Oct 16 2019
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Don’t be alarmed by the title. This is still my weekly wrap-up article, but I’ve decided to re-brand it.

Robert Mays of the Ringer is my favorite NFL writer. He does a weekly column called the Starting 11, of course named after the eleven starters on a football team. Instead of using a round number of say, five or ten, it’s a clever way to hit the majority of story-lines across the league.

I wanted to do my own version, so I’ve created the Scripted 15. Most teams predetermine the first fifteen or so offensive plays of every game. That’s how teams like Green Bay can noticeably dominate the first quarter, but seemingly forget how to move the ball as the game progresses. It’s technically called the “First 15”, but that doesn’t sound as cool.

1: The Rams have cashed in all their chips despite a slow start.

Technically, this trade happened after Week 6, but it’s crucially important to discuss.

This is the type of aggressive move the Rams have become known for since moving to Los Angeles. However, the timing is rather strange. The Rams are currently 3-3 and in third place in the NFC West. They trail the 49ers and Seahawks by at least 2 games and already have a loss to both teams — barring a miracle, the division is already out of reach. While they only trail the Vikings by one game for the second wild card spot, there are four teams between them. The Rams went all-in when the playoffs are quickly falling out of reach.

Even when you consider the long-term ramifications, this trade doesn’t totally make sense. The Rams will undoubtedly re-sign Ramsey to a massive extension and Ramsey will be a great Ram for quite some time. He’ll likely be worth whatever contract he gets, but the Rams are already paying top dollar at several other positions. Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald which each carry the highest cap hit at their respective positions in 2020, according to Over The Cap. Brandin Cooks also carries the fifth highest cap hit among wide receivers.

Great teams normally balance expensive expensive talent with cheap talent (aka: draft picks). Except the Rams have not had a 1st-round pick since 2016 (Goff) and won’t have another until 2022. The NFL’s rapidly rising cap helps the Rams, but there’s going to be a tipping point sooner or later — this isn’t a sustainable team-building model.

We all mocked the Texans for trading two 1st-rounders for Laremy Tunsil. Now, we all look slightly foolish because Deshaun Watson hasn’t been sacked in two weeks and the Texans look like legitimate postseason contenders. The problem for Los Angeles is that the cornerback position is not a glaring weakness like offensive line was for Houston. In fact, the Rams’ offensive line is probably their own greatest weakness.

My biggest takeaway from the Ramsey acquisition is that it reveals a great deal of trust in Goff, who has struggled immensely since signing his massive extension this off-season. Teams who don’t believe in their quarterback don’t make all-in moves like this, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it was a smart move.

2: The Jaguars have the resources to become serious contenders in a hurry.

The two keys to building a contender are surplus draft capital and a cheap quarterback. After the Ramsey trade, Jacksonville has both. The Jaguars own multiple first round picks in each of the next two drafts. They also have Gardner Minshew, a potential franchise quarterback in the first year of a rookie contract. They’ll need to hit on those draft picks and find a way to offload Nick Foles’ contract (more on that later), but Jacksonville is suddenly on the fast track towards Super Bowl contention as soon as 2020.

3: RIP to the once promised 2015 QB class.

Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston at the 2015 NFL Draft Combine.

We may have witnessed the disappointing finale of the top two picks of the 2015 NFL draft came simultaneously on Sunday. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were two of the most hyped college quarterbacks since Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III in 2012. Both players won a Heisman trophy and Winston led Florida State to the 2013 national championship. People — meaning myself — thought the two had the chance to revolutionize the NFL. If I had Twitter back then, there’s approximately a 100% chance that I would have tweeted “I guarantee Jameis Winston wins a Super Bowl within 6 years”.

Fast forward to 2019. Winston threw five interceptions and fumbled the ball away once in the Buccaneers loss to the Panthers… and that was the better performance of the two. Mariota went 7/18 for 63 yards and two interceptions before getting benched for Ryan Tannehill, another failed 1st-round pick.

I think Mariota could have been an above average starter under the right circumstances, but was ruined by a series of poor coaching staffs in Tennessee. Winston, on the other hand, has had every opportunity to succeed. Especially this season, where he has Bruce Arians’ offensive scheme (which fits his game), two elite wide receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) and a pair of solid receiving tight ends (OJ Howard and Cameron Brate). There’s no excuse for Winston’s poor play, not to mention his off-the-field antics.

