Starting this week, Scott Erland and I will each be making five picks against the spread. Scott and I previously worked together on a massive piece about the greatest names in sports history (check it out!).
We will be using the consensus lines from Vegas Insider to keep things simple. As the season progresses, we’ll keep track of our record each week and determine a winner at the end of the season. I think that’s enough rules. Let’s get to the picks.
Scott’s Picks
LA Chargers -2 at Detroit
Despite their issues on the offensive line, the Chargers looked great offensively in Week 1. If Austin Ekeler can come close to replicating his performance against the Colts, he can go wild against the lowly Lions, who gave up 18 fourth-quarter points to the Cardinals to settle for a tie, which is a very Lions thing to do. Also, Matt Patricia might just not be a good head coach. Time will tell on that front but all signs seem to suggest that he is not.
Arizona +13 at Baltimore
Speaking of the Cardinals, I’m picking them to cover against Baltimore this week. This might look stupid retroactively, but I need to see a few more weeks of sustained production from Lamar Jackson before I proclaim him the new face of the NFL. And he needs to do it against a real NFL team. Arizona is barely that and is led by a very unproven coach, but I think they keep it within two touchdowns in a loss. I like Kyler Murray and very much want him to succeed.
Kansas City -7 at Oakland
This one seems like a no-brainer. Kansas City has run amok of the AFC West in recent years and they have been an absolute juggernaut offensively since Mahomes took over the reins last season. The coaching disparity is wide between Andy Reid’s offensive brilliance and Jon Gruden’s recent ineptitude. No Tyreek Hill for Kansas City, but I don’t see any reason why they don’t win this game by at least a touchdown, especially if Watkins is all of the sudden really good.
Minnesota +3 at Green Bay
The Vikings looked good in Week 1’s win over the Falcons, who might not be good. Atlanta didn’t score a point until the fourth quarter and ended with just 73 yards rushing. It seems counterintuitive to pick a road team in Lambeau against Aaron Rodgers, but the Green Bay receiving core is still lacking, Matt LaFleur is still working on developing that offense and the Vikings are just better in my opinion. I worry about Cousins but hopefully he doesn’t implode. We will see, but this should be a really fun game between two of the league’s biggest rivals.
Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Seattle
Ok, let me explain. Yes, I know that Pittsburgh looked terrible last week. No Le’Veon Bell or Antonio Brown is obviously going to impact that offense’s ceiling, particularly if Big Ben is washed up. However, I’m going to trust that they rebound this week. The Steelers are a proud franchise and they are playing at home, which should help matters substantially. The Patriots are also going to beat the living shit out of a lot of teams and probably win another Super Bowl this season, which makes me hate everything. And, I just don’t think Seattle is very good. So I’m rolling the dice that the Steelers remember that the season has, in fact, started.
Nolan’s Picks
Kansas City -7 at Oakland
We’re in agreement here. The Chiefs offense, even sans Tyreek Hill, is absolutely lethal. The Raiders already stood no chance and just lost 1st-round rookie Jonathan Abram for the season. Derek Carr isn’t beating Patrick Mahomes in a shootout, nor will he keep things interesting.
Cincinnati -1.5 vs San Francisco
I don’t understand this line. Doesn’t the line for home teams start at -3 and adjust in favor of the better team? Does anyone really think San Francisco (who were literally gifted a win by Jameis Winston) is better than Cincinnati (who nearly won on the road in Seattle)? I think the 49ers are on the verge of an implosion and the Bengals looked borderline good last week. I like this pick a whole lot, which makes me feel uneasy because, well, it’s the Bengals.
Also, I’m officially in on Zac Taylor. I don’t know if he’s a good coach yet, but he’s already proven to be more than simply a colleague of Sean McVay.
Philadelphia -2 at Atlanta
Ohh baby give me all the Eagles love here. Before the season, I thought Atlanta could win the NFC South. After Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Carolina lost in Week 1 and whatever the hell you want to call Thursday night’s Panthers-Bucs game, it turns out that division might be complete garbage, including the Falcons. On the other hand, I picked the Eagles to make the Super Bowl in my preseason picks. Philadelphia started slow in Week 1, but once Carson Wentz dialed up the deep ball the Eagles dominated the second half. This is a no-brainer at -1.5.
LA Rams -2 vs New Orleans
Again, home teams start at -3, so the consensus is that the Saints are slightly better than the Rams? I’m sorry I just don’t see it. The Texans receivers ran rampant in the Saints secondary last week. Now they’ll have to corral Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, while the pass rush will have to get past a genuinely good offensive line (compared to Houston’s collection of human turnstiles). While the Saints worry about last year’s NFC title game, Jared Goff and the Rams will focus on the present and take the rematch by at least a field goal.
Cleveland -6.5 at NY Jets
Despite the certified ass-kicking at the hands of Scott’s Titans, I will not stray from the Browns bandwagon quite yet. Baker Mayfield thrives off doubters and he has the perfect stage on Monday Night to prove everyone wrong again. Plus, it’s a mini-revenge game for Odell Beckham Jr. at MetLife Stadium. Did I mention Trevor Siemian is starting at quarterback for the Jets? The line is undoubtedly high, especially for an unproven Browns team, but I don’t see how the Jets can keep up if (when) the Browns offense heats up.
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