Sep 30 2020
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As you can see, it is Wednesday evening and I’m just posting this now. You can safely assume that I did not learn my lesson and once again procrastinated my homework until Sunday night. Oh well.

1. The Josh/Jaheim Scale

For two and a half quarters, Allen maxed out the Josh/Jaheim scale in favor of the former. The Bills raced out to a 28-3 lead, but I will say that the score was a bit misleading. The Rams were not playing that bad. L.A.’s long drives stalled out prematurely, ending in field goal attempts, while the Bills turned every sustained drive into six points.

Some of that is better play-making and coaching for the Bills, but some of it is also just luck. That’s why I wasn’t surprised when the Rams started to comeback. Because they didn’t make any drastic changes — they simply started punching the ball into the end zone.

For the Bills, luck went the other way as the refs made a highly questionable call on Allen’s interception, then they punted after a three-and-out and finally Aaron Donald did Aaron Donald things and just took the ball from Allen. This is a round-about way of saying this game was much closer than the score indicated. It was more like an NBA game in terms of exchanging scoring runs than a typical back-and-forth NFL game.

One tangible thing that contributed to the turning of the tides for Buffalo is that Josh morphed back into Jaheim. He started running around in the pocket like a horse in a hospital, credit to Robert Mays for that brilliant joke. The second things started going awry for Buffalo, Allen regressed to his 2019 self. That is extremely worrisome to me.

On the other hand, he absolutely turned the switch back onto Josh as he executed a brilliant game-winning drive (aided by an iffy at-best pass interference call, I know, I know.)

What we learned this week is that the Josh/Jaheim scale is not measured week-to-week. It can switch at any point during a game, drive-to-drive, even play-to-play. He can slowly cut down on the bad habits and risky tendencies, but Jaheim will always be lurking inside him.

2. Patrick Mahomes is Football Jesus

We didn’t need a reminder that Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football (and on his way to being the greatest ever imo). He gave us one anyway.

This summer’s NFL 100 list — the players ranking of the top 100 players — ranked Mahomes as the fourth-best player in football. Lamer Jackson was ranked number one. Mahomes took that personally.

Mahomes massacred the Ravens with four touchdowns in the first half along with nearly 300 yards. It didn’t matter what Baltimore did — the Chiefs had the answer. Eight man blitz? Bring it on. 3rd-and-long? Touchdown.

He became the fastest QB to 10,000 career passing yards in just 34 games, and that includes the Denver game last year when he got hurt in the first quarter. If he continues at this rate, he’ll catch Tom Brady and Drew Brees’ current career yardage in just fifteen seasons, and that doesn’t factor in the 17th regular season game which starts next year.

Monday Night’s masterpiece didn’t tell us anything that we didn’t already know: Mahomes is the best quarterback in football. If you want to put Russell Wilson in that tier, I’m fine with that.

As far as the AFC pecking order, Kansas City stands alone, followed by a glut of really good teams in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and New England. You have to still give the Ravens the edge of that group, despite the loss.

3. The NFL’s Giannis Equivalent

Many people believed the Ravens were the best team in football. That’s why they were 3.5-point favorites against Kansas City despite minimal-to-no home-field advantage. While that was a logical and understandable conclusion, I never bought into it and Monday night proved why Baltimore is still a step behind Kansas City.

The Chiefs can win playing any brand of football. If they fall behind by 20, they’ll simply erase that deficit by halftime. If they get up by 20, they’ll just turn on cruise control and step on the gas periodically to maintain the lead. Their defense has flaws, but so does every single defense in football.

The Ravens are a bit of a one-trick pony. When they can play their style of football, they cannot be stopped. But the second some team schemes them out of their strengths, they get flustered. Since Jackson took over as the starter, the Ravens are 19-0 with a lead at halftime and 0-5 when trailing at half. There is obviously plenty of selection bias and sample size caveats, but the eye-test agrees with the numbers.

I tweeted during the game that Jackson is the NFL’s version of Giannis. It was half facetious and half genuine. They utterly dominate in the regular season but haven’t figured out how to put the team on their back when shit hits the fan. I have complete confidence that Jackson, and Giannis for that matter, will very soon. Just probably not this year.

4. Houston, I Have a Solution

Jackson may not have figured out to win funky games, but his college rival Deshaun Watson has that gene in his DNA. The only reason Watson hasn’t experienced NFL success like his colleagues Mahomes and Jackson is because his coaching staff isn’t maximizing his talents. 

This is why I am officially launching my campaign to get Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy the head coaching gig in Houston next season. While Andy Reid always has a massive voice in the play-calling department, Bieniemy has been the one actually dialing up the offense over the past few years.

