that one before?) I don’t understand the criticism.

Do people not realize Newton has scored three times on rushes inside the five already this season? In fact, I dare say a Newton rush from the one-yard line is probably more effective than a Marshawn Lynch run! You can’t be mad at Seattle for getting cute in 2014 and also be mad at New England’s play call on Sunday. The Patriots ran their best play, one that Seattle proved incapable of stopping before that moment. You have to trust your best players in those situations. Personally, I might’ve like to see at least one dude running a route just in case, but I’m not gonna get upset about a power run on the goal-line with Cam fucking Newton.

Some of the QBs who signed deals for more guaranteed money than Cam Newton this offseason:

Andy Dalton
Blaine Gabbert
Brett Hundley
Colt McCoy
Jeff Driskel
Chase Daniel
Marcus Mariota
Case Keenum
A.J. McCarron
Chad Henne
Matt Schaub
Matt Barkley
NATHAN PETERMAN

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 21, 2020

I hope this isn’t something I bring up every week Newton balls out, but it might have to be. This list is nothing but evidence of blatant racism. You cannot justify any other position. I don’t care that Newton hadn’t been fully healthy in 18 months. His ceiling, which we all saw loud and clear on Sunday night, is infinitely higher than any of those quarterbacks could dream. I can understand the rationale for Marcus Mariota and Andy Dalton as high-quality backups, but the rest are fucking blasphemous.

You wanna play the “Cam only wanted to sign where he could start game?” Okay. The Bears chose Nick Foles over Newton and gave up a 4th rounder to do so. The Colts chose Phillip Rivers at $25 million over Newton. The Chargers chose Justin Herbert and Tyrod Taylor over Newton — Newton is literally the best of both of those guys. The same argument applies to Jameis Winston, who took the league minimum to be a backup.

The NFL can put “End Racism” in size 12, Times New Roman font on every end-zone, but until they truly solve this problem, they’ll be nothing but a cash-grabbing, contradiction at best.

3. Drew Brees might be washed

I talked about this a bit last week, but Drew Brees might really be washed.

He has a tendency to start hot and gradually slow down throughout a season. Last year in Week 1, Brees threw for 370 yards and completed 74% of his passes for 8.6 YPA. He got early hurt in Week 2, so that’s all we have to work with. Through three games in 2018, Brees completed over 80% of his passes for 8.36 yards per attempt and 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt. For those who prefer counting stats, he averaged 359 yards per game and had a TD:INT of 8:0.

Later in 2018, Brees showed his age. From Weeks 12-15 in 2018, his yards per attempt dropped to 6.05 and just 5.53 adjusted yards per attempt. He threw for a total of 702 yards and had four picks, while completing just 68% of his passes (that’s low for Brees). His thumb injury almost helped him in 2019 because it allowed him to rest his arm during the season.

This is Brees' @PFF passing map through 2 games, including nullified targets…

You could basically just sit your defense at 7-yards right now and be pretty confident he has to make a rare throw to beat you. pic.twitter.com/OroLMSxiJu

— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) September 22, 2020

Sam Monson of PFF posted an interesting thread regarding Brees. He showed that Brees basically can’t throw the ball beyond seven yards; if defenses can literally camp out at the first down marker and know the ball won’t be thrown over their heads, the Saints offense becomes immensely less threatening. The Saint were a popular Super Bowl pick, but if Brees continues playing like this, it’s hard to see how they win a game in the playoffs.

4. Almost buying the Arizona hype

From a fan perspective, I loved the Cardinals going into the season. I’ve been as all-in on Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury from Day 1 as anyone.

From an objective point-of-view though, I was a bit skeptical of the Cardinals this year. I understood where the excitement was coming from, but I believed they had a few gaping flaws that would be revealed and exploited by opponents — much like the Browns in 2019.

Through two games, that has not been true. Of all the teams capable of exploiting Arizona’s poor offensive line, San Francisco and Washington are at the top of the list. Instead, the Cardinals beat a relatively healthy 49ers squad in Week 1 and crushed Washington in Week 2. DeAndre Hopkins developed an immediate connection with Murray and the Cardinals are living up to the hype thus far. I’m starting to believe Arizona will be a real threat in the NFC playoff race.

