The Week 4 Scripted 15

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1. The Josh/Jaheim Scale

There’s no disputing this was a Josh performance; in fact, Allen didn’t use his legs at all on Sunday. According to PFF, Allen’s game against the Raiders was his best game of the year and his first without a turnover-worthy play.

The Bills as an organization continues doing nearly everything right. As a cautiously optimistic Bills fan, I need to see them beat a couple legit teams before I believe this team can make the AFC Championship game. Those tests are coming with Tennessee, Kansas City, New England and Seattle over the next five weeks.

2. Houston, I Admit We Have a Problem

It’s time to admit I was wrong about the Texans. I wanted to believe Deshaun Watson is in that near-elite tier of quarterbacks just behind Mahomes with Wilson and Rodgers, but the reality is that he isn’t. Or at least with this Houston organization, he’s not.

I thought Watson’s individual greatness and leadership would raise the Texans to the AFC South title. Despite the records of the Colts (3-1) and Titans (3-0), that might’ve been possible. I truly believed that.

The reality is that nobody could’ve elevated this Houston team. The Texans have a below average unit every position except quarterback and maybe wide receiver and linebacker. Bill O’Brien has spent the last couple seasons actively tanking this roster. There’s no point in rehashing each individual transaction, only accepting the fact that the Texans stink and owe their 2021 first and second round picks to Miami.

I started my campaign to get Houston to hire Eric Bieniemy last week. I fully stand by it.

3. Whose Got Next?

There has been much debate as to who would be the first coach fired. Bill O’Brien in Houston becomes the first domino to fall, apparently as a result of a “player revolt” led by JJ Watt.

If that’s all it takes to get a coach fired, Matthew Stafford needs to be knocking on Bob Quinn’s front door immediately. The Lions have lost six consecutive games in which they held a double digit lead under Matt Patricia. SIX. I’ve been saying the Falcons are breaking math, but apparently they aren’t the only ones.

Here’s what Charles McDonald wrote for the New York Daily News. It sums up the Lions rather nicely — well, not nicely in terms of amicability. More like when you see your friend trip down the stairs and you say Hahaha, nice.

Normally, no one gives a crap about the Detroit Lions outside of their incredibly passionate fanbase, and boy do you have to be passionate about the Lions to still root for them. But Matt Patricia has become so insufferable that we’re forced to pay attention to the Lions.

New York Daily News

The other team that needs to stage a coup is the Jets. It’s truly indefensible that Adam Gase and Gregg Williams are employed by NFL teams in 2020. Every player who leaves Gase’s touch immediately becomes a star. Ryan Tannehill, Kenyan Drake, DeVante Parker and now Robby Anderson. 

Gase has been so egregiously terrible that he forced injured Mekhi Becton and Sam Darnold — literally the two most important players on the roster — back into a meaningless game on national television. And we barely even noticed.

I’ll spare Dan Quinn the embarrassment this week. He’s been through enough. Just re-read the Rodgers section if you desperately need your anti-Quinn fix for the week.

4. Kansas City’s Floor is The Roof

PFF’s Steve Palazzolo discussed last week how Kansas City’s floor as an offense is unbelievably high due to their playcalling and talent at OL and WR. We just witnessed exactly that as Patrick Mahomes played arguably the worst game of his career and the Chiefs still put up 300 yards of offense and got the win.

The Chiefs only scored 19 points offensively and generally didn’t look like themselves. However, they did start the game with a pair of 70+ yard drives that stalled in the red zone. While situational coaching/defense is Belichick’s greatest strength, that rarely happens twice to Mahomes. In fact, I’d say the Chiefs conservatism (kicking field goals versus going for a 4th-and-goal from the five-yard line) was in large part due to Brian Hoyer starting instead of Cam Newton. Kansas City was aggressive in those exact situations against Baltimore because they knew that had to be to win — they didn’t feel that way against New England.

This game was just yet another example of why Kansas City is the best team in the NFL.

5. Buy or Sell: Colts elite defense?

Through four weeks, the Indianapolis Colts have the best defense in the NFL by just about every statistical measure. Here’s what I wrote as part of my rationale for picking Houston to win the AFC South:

“The Colts are spending the least amount of their cap on defense and it shows, especially in the secondary.”

My Complete 2020 NFL Predictions

I’m more than willing to admit that I was wrong. DeForest Buckner has been arguably the most impactful trade acquisition, which is saying something considering the impact made by Stefon Diggs and David Johnson DeAndre Hopkins. The secondary is full no-namers and rookie-scale players, but in this case does not mean a lack of talent. Rookie third-round safety, Julian Blackmon, has quickly established himself as a potential rising star.