Truthfully, he should have been hired by some team a long time ago. Jason Reid of The Undefeated wrote about his frustration with Bienemy having to “wait his turn” after the Chiefs lost to the Patriots in the 2019 AFC Championship game. That was 18 months ago! One Super Bowl title later, Bieniemy was once again shut out of 2020’s head coaching hiring phase.

It’s yet another indictment on the NFL’s inherent racism. Zac Taylor was the QBs coach for the Rams and was not calling plays, yet he got the Bengals head coaching job in 2019 essentially because he knew Sean McVay. I like what Joe Brady did at LSU as much as anyone, but the fact is that he had one great year as a play-caller in college and is already at the same coaching level as Bieniemy. There’s one difference between those two dudes.

The problem with this theory is that it involves Bill O’Brien getting fired. That would mean the Texans would have to stink, but I think they can still make the playoffs (and maybe even win the AFC South). Houston might be 0-3, but also faced arguably the AFC’s top three teams. Although, if O’Brien hadn’t been so conservative, the Texans probably would’ve beaten Pittsburgh last week.

Nothing about their AFC South rivals has impressed me whatsoever. The Colts went 2-1 against the “gauntlet” of Jacksonville, Minnesota and New York (does it matter which one?). The Titans managed to beat Jacksonville, as well as Minnesota and Denver, but only by a combined six points. If Houston can get five or six intra-division wins — which might not be that tall of a task — they can probably steal this division. That might be the worst possible outcome for their future.

5. The NFC Pecking Order

Arguably the NFC’s four best teams went head-to-head this weekend as the Seahawks took down the Cowboys and the Packers bested the Saints. 

The Seahawks and Packers are clearly in a tier of their own now in my opinion. They have the two best quarterbacks, by far, in the NFC. Despite being the most all-in team ever, the Saints have plenty of issues that have been exposed through three weeks (more on that later). Dallas might be 1-2, but they have the offense to compete with anyone. Injuries across the offensive line and defense have cost the Cowboys a couple wins early on, but as they get healthy — and for the love of god stop fumbling — they’ll be right back into the discussion.

The Buccaneers and Rams are quietly moving into this elite group. I need to see the Bucs beat someone besides the Panthers and Broncos before I pencil them into the second tier here.

6. Who’s to Blame in New Orleans?

I’ve been screaming that Drew Brees is washed from the rooftops all season, but the reality is that the Saints’ defense is probably their biggest concern at this point.

Brees isn’t pushing the ball downfield at all, but the offense hasn’t been designed to do that quite some time anyway. The Saints efficiency should return when Michael Thomas gets healthy. If their offense continues struggling after Thomas returns, then we might have serious issues.

The dirty secret in New Orleans is the defense. The Saints have surrendered over 34 points and 360 total yards in the past two weeks to the Raiders and Packers, respectively. If not for a few fluky turnovers by Brady in Week 1, the Bucs would’ve hung 30 on them as well. Opposing offenses are walking up and down the field against them.

Granted, all three of those teams have pretty damn good offenses. But at the same time, if they want to make the Super Bowl, they’re going to have to beat likely two of the aforementioned Packers, Seahawks and Cowboys — all of which boast elite offenses. 

Defenses tend to struggle the most early in the season and a COVID-offseason can only exacerbate September woes. One would assume the Saints will slowly improve on that side of the ball throughout the season. On the other hand, we may have just been flat out wrong about New Orleans. They might not be that good.

7. 49ers Resilience

Kyle Shanahan’s ability to take practice squad level players and drop thirty points against an NFL defense is breathtaking. (Granted the Giants and Jets are barely NFL defenses.)

Without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, first round rookie Brandon Aiyuk served as the primary playmaker. He tallied 31 yards and a score on the ground and added five catches for 70 yards. Aiyuk’s 19-yard touchdown rush had a 93.2% TD probability according to Next Gen Stats. That’s the only 15+ yard rush with a TD probability higher than 75% since 2018! Nick Mullens threw for 343 yards while seven different receivers racked up at least 20 yards. Take a bow, Kyle Shanahan.

The Nick Bosa-less Niners defense still made life hell for Daniel Jones, holding him to under 180 yards passing. Of course, Jones also committed in his weekly interception and lost fumble. Giants running backs totaled just seventeen combined rushing yards without Saquon Barkley, though they were forced to throw early and often (but it’s not like Barkely did much better in Week 1. Yes, I’m still bitter.)

The 49ers 2-1 record feels like a house of cards in some ways due to their weak schedule. However, they host the Eagles and Dolphins the next two weeks so there’s no reason why they can’t keep stacking wins early in the year. They are going to need every one of them too because their schedule ramps up in a hurry. Their next seven opponents are a combined 16-5, and that includes a trip to 1-2 New Orleans.