Both quarterbacks are in the last year of their contract and both franchises will likely move on from them after this season. It’s truly sad and surprising to see how both of their careers have panned out. I never could have forseen this in 2015. Mariota and Winston’s careers makes me reconsider how much value I place in top draft picks, which is timely considering the upcoming draft eligibility of Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence.

4: Monday Night Football Reaction

The Packers narrowly edged out the Lions on a last-second field goal. The fourth quarter was filled with controversy as the Lions defense was charged with several questionable penalties. The outcome of the game was not insignificant; it was literally the difference between first and last place in the NFC North.

I watched the first half of this game before going to bed. (Kerryon Johnson only needed like 3 fantasy points to beat my team and I couldn’t bear to watch. I ultimately lost by .5 points.) But honestly, I don’t even need to watch the fourth quarter to know the blame for this loss does not fall on the referees — it falls on the Lions. Detroit should have put this game away in the first half.

On the game’s opening drive, the Lions found themselves deep in the red-zone following a perfectly executed flea flicker. They only managed a field goal. Two drives later, the Lions were called for delay of game on 3rd-and-goal from the 2-yard line. They settled for another field goal. So instead of a 21-0 lead, Detroit merely led by 13 points.

Early in the fourth quarter, Detroit’s Justin Coleman intercepted Rodgers and gave the Lions great field position inside Green Bay territory. The Lions could not manage to get a first down, failing to kill a single minute off the clock and settling for yet another field goal. The refs might have screwed the Lions, but the Lions screwed themselves first.

As far as the Packers go, they keep winning close games in odd ways, much like the Saints. Football guys will tell you that’s what good teams do: find ways to win games. Analytics gurus will tell you records in one-score games typically regresses to the mean (near .500).

I think the answer lies somewhere in between. The fact that both Green Bay and New Orleans keep winning games without their quarterbacks at their peak is notable, as they should only get better offensively.

5: The Jets offense… looked good?

Through four weeks, the Jets were averaging 3.16 yards per play. That would be the lowest of any offense since 1978. When Darnold returned Sunday, the offense looked completely different. He threw for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns in New York’s win over Dallas, including a 92-yard bomb to Robby Anderson.

The Jets’ sudden competence on offense could be (and probably is) an outlier. They caught the Cowboys looking ahead to Philadelphia and Adam Gase has yet to prove anything as an NFL head coach. They do have a favorable upcoming schedule, so I’m not buying or selling Darnold/Jets stock quite yet.

6: The Falcons are wasting Matt Ryan’s prime.

Matt Ryan completed 30 of 36 pass attempts for 356 yards and 4 touchdowns. His team lost. In the past two seasons, there have been seventeen instances in which a quarterback threw for 350 yards and 11 adjusted net yards per attempt. Fourteen of those quarterbacks won — the other three are Matt Ryan.

Many people on Twitter have begun comparing Ryan to mid-2010’s Drew Brees. Brees was his typical elite self and led the NFL in passing yards four times from 2012-2016, but the Saints finished with a winning record only once. (Ironically, that was the one season in which Brees did not lead the league.) Most player comparisons I come across on Twitter aren’t very accurate or frankly make any sense. This one does.

7: The Texans are ready to contend for the AFC title.

I’ve always been a believer in Watson’s ability to lead teams to greatness. The man absolutely destroyed Alabama in two national title games. Simply put, he’s not afraid of dynasties.

Watson just walked into Kansas City and took down Mahomes’ Chiefs. Back in 2017, in his second career NFL start, he threw for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns in Foxboro. Though the Texans narrowly lost 33-30, Watson’s never shied away from a formidable foe. The Tunsil trade has dramatically helped Houston protect Watson and the Texans’ receiving core of DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Keke Coutee and Kenny Stills might be the league’s best.

To be clear, Houston isn’t as good as the Patriots or the Chiefs (more on that in a minute), yet. But Watson’s incredible talent and innate leadership gives Houston a chance in any playoff game.

8: Don’t overreact to the Chiefs’ two straight losses.