I do believe the Colts defense can be a top-five unit in the league, but I am selling the premise that they are the best in the league. Their early season schedule (Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, Bears) inflated the stats. I’m curious as to how they play against the only truly elite offenses left on the schedule, the Ravens and Packers.

6. No Receivers, No Problem for Aaron Rodgers

Speaking of Green Bay’s offense…. The Packers tried to make life as hard as humanly possible for Aaron Rodgers and he just continues to dominate. We all know about their much-maligned draft decisions, plus the Packers were without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard this week. Rodgers completed 27/33 passes for 327 yards and four touchdowns. When targeting running backs and tight ends, Rodgers completed all twenty passes for 241 yards and four scores. Maybe the Packers were right to not draft any receivers because the man is literally perfect when he doesn’t target them.

7. Justin Herbert Looks Promising

I’ve been saying since the draft that I did not agree with the Chargers decision to draft Justin Herbert. It wasn’t necessarily about Herbert himself — though I certainly wasn’t infatuated with him as a prospect — more so that the Chargers have a win-now roster and taking the long-term route at the most important position in football didn’t make any sense to me. Trying to build for the future while winning in the present is a nearly-impossible needle to thread. The Packers might’ve done it, but that’s only because their negligence accidentally reinvigorated one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

The most puzzling part of Los Angeles’ decision was that this was the perfect offseason to get a good quarterback in free agency. I loved the idea of signing Tom Brady or Cam Newton and drafting one of the top offensive tackles, drafting defensive weapon Isaiah Simmons or even getting greedy and chasing CeeDee Lamb. In hindsight, I think that route would’ve worked, too. Brady, Newton, Lamb and those tackles have all been amazing.

All that said, Herbert looks damn impressive for a rookie, especially one that was thrown into the fire with minimal first-team reps in a COVID-offseason. His three touchdowns passes against Tampa Bay last week, a legit top-five defense, were incredible balls. On the two deep shots, he waited patiently in the pocket before uncorking a pair of nukes and dropping them into a bucket, all while having an oncoming rusher right in his face. The other one was just beautiful ball placement to his receiver down the sideline. All three were to undrafted receivers/tight ends.

The #BigTimeThrows of the week, courtesy of Justin Herbert.

Arm strength and accuracy on the first one then incredible touch and placement against a 0-blitz pic.twitter.com/yMUzkewPJp

— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) October 7, 2020

The Chargers injuries have essentially killed their chances of actually winning anything this season, so letting Herbert learn on the fly is their best option. That doesn’t mean L.A. can play the revisionist history card and say drafting him was the right strategy. But hey, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

8. Browns Look Legit

A funny thing happens when you get good players the ball: THEY SCORE FUCKING TOUCHDOWNS.

The Browns finally realized they have an elite playmaker in Odell Beckham Jr. and found creative ways to get him the football. He scored three touchdowns. They won the game. It’s funny how that works, huh?

As someone who picked Cleveland to make the playoffs, Kevin Stefanski has been even better than I hoped. The Browns didn’t stand a chance in Week 1 against the Ravens, but they’ve won all three games since as the team adapts to Stefanski’s modifications.

Cleveland's running game:

🔹1st in explosives: 22%!
🔹4th in EPA/run

But the big surprise?

🔹2nd in plays WITH A PULLER!

HC Kevin Stefanski was one of the heaviest zone coordinators last year. This year, his running game is multifaceted, unpredictable, and even more deadly. pic.twitter.com/MwWbL9wuXf

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 6, 2020

The offensive line additions of Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willls Jr. have already paid dividends as both rank as top-ten tackles in pass block win rate, while Joel Bitonio leads all guards. As a team, the Browns rank third in pass block win rate and second in run block win rate. There’s a legitimate argument that the Browns have the best offensive line in football. 

Cleveland is good, guys. That 18-year postseason drought could be coming to an end. Crazier shit has happened in 2020.

9. Dallas is Fine. No, Really.

I’ll admit defeat about the other Texas team, but there’s no way in hell I’m giving up on Dallas yet. They play in the NFC East, after all!

First of all, the Cowboys offense is not the problem in Dallas. While they continue to fumble way too much, which puts arguably the worst defense in football in even more difficult situations, Dak Prescott is not the problem in Dallas.

I’ll say it again: Dak. Prescott. Is. Not. The. Problem.

The Cowboys trail the NFC East division lead by half a game. They have a new coach and tons of new faces on defense. They haven’t even faced anyone in this trash heap of a division yet. As the offensive line slowly gets healthier and the defense (hopefully) starts to gel a bit, the wins will come.