8. Eagles Despair

What the hell is wrong with Carson Wentz?

The Bengals turned Baker Mayfield into football’s most efficient quarterback in Week 2. Yet, Wentz continued to play like 2019 Mayfield with Freddie Kitchens.

The further we get from Wentz and Doug Pederson’s 2017 magical season, the more it looks like an outlier. Sean McVay got destroyed for not being innovative enough last season while going 9-7 and narrowly missing the playoffs. Meanwhile the Eagles haven’t done a damn thing since their Super Bowl win. 

Why hasn’t Pederson gotten the same criticism? Two reasons: a) Pederson actually out-coached Bill Belichick and won the Super Bowl, while McVay’s offense was shut down by New England. b) 9-7 gets you a division title in the NFC East while the Rams go 9-7 don’t even get a Wild Card berth.

The Eagles have tons of injuries offensively, but so do the 49ers. Shanahan is adapting his scheme and dominating, while Pederson and Wentz can’t figure out how to beat Washington or Cincinnati. This is no longer a fluke — this is the reality of Philadelphia football.

9. It’s Big **** Nick Time

Mitchell Trubisky is a living reminder that #QBWins are a stupid and meaningless statistic without context. When the 2-0 Bears fell behind the 0-2 Falcons, Matt Nagy immediately made the switch to Nick Foles. That is all the evidence we needed that the decision to start Trubisky in the first place came from GM Ryan Pace’s desk.

Foles doesn’t move the needle much for Chicago, but at 3-0 they don’t need a whole lot of help to make the playoffs, especially with an extra Wild Card spot this year. 

Just six wins over their next thirteen games might be enough for the seventh seed, and they still have to play Carolina, Jacksonville, Detroit and Minnesota twice.

10. Atlanta Needs an Exorcism

The curse of Super Bowl LI continues to haunt the Falcons. Not only did they blow a historic lead in Week 2, but they did so again by giving away a 16-point fourth quarter lead to the fucking Nick Foles Bears.The Falcons had a 99+% win probability against Dallas and Chicago. And lost them both. The Falcons are breaking math.

I still think Dan Quinn is a decent head coach, but he needs to go solely to shake up the locker room. Albert Einstein once said “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”. The Falcons are insane.

11. Old QB Check-in

I buried the 38-and-up QBs after Week 1, so I think it’s time to make some amends. I already discussed Brees, so I’ll skip him in this section.

Brady played much better than his stats through two weeks, then ironically his stats glorified his play in Week 3. In either case, he is very much still Tom Brady and Tampa is quickly becoming the NFC South favorite, if they aren’t already.

Big Ben looks like Big Ben. He’s been solid as hell and that’s all Pittsburgh needs because they might have the only defense that matters.

Phillip Rivers has yet to be tested, but hasn’t shit himself yet. They could’ve done better in free agency, but they could’ve done worse. I’m sorry I can’t give any better analysis than this. It’s all I got.

12. J-E-T-S Suck Suck Suck

Good news, Jets fans! Eleventh overall selection Mekhi Becton looks to be a potential franchise left tackle.

Bad news: He’s the only piece of this roster and coaching staff worth keeping. The Jets continue to be an abomination, aside from Becton and Braxton Berrios of course. (If you think Ryan Tannehill, Devante Parker, Robby Anderson looked awesome when they got away from Gase, oh boy just wait til Berrios racks up 1,500 yards as the

13. Ranking the 3-0 Teams (best to worst)

Absolute Juggernaut: Chiefs

Simply Awesome: Seahawks, Packers

Good Schedule Luck?: Bills, Steelers

Definitely Good Schedule Luck: Titans

14. Rankings the 0-3 Teams (worst to best)

Bad Apples: Jets, Giants

Too Many Injuries: Broncos

Punt To Tie: Eagles, Bengals (pun not intended)

Good QB and WRs; Nothing Else: Vikings, Falcons

Poor Schedule Luck: Texans

15. MVP Tracker

  1. Russell Wilson
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Patrick Mahomes
  4. Dak Prescott
  5. Josh Allen
  6. Lamar Jackson
  7. Cam Newton
  8. Kyler Murray
  9. Tom Brady
  10. Jared Goff
  11. Non-QBs: Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Alvin Kamara, NicKareem ChubbHunt, Aaron Donald
Posted inFootball NFL
Tagsatlanta falcons Baltimore Ravens ben roethlistberger buffalo bills chicago bears deshaun watson drew brees green bay packers houston texans josh allen kansas city chiefs lamar jackson new orleans saints patrick mahomes Philadelphia Eagles phillip rivers san francisco 49ers seattle seahawks tom brady

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