Patrick Mahomes looks human and the Chiefs have dropped two straight games. How are they supposed to compete with the mighty Patriots, who’ve only allowed a single passing touchdown all season?

Well, it starts in the training room. Mahomes has been battling an ankle injury nearly all season and Tyreek Hill just returned this week. They’re also down two starting offensive lineman, star defensive tackle Chris Jones, starting corner Kendall Fuller and the perpetually injured Sammy Watkins has another leg injury.

While the Patriots defense has feasted against a putrid slate of quarterbacks, the Patriots offense has quietly struggled since Week 3. They aren’t the unbeatable empire they appear to be. Provided none of the Chiefs’ injuries are season-threatening, they should be fine come January. Kansas City remains in the same tier as New England, with Houston just behind.

9: The Cowboys might have fooled us all (well, most of us).

After a 3-0 start, the Cowboys find themselves back at .500. Close losses to the Saints and Packers were excusable; a no-show against the Jets is not.

I believed the Cowboys were legitimate Super Bowl contenders. I thought the defense would be a top 10 unit and Dak Prescott would take a massive leap forward with Kellen Moore taking over the offensive coordinator role. The defense has been an abject disaster, ranking 25th in DVOA. Prescott, however, leads all quarterbacks in ESPN’s QBR and the offense ranks 2nd in DVOA.

That’s why I’m not giving up on the Cowboys just yet. I’m more doubtful that a Super Bowl run is coming, for sure, but they are still tied for the lead in the NFC East. Early indications show that only one of the Cowboys and Eagles are making the playoffs, so when Dallas hosts Philadelphia this Sunday night, it could could be a make-or-break contest.

10: The Chargers are every bit as bad as I expected.

Before the season, I said the Chargers would struggle to make the playoffs. While I didn’t expect the absolute onslaught of injuries they’ve faced, it’s not exactly surprising considering their history. Following an embarrasing defeat to the Devin Hodges-led Steelers, the Chargers fall to 2-4.

Things are looking bleak in San Diego Los Angeles. (That was probably unnecessary but did you see the stadium on Sunday?) I don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel, either. That goes for this season’s playoff hopes and the viability of the franchise’s future in Los Angeles.

11: The 49ers continue to shatter my expectations.

Every single week, San Francisco proves me wrong. Coming off a short week, I didn’t think they could beat the Rams in Los Angeles, so of course they did. Their defense ranks 2nd in DVOA, which I never saw coming. I’ve written almost every week how the Niners continue to surprise me, but this should be the last time. I’m officially taking them seriously as NFC contenders.

12: Hiring Freddie Kitchens might have been a mistake.

The Browns blew a 20-6 lead at home to the Seahawks in Week 6. Baker Mayfield threw his 9th, 10th and 11th interceptions of the season, Nick Chubb never sees enough touches and Odell Beckham somehow looked better with Eli Manning. I haven’t given up on Cleveland just yet as their last eight games are laughably easy. However, it’s painfully clear that any competent coach would have gotten the Browns at least 3 or 4 wins by now.

13: Russell Wilson leads the MVP race thus far.

Through six weeks, the MVP race isn’t particularly close. Russell Wilson has been nothing short of magnificent while leading Seattle to a 5-1 start. Wilson’s brilliance doesn’t need any explanation, but if you want one here is a great piece by Robert Mays.

The next two candidates behind Wilson are pretty clearly Watson and Mahomes. The pride of the 2017 draft class are quickly becoming the AFC’s next great rivalry. As of right now, there aren’t any other serious contenders in my eyes. Speaking of…

14: Christian McCaffery is not an MVP candidate.

Sorry, but no running back should win MVP anymore (or ever). I wrote last February on how a running back could win the award, but *spoiler alert*: it’s nearly impossible. Last year, the Rams signed CJ Anderson off the street and he performed just as well as supposed MVP candidate Todd Gurley.

15: Trades I want to see happen before the deadline.

Jalen Ramsey Patrick Peterson to Philadelphia.

AJ Green to San Francisco.

Nick Foles to Chicago.

Melvin Gordon to New England.

OJ Howard to New Orleans.

Marcus Mariota for Jameis Winston (why not?).

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