5. Season from hell in San Francisco

Arizona’s Week 1 win over San Francisco was a quasi-changing of the guard moment. The Niners had everything go their way in 2019; the same cannot be said of 2020. San Francisco was already dealing with a handful of injuries offensively with Deebo Samuel, first-rounder Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. They couldn’t afford anyone else to go down.

*Week 2 enters chat* Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas each tore their ACLs and are out for the season. Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheim Mostert and Tevin Coleman each will be out for at least a week, likely more for the running backs.

The good news is that Nick Mullens knows Kyle Shanahan’s offense as good as any backup and Shanahan could scheme production from Trent Richardson if he had to. The bad news is that the 49ers recipe for success last year was an extremely fragile one. I’ve been saying for a while that if the defense regresses slightly and Garoppolo can’t make up for it, 13 wins can plummet to 9 or less in a hurry. There is no “if” anymore — it’s inevitable unless Mullens goes on some sort of Folesian run.

6. The Minneapolis Debacle

I changed my NFC North pick from Minnesota to Green Bay at the last minute, and boy does that decision look good right now.

The Vikings are an utter disaster. Defensively, they lost basically every decent cornerback from the 2019 team as well as key pass rusher, team leader and viral meme Everson Griffen. The Vikings helped rebirth vintage Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 before allowing Phillip Rivers to look competent in Week 2.

Offensively, it’s been even worse. Kirk Cousins is one of those quarterbacks who looks awesome when everything around him is perfect; but if you ask him to carry the load, he falls apart. Losing Stefon Diggs and Kevin Stefanski put more burden on Cousins to move the ball and he has not delivered. He put up 113 yards to go with three interceptions against a Colts defense that allowed Gardner Minshew to complete 95 percent of his passes in Week 1. He had a passer rating of ZERO deep into the third quarter.

The Vikings have to start thinking long-term soon. But that’s easier said than done because of the two-year contract they gave Cousins back in March. It is almost impossible financially for Minnesota to move on from him until after 2021.

Cousins serves no purpose on a rebuilding team. He is decent enough to win five or six games (probably), but not good enough to will a team into the playoffs. That’s no man’s land — the Bermuda Triangle of mediocrity. The Vikings need to pick a direction and fast.

7. Is Hard Knocks still filming?

Tyrod Taylor couldn’t move the ball against the Bengals in Week 1. Then Baker Mayfield made that same Bengals defense look like human traffic cones last Thursday (more on that later). So as a person who started the Chiefs defense in fantasy and needed just four points to win this week, I was terrified when Justin Herbert trotted out for the first series.

Despite making a few rookie mistakes, Herbert gave the Chargers a legitimate chance to win against the defending champs. There is zero reason he should not be the starter going forward.

That said, I understand why Anthony Lynn publicly stuck by Taylor after the game. You don’t want to bench Taylor, a man that Lynn deeply respects, while Taylor was sitting in a hospital bed (for an injury caused by team doctors. Lynn was showing respect for his guy. But it’s hard to believe Lynn can actually put Herbert back in the bottle after that performance.

8. More Mahomes Magic

The Chargers have played the Mahomes-led Chiefs as good as any team over the past couple years. Even without Derwin James, they largely contained the Chiefs offense for most of the way on Sunday. But you can only hold down Mahomes for so long. The Chargers defense can do basically everything right, and Mahomes can still beat you on any given play.

This angle underscores just how utterly impossible Mahomes is. This is witchcraft. pic.twitter.com/FnsLYmTy45

— Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) September 22, 2020

What the hell are you supposed to do against that?

Well, you could not simply hand him the ball by punting on fourth-and-one in overtime. I’ll never understand why coaches play to lose by less, instead of playing to win.

9. Falcons/Cowboys

If you want a coach that plays to win, look no further than the Falcons-Cowboys game, where Dan Quinn showed us exactly how to win the first half of an NFL football game. But just the first half.

