I thought about writing something clever for the intro, like I did last year, but what would be the point? You don’t read this shit anyway; you just skip to the important parts — so I’ll get right to the important parts.
1. Four starting QBs knocked out with injuries
Quarterbacks were dropping like flies on Sunday afternoon. Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr briefly exited with injuries, but I’m not sure either missed a single snap. Four other quarterbacks did not return to the field: Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz, Tyrod Taylor and Tua Tagovailoa.
This is going to sound morbid, but I think we all are kinda thinking it deep down: at least it wasn’t the good quarterbacks.
Tagovailoa’s injury is the most notable for a variety of reasons. He got the short end of the stick in 2020, recovering from a hip injury and being thrown into the starting lineup cold.
Fair or not, I can feel the clock ticking in Miami. Tagovailoa has yet to prove he can remain healthy, let alone be a franchise quarterback. Miami’s owner is growing restless; reports have tied the franchise to Deshaun Watson trade rumors for months, including as recently as two days ago.
As detestable as a trade for Watson would be, it is indicative of how desperate the franchise is to start winning. Now. They want Tagovailoa to be their QB of the future, but I don’t think they’ll have qualms moving on if the right deal manifests, whether to move up in the draft or for a veteran with juice.
Unfortunately for the other quarterbacks, a large segment of fans just weren’t interested in watching them play anyway. I’ll touch on them throughout this piece.
2. Kyler Murray: saving Kliff Kingsbury’s ass since 2019
There were two things missing from Kyler Murray’s resume in order to qualify for superstardom.
1. Playing great consistently. We’ve seen the splash plays, but we needed to see him string them together for full games.
2. A badass nickname. Chandler Jones doth proclaimed him “Baby Yoda” and while apparently this isn’t accurate, the only explanation for Murray’s abilities on the field is magic — or whatever the fuck a Baby Yoda does.
Granted, Murray was far from perfect on Sunday. In fact, his two interceptions, one of which was a pick-six, should have cost the Cardinals the game. (The Vikings kicker curse lives on.)
But that’s the crazy part: Imagine how could Murray could be without those few boneheaded play and with a competent play-caller. That thought terrifies the NFC West, as evidenced by the 49ers drafting Trey Lance (over Mac Jones) and the Rams moving on from Jared Goff.
3. Ravens aggression pays off
Baltimore’s decision to go for a 4th-and-1 from their own 43-yard line with 1:05 left in the fourth quarter seemed like such an obvious decision to us nerds. Ben Baldwin’s model gave a very strong “YOU BETTER DO THIS” recommendation.
But let’s be honest: The vast majority of NFL head coaches punt the ball away in the same situation.
When the alternative to going for it is to voluntarily give the ball to Patrick Mahomes — a punt all but guarantees a loss. When you have Lamar Jackson on your team and you need one (1!) yard to win the game, you give the ball to Lamar Jackson — because trusting Jackson to get one yard all but guarantees a win.
4. Mahomes’ magic is losing its luster
My goal is to become the guy who won’t shut up about Mahomes’ greatness. The day a bot tweets at me to stop talking about Mahomes is the day I win.
Exhibit A:
Exhibit B:
I having-jokingly proposed to my Sports Interviewing class that we should assign Gus Johnson to all Chiefs games in perpetuity in order to ensure Mahomes’ jaw-dropping talents are properly commemorated.
I don’t think I went far enough.
We need to bring in Mike Breen on third downs and red zone opportunities. Pat McAfee needs to be involved. This is an all-hands-on-deck situation, folks.
5. Derek Carr leads Raiders past Steelers
Carr has played incredible through two weeks, leading Las Vegas (still sounds weird) to upset wins over the Ravens and Steelers. The eight-year vet leads the league in passing yards by a country mile.
Jon Gruden may be a terrible evaluator of talent — okay, he definitely is — but the man can scheme up an offense. Look at Henry Ruggs doing things!
The Raiders defense has always been their Achilles heel. Through two weeks, they look, well, passable — which might be enough to contend for a Wild Card berth. Wins over Pittsburgh and Baltimore specifically could pay dividends late in the season.
(This game only makes the Bills home loss to the Steelers look even worse. Big Ben is cooked.)
6. Sam Darnold is good?
Sam Darnold looks like a starting NFL quarterback, which is not something that seemed possible a few months ago — hell, even a few weeks ago. It’s amazing what happens when you surround a QB with talented receivers, competent offensive line, efficient play-calls, and an all-world running back just for shits and giggles.
When you allow Darnold to simply drop back and throw the ball, he’s serviceable. (Which is probably not great news for the Panthers long-term because this is probably the best supporting cast he’ll have.)
Joe Brady is going to be the head coach of the Bengals by like Week 6, right?
