Week 1 Reactions: Way-Too-Early Victory Laps

There’s no better time for over-reactions than after Week 1. Anything that confirms your priors is fact and anything that goes against them can be chalked up to Week 1 weirdness. Look, I don’t make the rules but the law is the law.

Colts, Rivers struggle as Minshew leads Jags to upset win.

I tried to tell ya. I did my best. Philip Rivers is washed. He is not good anymore. He completed 36 of 46 passes for 363 yards, but threw two picks, including his patented 4th-quarter, game-breaker. The Colts bet on Rivers taking them over the hump — the only worse bet in human history was Mitch Trubisky +2,000 for MVP last season.

On the other hand, the only way I could not possibly love the Colts backfield any more. I drafted Jonathan Taylor to every fantasy team I could this year and Nyheim Hines is a fellow Leesville Road Middle School alum. Our time actually overlapped for a year.

Speaking of the Colts’ backfield, let’s pour one out for Marlon Mack. He’s entering a contract year; and while the rest of his 2017 draft classmates — CMC, Alvin Kamra, Joe Mixon, Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook — got paid, the Colts trade up for a much more talented running back in Jonathan Taylor. Then, the Colts signed Rivers, known for throwing to RBs, (not Mack’s forte) and hyped up Nyheim Hines all offseason. Finally, Mack tears his Achilles in the first half of Week 1. Nobody is gonna pay up for an RB coming of that injury. Awful.

Indianapolis spent the least amount of cap space on their defense and it showed. Garnder Minshew completed 19 of 20 passes with 2 touchdowns. That’s unacceptable. Just wait until they start playing against Deshaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill.

Minshew is legit good. That’s why I never bought the consensus thought that Jacksonville is the worst team in football. He’s obviously not a surefire franchise guy, but he’s league-average at worst. Whatever “it” is, he has it. The Jags are going to be like the Dolphins were late in 2019, but with a better quarterback.

The Seahawks are the class of the NFC.

The pass-heaviest team in the NFL on first/second downs (Quarters 1-3) was none other than the Seattle fucking Seahawks. Russell Wilson had the same number of touchdowns as incompletions despite throwing 35 passes. He led all quarterbacks in EPA per play at .595. Small sample size, sure, but that’s fucking absurd — Lamar Jackson ranked second at .490.

If Patrick Mahomes is Michael Scott, Wilson is Jim Halpert and Lamar Jackson is Dwight Schrute. Dwight may be the assistant-to-the-regional manager, but when the game is on the line, you want Jim in charge. (This The Office reference was to get my sister to finally read one of my articles.)

Defensively, Seattle got torched by basically every Falcon receiver. I think Roddy White had 100 yards in this game. It was a classic Matt Ryan performance as he threw for 450 yards with much of it coming in garbage time. Jamal Adams — my DPOY pick — looked electric all over the field, blitzing like eleven times.

Additionally, on a 4th-and-five from Atlanta’s 38-yard line, Caroll elected to go for it. While Seattle was in the lead! Wilson connected with DK Metcalf on a spectacular bomb for a touchdown. That was on the opening drive of the second half too, in a 14-12 game. That was no desperation play — that was an act of aggression. That’s a new wrinkle for Seattle.

Look, it’s only Week 1, but it’s hard to argue Seattle is not the best team in the NFC. I hear you Saints fans, but I want my quarterback to complete something other than a slant.

Green Bay inflicts their will on Minnesota.

At the last second, I switched my NFC North division pick from the Vikings to the Packers. On Sunday, Aaron Rodgers made me look like both a genius and a idiot. In my second-to-last draft, I closed the NFC North section with something along the lines of “The Packers will open the year with a win over Minnesota. They could actually run away and hide with this division sooner than we think”. I scraped it because I am #coward.

I changed my opinion on Minnesota because I realized that even great coaches have bad years. Case in point: The Patriots had the worst defense in football just three years ago. Mike Zimmer is among the elite defensive minds in the league, but even he can’t overcome this atrocious Vikings secondary. Maybe he can get them back to average by season’s end, but it’s probably going to be too little, too late.

Matt Patricia chokes. Again.

Speaking of the NFC North, the Lion’s Den became a stealthy home for media members who passively believed in the Lion’s winning the NFC North. I stayed far away — even though I like their offense — because of the pencil-wielding dufus calling the shots. Blame D’Andre Swift if you wish, but Matt Patricia blew this game.

Opposite an incompetent coach stood an incompetent quarterback, for three quarters at least. Mitchell Trubisky lived up (down?) to expectations despite facing a Detroit defense thrashed by injuries, offseason departures and an ejection. But suddenly, Money Mitch came alive in the fourth quarter as Patricia tucked his tail into his pants.

This is how Green Bay runs away with this division. The Vikings, Lions and Bears beat up on each other and get shredded in out-of-division games (they face the NFC South this year).

Cam Newton is back.

Newton was his old self again Sunday. He ran 15 (!) times for 75 yards and two touchdowns. He only threw for 155 yards, but he completed 79 percent of his passes. If N’Keal Harry didn’t fumble the ball out of the end-zone, Newton would’ve had a touchdown through the air as well.