10. It’s Time for the Carson Wentz Conversation

Philadelphia might be in first place in the NFC East with a 1-2-1 record, but all is not well in the City of Brotherly Love. Greg Ward is once again the top receiver on the roster and the entire offensive line is hurt. Oh yeah, and Carson Wentz is playing like Jaheim Allen.

I can’t remember where I heard this, but I think it’s spot-on: The Eagles injuries prevent Wentz from thriving. They do not stop him from surviving.

Basically, Wentz’ situation is terrible, but he should still be able to find ways to beat Washington and Cincinnati. Rodgers is winning without any receivers; Russell Wilson succeeded for years without competent offensive lineman. Ditto for Watson.

Wentz has proven his MVP-caliber 2017 season was a fluke, but if he continues playing like this, he’ll prove he doesn’t deserve to be a starter in this league.

(Also: Good grief, Nick Mullens. I cannot believe he blew this game. I am irate.)

11. Arizona Air Raid Woes

I am quite confused as to how Arizona managed to beat San Francisco (back when they were healthy), then lose to Detroit and Carolina. Something is off in Arizona.

Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid scheme was supposed to be an aggressive, down-field passing offense. Instead, Kyler Murray ranks last in the NFL in yards per completion. The offense relies on heavy doses of WR screens and occasional, premeditated deep shots. The frustrating part is that the deep shots work! Just do more of them!

Murray has been bailing out Arizona’s offense with his legs, and it’s been successful to some extent. However, his surprisingly mediocre passing statistics need to improve for this offense to take the step forward everyone was hoping for. That’s partially on Kingsbury to call better plays and partially on Murray to execute in the intermediate depths of the field better.

12. Old QB Check-In

Tom Brady balled the fuck out after throwing a dumb pick-six early against the Chargers. He completed 15/17 passes for 263 yards and three TDs in the second half to lead Tampa Bay to a 38-31 win. If the Bucs would just stop throwing deep outs we wouldn’t need to have this conversation at all.

Drew Brees is back. Well, for now at least. His average depth of target doubled from Weeks 1-3. Time will tell whether the sudden spike in was due to Brees’ confidence or the Lions terrible defense. Regardless, Brees’ performance on Sunday can only be a positive sign and Michael Thomas should be returning soon.

I hate everything about Phillip Rivers on the Colts

— Nolan Hughes (@nolan_hughes24) October 4, 2020

Big Ben got an unexpected bye week thanks to the Titans blatant disregard for COVID-19 protocols. Pittsburgh definitely would’ve preferred a later bye given Ben’s age though, and they have been rather open about it.

13. Ranking the Worst Five Teams

1. N.Y. Jets
2. N.Y. Giants
3. Denver
4. Washington
5. Detroit

Honorable mentions: Atlanta, Jacksonville, Houston

14. Ranking the Top Five Teams

1. Kansas City
2. Green Bay
3. Seattle
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay

Honorable mentions: Buffalo, New Orleans L.A. Rams, New England, Indianapolis

15. MVP Tracker

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Russell Wilson
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Tom Brady
5. Josh Allen
6. Dak Prescott
7. Lamar Jackson
8. Cam Newton
9. Aaron Donald
10. Myles Garrett

Non-QB’s: Donald, Garrett, DeForest Buckner, Khalil Mack, Stefon Diggs, Odell Beckham Jr., Alvin Kamara

There were a couple notable changes that I think worth discussing further.

• Rodgers overtakes Wilson for the top spot. I think Rodgers has done more with less and Green Bay’s schedule gives the Packers a leg up on Seattle for the NFC’s top seed.

• Tom Brady rises into the top five. Look, the Bucs aren’t beating playoffs teams or anything, but 3-1 is 3-1. Brady is putting up huge numbers with massive injuries to his once promising receiving core, including Chris Godwin. I’ve been highly impressed and it won’t be long before Brady works his way into the national conversation.

• I think there’s a clear drop-off after Allen. Prescott is putting up MVP-caliber numbers, but his team isn’t good enough unless Dallas catches fire and finishes like 12-4 or 13-3. Jackson suffers from statistical regression and increasingly fast voter fatigue.

• Cam Newton dropped a spot, but there’s an argument he should’ve moved up after seeing Brian Hoyer play on Monday. Newton faces a similar hurdle to Prescott in that the Patriots need to finish at least 12-4 for Newton to be a legit MVP contender.

• Donald cracks the top ten solely because I think the Rams are pretty good and someone has to represent them. Donald is wrecking games by himself. Jared Goff has been above average, but he’s just a puppet for Sean McVay’s scheme.