7. It is officially Justin Fields Time™️
Dalton’s knee injury ushered in the Fields-era, which literally everyone except Matt Nagy knew was long overdue. It was reminiscent of Baker Mayfield’s usurpation of Tyrod Taylor in Cleveland.
Fields didn’t impress against Cincinnati, averaging -0.49 EPA/play on 20 dropbacks. However, his average depth of target was 10.8 yards; Dalton’s was just 3.5, per rbsdm.com. You don’t need me to tell you that Fields presents significantly more upside than Dalton, but that stat illustrates how much Fields can move the needle.
Fields is an obvious upgrade on the field, but there’s no doubt he’ll provide a significant boost to morale as well, especially to the fanbase. Whether or not that translate to wins remains to be seen.
There is an interesting dichotomy here, because wins and losses don’t really matter for the franchise this season — what matters is finding out if Fields is a franchise quarterback. However, wins and losses will determine if Nagy and GM Ryan Pace still have jobs in January. Watching how the Bears decision-makers balance their own job security with the best interest of the franchise will be fascinating (for non-Chicagoans, of course).
8. Texans push Browns, both teams move to 1-1
In a cruel twist of irony, Taylor also left this game with an injury, paving the way for a Browns victory. Prior to his hamstring injury, Taylor was dealing: He averaged 0.91 EPA/play on 13 dropbacks and a CPOE of 19, which ranked in the 99th and 98th percentile of all QBs since 2010, per rbsdm.
While we’re only through two weeks — and the Browns faced Patrick Mahomes in one of those weeks — their pass defense is a bit concerning. While it is natural for a defense with so many new faces to struggle early in the season, this is something to monitor moving forward. They cannot contend in an AFC featuring the Chiefs and Bills with a porous pass defense.
9. Red-zone woes doom Colts
Carson Wentz getting intercepted on a shovel pass might’ve been my favorite play of the week. It’s easy enough to laugh at a guy who is “making a personal decision” or “needs to do more research” or whatever nonsensical gibberish he’s saying about the COVID-19 vaccine — and then he hands over (almost literally) more material on a silver platter.
The difference at QB made the difference in this game. Matthew Stafford averaged 0.38 EPA/dropback (83rd percentile), while Wentz averaged 0.0 (40th percentile) before Jacob Eason’s atrocious relief performance derailed any Colts comeback attempt, per rbsdm.
The Colts inability or unwillingness to cover Cooper Kupp didn’t help either. Combine those together, you get a loss. The AFC South remains abominable, so all is not lost in Indy.
10. Bills trounce Dolphins 35-0
The Bills were never going to lose to the Dolphins, but damn did they need a win like this. (Or at least I needed them to get a win like this. Fucking Pittsburgh.)
The offense still isn’t quite clicking at 2020 levels yet, but that’s okay. Those are unrealistic expectations anyway.
The biggest takeaway from Miami, aside from Tagovailoa’s injury, was AJ Epenesa’s breakout performance. If he can continue a similar level of disruption, the Bills have a puncher’s chance in the AFC.
11. Tony Pollard propels Cowboys to victory
The “Tony Pollard Is Better Than Ezekiel Elliot” train left the station last season and it’s picking up steam by the day. I wouldn’t say I hopped off before this season, but I definitely had more faith than most in Zeke’s production bouncing back.
He’s looked fine this year… but Pollard has been electric. I figured the Cowboys — specifically Jerry Jones — would let his talents go to waste in order to justify Elliot’s contract, but Kellen Moore doesn’t give a damn about paychecks.
12. The Brady-Gronk Renaissance
The Bucs offense picked up right where they left off in 2020, obliterating opposing defenses. Brady and Gronkowski picked up where they left off… in 2017? Brady leads the NFL with nine TD passes and Gronk leads all pass catchers with four touchdowns.
The duo’s resurgance is equally endearing as it is confusing. There is something poetic about two old dudes finding the fountain of youth in Florida — but it’s still weird, right?
13. Ranking the 2-0 Teams
I think it’s more fun to rank the teams this way. Who wants to read “1. Tampa Bay 2. Kansas City” or vice versa every week until February?
Juggernaut: Tampa Bay
Legit Good: L.A. Rams
Intriguing: Arizona, San Francisco
Could See on WC Weekend: Las Vegas, Denver
Not Buying It: Carolina
14. Ranking the 0-2 Teams
Still alive, in theory: Minnesota, Indianapolis
Frisky, with different coaches: N.Y. Giants
Bad, but who cares in 2021: N.Y. Jets, Jacksonville
God only knows: Atlanta
15. Way-Too-Early MVP Rankings
- Tom Brady
- Kyler Murray
- Derek Carr
- Matthew Stafford
- Teddy Bridgewater
If you’re basing these rankings solely on two weeks of football, I think these have to be the top-five MVP candidates. Moving forward, I think we all expect the alpha dogs — Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson, Rodgers — to rise towards the top — but that’s not the point of this ranking!