The main takeaway here is that Josh McDaniels and the Patriots were willing to adapt their scheme to fit around Cam. That shouldn’t be much of a surprise because designing schemes around their players’ strengths is exactly why the Patriots have been dominant for 20 years. Honestly, it’s just awesome to see Cam being Cam on Sundays again.

Uh Oh in San Francisco?

Of all the way-too-early victory laps, this is among the way-too-earliest. The Niners are missing basically all their wide receivers and George Kittle got banged up in this one, too.

Still, 2019’s #2 defense got torched by DeAndre Hopkins in his Cardinals debut. Kyler Murray made a few splash runs, but spent the majority of the day dinking and dunking. Arizona did not play well enough to beat a defending NFC champion, but they did.

San Francisco made the Super Bowl on the backs of an outlier good year from their defense and Kyle Shanahan creating near-perfect circumstances around an average quarterback. That is always a recipe for taking a significant step back the following year.

If you still believe in the 49ers, you would point to a weird offseason and all of the injuries. But every team had a weird offseason. What if Deebo Samuel’s foot doesn’t quite heal right? What if Kittle is dinged up all year? What if Jimmy G simply isn’t good? The NFC West is loaded and if SF isn’t careful, first-to-worst is within their range of outcomes.

Tom Brady and Drew Brees Disappoint.

Expecting much from Brady in his Bucs debut was a bit overzealous. A new team, new system, and minimal offseason is a recipe for a slow start. I expect Tampa to improve as the season moves along, but my expectations have been tempered from Day 1.

No team had more continuity than Brees and the Saints, yet Brees struggled mightily against Tampa’s average pass defense (the run defense was elite in 2019). He averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt and had a completion percentage 7.9 percent below expectation. Those numbers are reminiscent of December 2018 and 2019, when Brees’ play dropped off late in the season. There’s a non-zero, maybe even decent chance Brees is officially cooked. Without a deep passing game, New Orleans will need to be perfectly in-sync offensively and the defense to elevate into a top-three unit.

Or maybe those old farts just need some time to get into game shape. Yeah, it’s probably that.

Pittsburgh returns to AFC contention.

No team played exactly how I thought they would more than Pittsburgh. Big Ben looked Big Washed early, but rallied as his arm loosened up and the Steelers opened the play book a bit. The defense terrorized Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and myself.

Saquon pic.twitter.com/1zFL9zpSPZ

— Nolan Hughes (@nolan_hughes24) September 14, 2020

It’s hard to take much away from this game, though. The Giants’ OL and secondary are terrible, which likely exaggerated how well Ben and the defense played. All we really want to see in Week 1 of a COVID-offseason are signs of life, and Pittsburgh had a pulse.

Jaheim Allen does his thing.

For those who don’t understand the joke, allow me to invite you to the inner circle. Bomani Jones coined this nickname for Josh Allen awhile back. Basically, Allen exudes all the traits we typically associate with black quarterbacks — athleticism, big arm, minimal accuracy, not smart with the ball — but since he’s white, we don’t think of him that way. Thus, “Jaheim” was born.

Obviously, I’m a fan of the joke. The best jokes have an element of truth; in this case the element makes up the entire thing. Jaheim did his thing against the Jets, rushing 14 times for 57 yards with a touchdown and two unforced fumbles. He did prove me wrong by reaching 300 passing yards for the first time in his career, but it took him 46 attempts against a pitiful Jets defense. He also missed a WIDE OPEN John Brown in the end zone, which would have put the game away early in the fourth quarter. Instead, it “forced” the Bills to settle for a field goal. (I’d have went for it on 4th and goal from the four yard line.)

Credit where credit is due, Allen made a bunch of really good plays on Sunday. I’m still highly skeptical of the Bills long-term ability to compete with him as the quarterback, though. This has all the makings of a 2017 Jaguars/2018 Bears season, where a great defense and perfect supporting cast buoys terrible quarterback play into a playoff win, wasting a true Super Bowl window. Some may argue the true ceiling of the Bills resembles the 2015 Panthers or 2019 49ers, who were built from a similar mold. The obvious problem is that Allen is not as good as Cam Newton (despite vague play-style similarities) and has not proven to better than Garoppolo.

I write a lot about Allen, including a feature story at the end of last season. I understand why Bills Mafia loves the guy. I really do. He’s a nobody from nowhere who is mocked endlessly, just like us Buffalonians — but he simply is not a Super Bowl winning quarterback. The Bills have sucked for the entirety of my lifetime but I refuse to settle for mediocrity. I’ll try to shut up for at least a few weeks (unless he blows one of these upcoming easy wins).

Quick Hitters

• Lamar Jackson is still awesome.
• The Panthers new offense is very much a joy to watch.
• Washington is more than a little scrappy; they might have the best defensive front in football.
• Joe Burrow looked poised despite on overwhelming Chargers’ pass rush.
• Jared Goff forgot how to throw touchdowns, but Malcom Brown is apparently Todd Gurley 2.0.
• Mike McCarthy is just Jason Garrett with a PFF stamp on his passport.
• The Titans kickers fucking suck.