Mike McCarthy, however, plays to win the game. The Cowboys went for two when down by nine points in the fourth quarter. Some people disagreed with the call, but it is absolutely the correct decision.

Another analogy:

You order takeout. Do you check if the restaurant got your order right when you pick it up, or do you wait till you are at your doorstep? You have to check at some point either way, and checking doesn't change what is in the box. https://t.co/5KuL4S52Ce

— Ethan Douglas (@ChiefsAnalytics) September 21, 2020

Two more things on this game.

One: Dak Prescott is very good at quarterbacking. 450 passing yards on 9.57 yard per attempt with four total touchdowns is good. If Dak Prescott were my quarterback, I would pay him a lot of money.

Two: Teams who scored 39+ points without committing a turnover were 440-0 since 1933. Make that 440-1. Sorry Falcons fans, those of you who are left.

10. Hope in Houston

The Houston Texans have not looked good through two weeks. They’ve also played the two best teams in football. That’s why I still have hope for the Texans. Tennessee barely beat out Denver and Jacksonville and the Colts actually lost to the damn Jags. There is no juggernaut in this division, so I still have some faith Deshaun Watson can figure out a way back into this division/playoff race.

11. Baker’s Back?

The Baker Mayfield we all know and love returned on Thursday night. He stayed in the pocket and his accuracy magically reappeared. He posted the highest QBR in the NFL in Week 2 after posting the 27th-highest in Week 1.

So what changed? Well, the Browns did run more play action and allowed Mayfield to play in his comfort zone. Also, Cleveland simply did not face the Ravens; in fact, they played the Bengals. We need to see Mayfield play against more teams in the middle of the spectrum — basically any of the other teams — to make a more informed judgement, but his Week 2 performance is a definite step in the right direction.

12. Injuries Rule the Week

Arguably the biggest story line coming out of Week 2 is the sheer amount of injuries to star players. I already addressed San Francisco losing Nick Bosa, Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheim Mostert and Soloman Thomas, but they were far from the only team ravaged by injuries.

Saquon Barkey tore his ACL and is done for the year, leaving my fantasy team in shambles. Christian McCaffrey suffered a high ankle sprain and will miss somewhere from three to seven weeks; considering the Panthers are semi-tanking, it will probably be closer to seven. Drew Lock injured his shoulder and will be out a month or so, taking the Broncos playoff hopes with him. Budding star receivers Courtland Sutton and Parris Campbell will miss the rest of the season after suffering knee injuries as well.

Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay were already out for Week 2, and now Julio Jones, Davante Adams and of course Will Fuller are battling hamstring injures. None of these appear to be long-term injuries, but they’ll be limited in some capacity for sure.

It’s impossible to say if this barrage of injuries is an outlier, a result of a lack of a full training camp and preseason or something in between. Regardless, let’s just hope the medical carts don’t run out of gas again in Week 3.

13. Ranking the 2-0 Teams (best to worst)

Juggernauts: Chiefs, Ravens

Super Bowl contenders: Seahawks, Packers

Sneaky good: Steelers, Bills, Titans

Need to see a bit more: Rams, Cardinals

Must be a typo: Raiders, Bears

14. Ranking the 0-2 Teams (worst to best)

Abject Disaster: Jets

300-yard, 3-interception QBs: Giants, Dolphins

Skipping to 2021: Broncos, Vikings

Kinda frisky but not actually good: Bengals, Lions, Panthers

Playoff hopefuls: Eagles, Texans, Falcons

15. MVP Ladder

This is extremely tentative and probably not a good idea long-term because it will cloud my judgement, but also it’ll be fun. What do I have to lose anyway? This will be a combination of who the MVP is through X weeks and who I think actually continues to play at an MVP level.

1. Russell Wilson
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Dak Prescott
6. Cam Newton
7. Kyler Murray
8. Josh Allen
9. Ryan Tannehill
10. Jared Goff / Tom Brady / Ben Roethlistberger
11. Non-QBs worthy of consideration: TJ Watt, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Donald, Jamal Adams, Harrison Butker